Hurricane Agnes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Looks like my "high" of 44 will have occurred at midnight and I am currently at 38 with dp 37 and some light rain. Currently have 0.25" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 hours ago, hazwoper said: I don’t think anyone expected those numbers from an anafront Cold chasing precip works out about 1 in 20 times at best for this area outside of the higher elevations in the far N and W areas of this subforum. Odds are only a bit better in getting a snowstorm to pan out during a stretch of good teleconnections in the pattern of the N hemisphere. Clock is ticking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Only 10 days out, what can go wrong? GFS has been hyping this time period though for several runs. Potential is there. But with how much changes we see in the N stream from run to run, highly, highly unlikely this verifies. Fun to imagine though... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Only 10 days out, what can go wrong? GFS has been hyping this time period though for several runs. Potential is there. But with how much changes we see in the N stream from run to run, highly, highly unlikely this verifies. Fun to imagine though... 958 of the VA coast would be fun…one can dream as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 This is the winter I was expecting in December. Averaging slightly below average precipitation with a weak southern jet has gone as expected. The January cold is the anomaly. ECM wants to end the show and stamp it a dead ratter in February. Weather World says not so fast, unfortunately they are only on board with the cold and are also going with a dry pattern with a "parade of clippers" their words not mine lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Only 10 days out, what can go wrong? GFS has been hyping this time period though for several runs. Potential is there. But with how much changes we see in the N stream from run to run, highly, highly unlikely this verifies. Fun to imagine though... "Would you look at it? Just look at it!!!" That's what came into my head seeing this. Ahhhhh at least I can look at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 People all crazy hopped up today over a day 10 GFS fantasy blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Only 10 days out, what can go wrong? GFS has been hyping this time period though for several runs. Potential is there. But with how much changes we see in the N stream from run to run, highly, highly unlikely this verifies. Fun to imagine though... That would be the cover of the new edition KU book on winter storms ... verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, RedSky said: People all crazy hopped up today over a day 10 GFS fantasy blizzard Good the see it isn't just the GGEM dishing out a MECS every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: People all crazy hopped up today over a day 10 GFS fantasy blizzard If the HRRR has it in 9 1/2 days, I'll get interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: If the HRRR has it in 9 1/2 days, I'll get interested. Desperation is rampant now, the MA peeps were flaunting those HrrRr runs yesterday I was like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: People all crazy hopped up today over a day 10 GFS fantasy blizzard And one that the ensembles have sliding OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: And one that the ensembles have sliding OTS. Don't kill the sugar highs even before the eurotrash runs Agnes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 A 1014 clipper that won't even re-frost my mini wheats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: Don't kill the sugar highs even before the eurotrash runs Agnes Waiting for the 12z Euro (not all the way done yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 my goal this winter is to not even so much as *pick up* a snow shovel and so far so good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Maybe Biden can dole out a rat winter stimulus package 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: And one that the ensembles have sliding OTS. Ensembles were awful for last weeks aps cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Ensembles were awful for last weeks aps cutter Well the Euro sortof verified that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Well the Euro sortof verified that. Euro has been dreadful since upgrade (I can pull out all the weenie nonsense too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Euro has been dreadful since upgrade (I can pull out all the weenie nonsense too) I agree. I think it has been habit to still embrace it and continue to trash the upgraded GFS and NAM (the NAM actually has improved). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I agree. I think it has been habit to still embrace it and continue to trash the upgraded GFS and NAM (the NAM actually has improved). In the end, its something for us all to track, and likely kill all of our hopes in a few days time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, hazwoper said: In the end, its something for us all to track, and likely kill all of our hopes in a few days time..... Gives me practice fooling around with the model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 After sitting at or above freezing all day, I finally dropped below it sometime after sunset (5 pm) and at that point, the dp began to fall off the cliff. Currently a breezy 27 with dp down to 11 and continuing to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Like Snow Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 This winter sucks! I waited all year. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 PHL is currently sitting at 3.9" of snow this year. There's been 49 winters year to date with 4" or less at this time. Of those 49, only 12 featured normal or above normal snowfall on the year and almost all of those were Nino's. 08-09 was I think the only nina that finished with normal snowfall and it was a weaker Nina than this one. Historically, odds are not with us getting close to normal snowfall in a Nina with this little amount of snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 11 hours ago, I Like Snow said: This winter sucks! I waited all year. I think we all wait a year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: PHL is currently sitting at 3.9" of snow this year. There's been 49 winters year to date with 4" or less at this time. Of those 49, only 12 featured normal or above normal snowfall on the year and almost all of those were Nino's. 08-09 was I think the only nina that finished with normal snowfall and it was a weaker Nina than this one. Historically, odds are not with us getting close to normal snowfall in a Nina with this little amount of snow so far. I'm at 7.8 for the winter up here . It sucks seeing places to our south with more than us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 45 minutes ago, The Iceman said: PHL is currently sitting at 3.9" of snow this year. There's been 49 winters year to date with 4" or less at this time. Of those 49, only 12 featured normal or above normal snowfall on the year and almost all of those were Nino's. 08-09 was I think the only nina that finished with normal snowfall and it was a weaker Nina than this one. Historically, odds are not with us getting close to normal snowfall in a Nina with this little amount of snow so far. Atlantic City is at 17-18" so far. When was the last winter AC beat Philly in snowfall? I think Allentown only has 8" or so....when was the last time AC beat Allentown in snow? The next 10+ days don't look great as far as precip and this cold air we're having presently won't last forever so.... 18F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Extreme fantasy GFS run for next weekend! LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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