JTA66 Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: As an interesting note this morning, apparently a snow shower/squall came through here overnight/early this morning and dusted the cars and some of the grass. It was actually more than anything that I got with that band yesterday, which yielded a few flurries at best. I expect the fact that the temps finally went below freezing after midnight might have helped with any stickage. Currently 24 with dp 20. Looks like I got clipped by it too, more frosted flakes out there this morning. 21F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 A few flurries flying this AM in NW Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Well most if not all of the models see "something" for the Jan. 29 timeframe. There are some variations of "where" but it seems pretty interesting that they lined up (although the Ukie is way to the SE)... Otherwise I'm currently at 25 with dp 22. Awesome trends...do we have to worry about this going too far west now lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 There is going to be a lot of barking and howling this week……Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: Awesome trends...do we have to worry about this going too far west now lol? There are two short waves(sw) that are responsible for this event. Where and when they phase is important, or if they do at all. My biggest concern is that there is no blocking and if the phase is intense it'll wind up hugging the coast and bring mix or all rain. What I do know weather has no memory so ignore analogs and second what is this years trends. OTS or cutters/apps runners. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Blue Dream said: Awesome trends...do we have to worry about this going too far west now lol? It will depend on the amplitude of any propagating trough and whether that system gets kicked OTS or crawls up along the coast. We are firmly in the midrange territory where these models tend to do poorly, jockeying back and forth with solutions, although they at least all agree "something" is afoot. Looks like I bottomed out at 23 and currently partly cloudy, with lots of cirrus scattered around, and back up to 24 with dp 18. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 17 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: It will depend on the amplitude of any propagating trough and whether that system gets kicked OTS or crawls up along the coast. We are firmly in the midrange territory where these models tend to do poorly, jockeying back and forth with solutions., although they at least all agree "something" is afoot. Looks like I bottomed out at 23 and currently partly cloudy, with lots of cirrus scattered around, and back up to 24 with dp 18. Don't want that southern piece to drop too far south for the right solution here correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Too 'thread the needle' for the weekend - I am going to comfortably rule out anything major. Could be some flakes produced from it still. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Don't want that southern piece to drop too far south for the right solution here correct? Yup - too deep and it will come inland or crawl along the coast but too shallow and OTS it goes. It's in the amplification (and might also be dependent on what happens with the west coast ridge). There have been some arctic incursions involved in that push. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21chuck Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I am wondering who the current pattern has favored this January? The west has been completely dry. Family in Chicago report very little snow on the season. And we've been cold but without the ingredients necessary to reliably produce good storms. So who in north america has been doing well in terms of snow this winter? Maybe Alaska? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 All you can say about the weekend is this is exactly where you want to be with most models showing some sort of deep low along the east coast. The windshield wiper effect will be intense this week as we will have folks bailing left and right as one model goes up the Apps and then OTS....no matter how you slice it - this has been a cold and active (but slightly below average snow) January for the area. I think most of us would have signed up for this at the end of December! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, 21chuck said: I am wondering who the current pattern has favored this January? The west has been completely dry. Family in Chicago report very little snow on the season. And we've been cold but without the ingredients necessary to reliably produce good storms. So who in north america has been doing well in terms of snow this winter? Maybe Alaska? Compared to average south of the mason dixon line has done pretty well this month same with SNJ and Delaware too. I think the lake effect areas of the Great Lakes have done good, same with Michigan/Wisconsin/Minnesota. The west coast got slammed in December and probably will again in February. It’s been a tough winter though for the Rockies, Midwest, and Northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, 21chuck said: I am wondering who the current pattern has favored this January? The west has been completely dry. Family in Chicago report very little snow on the season. And we've been cold but without the ingredients necessary to reliably produce good storms. So who in north america has been doing well in terms of snow this winter? Maybe Alaska? La Nina - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2021-la-niña-update-visual-aids 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21chuck Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: La Nina - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2021-la-niña-update-visual-aids Ya I understand it's been La Nina. I guess overall it's been an average La Nina January? Although the blocking in the West has been so strong even Washington has looked pretty dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Regarding the weekend threat, I think it’s foolish to be confident either way on the effects to the area. Probably won’t get a decent read on it until 00z Thursday. Right now leaning towards a miss SE just based on the seasonal trends but it’s close to being amplified enough to get good snows here. Fact is the models have struggled with the N stream all winter long and until those pieces are on land and properly sampled, I don’t think anyone can say definitely this is a miss or apps runner. A few minor changes to the N stream changes the outcome significantly. Will be a good tracker though but I don’t think anyone should become emotionally invested until we get much closer. Would be nice to get this one though after all of the misses this month including in one of our more favorable regimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadzachadam Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Compared to average south of the mason dixon line has done pretty well this month same with SNJ and Delaware too. I think the lake effect areas of the Great Lakes have done good, same with Michigan/Wisconsin/Minnesota. The west coast got slammed in December and probably will again in February. It’s been a tough winter though for the Rockies, Midwest, and Northeast. Charlotte, NC got their first measurable snow in ~3 years and then ended up getting another one less than a week later. I would guess most of NC, VA, WV, and MD are at least slightly above average so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Regarding the weekend threat, I think it’s foolish to be confident either way on the effects to the area. Probably won’t get a decent read on it until 00z Thursday. Right now leaning towards a miss SE just based on the seasonal trends but it’s close to being amplified enough to get good snows here. Fact is the models have struggled with the N stream all winter long and until those pieces are on land and properly sampled, I don’t think anyone can say definitely this is a miss or apps runner. A few minor changes to the N stream changes the outcome significantly. Will be a good tracker though but I don’t think anyone should become emotionally invested until we get much closer. Would be nice to get this one though after all of the misses this month including in one of our more favorable regimes. I think everything is on the table, but it’s looking more like we get something. Should be fun to follow. The 12z Canadian was actually a bit west for comfort for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: I think everything is on the table, but it’s looking more like we get something. Should be fun to follow. The 12z Canadian was actually a bit west for comfort for some. Oh Canada! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Oh Canada! Wow!! Riding the mix line lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Gfs is pretty good too. Good start to the 12z runs but we are still an eternity away, still a lot on the table and some areas could be fighting mixing if it continues back nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Gfs is pretty good too. Good start to the 12z runs but we are still an eternity away, still a lot on the table and some areas could be fighting mixing if it continues back nw. Ensembles have been trending much better too...I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 (Never thought I'd write this but) nice seeing the GFS on our side. But yeah, Saturday is forever away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Glenn showing the latest GFS w/ some excitement (West) as in bullish compared to the Euro. Also, to my disbelief, he says Philly is practically average for the month as far as temps as of today. I thought -1/-2+ below... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 GEFS largest concentration of members is a benchmark track like the CMC. SECS or MECS material but an eternity to go. Don't think this can be a HECS for this area and south even with an ideal track it's a fast moving motor scooter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Can we invoke the weekend rule?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 54 minutes ago, 21chuck said: Ya I understand it's been La Nina. I guess overall it's been an average La Nina January? Although the blocking in the West has been so strong even Washington has looked pretty dry Coastal Washington state hasn't really been dry (in fact, the precip was excessive earlier in the winter) but other parts along the west coast have dried out recently where wild fires have been firing up sortof "off season". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Can we invoke the weekend rule?? It's one of the ten commandments in the weenie handbook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Half of the gfs ensembles are a hit, several huge hitters in there as well(18”+). Still half are misses either East or west though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 ^ P26 happens and there's no coming back for me, off to Mars 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: ^ P26 happens and there's no coming back for me, off to Mars I’ll take p14 and call it a winter. It’ll be 2016 all over again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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