Blue Dream Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I’ll take p14 and call it a winter. It’ll be 2016 all over again. For sure! Minus the dry slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 41 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I’ll take p14 and call it a winter. It’ll be 2016 all over again. p24 gets everyone nicely... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 ECM is outside the benchmark hopefully it's an eastern outlier on it's ensembles 100 mile move west from 0z for the good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10" for Central Bucks on the goofy kuchera map, not bad for a storm on the outer fringe of the benchmark impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 hours ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Too 'thread the needle' for the weekend - I am going to comfortably rule out anything major. Could be some flakes produced from it still. I'm thinking you may want to reconsider that flight to FL Saturday. Things are changing quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm thinking you may want to reconsider that flight to FL Saturday. Things are changing quickly. And can change back, in a bad/good way, just as quickly. Wednesday is the absolute earliest I would take anything somewhat seriously....hell, it's Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: And can change back, in a bad/good way, just as quickly. Wednesday is the absolute earliest I would take anything somewhat seriously....hell, it's Monday. Starts Friday night...we're in a good spot for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: Starts Friday night...we're in a good spot for now Exactly...it's midday Monday? As a long time follower this will change a million times to make your head spin....hopefully for the best. Not getting hyped before 48hrs....it's just a waste of time IMO unless you're a MET and this is your career/livelihood. 33F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Exactly...it's midday Monday? As a long time follower this will change a million times to make your head spin....hopefully for the best. Not getting hyped before 48hrs....it's just a waste of time IMO unless you're a MET and this is your career/livelihood. 33F Totally agree...maybe this is one that locks in for a few days like that Buffalo storm a few weeks back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 ECM ensembles lean West of the OP, sitting pretty for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, RedSky said: ECM ensembles lean West of the OP, sitting pretty for the moment The 12z control did what I was hoping the OP was going to do. If only a little more energy headed east from main shortwave it would had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Blue Dream said: For sure! Minus the dry slot. That was painful, 4 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: That was painful, 4 hours That absolutely sucked. Sure we had about 20” but it could’ve been 30 easily lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 55 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Exactly...it's midday Monday? As a long time follower this will change a million times to make your head spin....hopefully for the best. Not getting hyped before 48hrs....it's just a waste of time IMO unless you're a MET and this is your career/livelihood. 33F Models do tend to pick out the big ones days out. Not saying this will be the case, especially in the pattern we are in, but nearly every models has us with a SECS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm thinking you may want to reconsider that flight to FL Saturday. Things are changing quickly. Hi Ralph, I changed the flight to 9 AM on Friday instead a few hours ago. I think the setup has a lot of boom or bust potential still. I don't think most people like to be in the strike zone this far out that's why I kind of have doubts. I could see this thing going right OTS but better safe than sorry. PS I have defended the trolls off your back in the MA forum. We will not stand for these attacks. -RSC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Exactly...it's midday Monday? As a long time follower this will change a million times to make your head spin....hopefully for the best. Not getting hyped before 48hrs....it's just a waste of time IMO unless you're a MET and this is your career/livelihood. 33F Bet you can't log off and stay away until Thursday morning. Just a hunch. I dont think anyone has it locked in....silly to even think that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Bet you can't log off and stay away until Thursday morning. Just a hunch. I dont think anyone has it locked in....silly to even think that. Mainly sports...weather is secondary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I do not believe we get jack crap. OTS or hits Long island Boston area. The cards are not in play at this time. That storm has to be at least 150 miles more sw and wrapped around and amped like hell. The best storms are down at the BM at the Chesapeake Bay. Furthermore, the mid range models are so far off in this PA jet progressive pattern that it is scary. When the Nam shows it at the 60 hour mark, I will bite at it. Until then time to just watch the mood flakes fall tonight. Honestly this weather pattern is equal to the volatility of todays stock market activity - and thats bad. I might as well be reading the futures in the market for our weather models. LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z says NO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: 18z says NO. FWIW, ICON has the low tucked in closer to the coast on the 18Z vs. 12Z. Also, don't we typically disregard 06 and 18Z runs due to them being extrapolations on old data? I mean, of course, unless they indicate bombogenesis and a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 31 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: 18z says NO. windshield wiper effect all week long.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 hours ago, CoolHandMike said: FWIW, ICON has the low tucked in closer to the coast on the 18Z vs. 12Z. Also, don't we typically disregard 06 and 18Z runs due to them being extrapolations on old data? I mean, of course, unless they indicate bombogenesis and a HECS. 18z ECM is good enough too now but many are wary do to the GFS having this air of superiority...omg did I actually say that yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Silver lining in the 0z runs trending towards a coastal scraper is long range is finally ending this endless arctic stupid cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 hours ago, Albedoman said: I do not believe we get jack crap. OTS or hits Long island Boston area. The cards are not in play at this time. That storm has to be at least 150 miles more sw and wrapped around and amped like hell. The best storms are down at the BM at the Chesapeake Bay. Furthermore, the mid range models are so far off in this PA jet progressive pattern that it is scary. When the Nam shows it at the 60 hour mark, I will bite at it. Until then time to just watch the mood flakes fall tonight. Honestly this weather pattern is equal to the volatility of todays stock market activity - and thats bad. I might as well be reading the futures in the market for our weather models. LOL Lets Debbie Downer now , can't do any worse at this time. The GFS and GEM 0Z runs tonight were a joke as they both have swinging volatility worse than the stock market today. The GEM has 18 inches at noon, nothing at midnight. How the hell can you find a trend in that outcome is beyond me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Albedoman said: Lets Debbie Downer now , can't do any worse at this time. The GFS and GEM 0Z runs tonight were a joke as they both have swinging volatility worse than the stock market today. The GEM has 18 inches at noon, nothing at midnight. How the hell can you find a trend in that outcome is beyond me. The new thing now is to scrutinize the ensembles for trends, when the individual ensembles all have different outcomes east, south, north and west which can lead to any outcome imaginable. They are in a way a multiverse for a storm. Five years ago it was mainly the ops and the SREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 31 minutes ago, RedSky said: Silver lining in the 0z runs trending towards a coastal scraper is long range is finally ending this endless arctic stupid cold Philly is average for the month temp wise...ask Glenn. Hell, we need cold to have any sort of chance of some "real snow" not over the night car toppers.... 33F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Philly is average for the month temp wise...ask Glenn. Hell, we need cold to have any sort of chance of some "real snow" not over the night car toppers.... 33F NYC is finishing -3F not very far away somethings up with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: NYC is finishing -3F not very far away somethings up with that I heard it from another local MET within the week and said WTF? Then when I heard it from Glenn today...well there may be something to this? Not a stat geek so who knows? Maybe someone can shed light.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I heard it from another local MET within the week and said WTF? Then when I heard it from Glenn today...well there may be something to this? Not a stat geek so who knows? Maybe someone can shed light.. Not gonna lie no longer a fan of a cold month if there is below normal snows and several missed chances. After this week Philly will be below normal. But could have been worse guidance fell short of the depth of cold being projected two weeks ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Not gonna lie no longer a fan of a cold month if there is below normal snows and several missed chances. After this week Philly will be below normal. But could have been worse guidance fell short of the depth of cold being projected two weeks ago. Cool, to each his own...it's a preference. I would like it to stay 32F/under 24/7 from start/end winter regardless of snow potentials. If snow happens great...but I don't want jacked up 50-60F in winter. It just sucks since Spring/Summer is right around the corner... 33F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now