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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

We're in the sweet spot...overachiever?

27F

Dang. I kinda hope not, but for purely selfish reasons. This would mean my drive in to SNJ in the morning would be fine, but getting home would be a nightmare. Maybe I'll pack an overnight bag and stay down there Thursday night...

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Not really expecting much here near Philly tomorrow. I don't see anyone mentioning this but it shows rain to start and then a switchover. Maybe and inch or 2, but I would gladly welcome 4" since I could use it as an excuse to work from home tomorrow.

I am still interested in the next one. I think it's OK to be out of the strike zone right now but if we don't get any closer to a solution by 0z tonight, I'll be second guessing.

-RSC

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29 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

Not really expecting much here near Philly tomorrow. I don't see anyone mentioning this but it shows rain to start and then a switchover. Maybe and inch or 2, but I would gladly welcome 4" since I could use it as an excuse to work from home tomorrow.

I am still interested in the next one. I think it's OK to be out of the strike zone right now but if we don't get any closer to a solution by 0z tonight, I'll be second guessing.

-RSC

Most of the posts above are about tomorrow's event. Probably the big event for the week. Rest assured, we're all over it here as are the pros at Mt Holly.

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34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Most of the posts above are about tomorrow's event. Probably the big event for the week. Rest assured, we're all over it here as are the pros at Mt Holly.

I am aware we've been looking at tomorrow Ralph! I am thinking it is less than some of the higher maps show is all. The next one will work out, I am working on the negotiations for you as we speak. Expect a hit by 18z

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The weekend threat is dead, zero shot it comes back. Tomorrow looks more like a c-1" event more than 2-4" as temps seem borderline but we'll see. The long range HRRR is looking juicy but the latest NAM isn't so who knows. Rest of the month may be cold due to the +PNA but with the +ao/+nao it's going to take some luck to get a significant event. Best chances at snow may be from the clippers. Feb is looking like a punt month after the PNA goes back negative. Maybe March will rock?

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50 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

The weekend threat is dead, zero shot it comes back. Tomorrow looks more like a c-1" event more than 2-4" as temps seem borderline but we'll see. The long range HRRR is looking juicy but the latest NAM isn't so who knows. Rest of the month may be cold due to the +PNA but with the +ao/+nao it's going to take some luck to get a significant event. Best chances at snow may be from the clippers. Feb is looking like a punt month after the PNA goes back negative. Maybe March will rock?

I love the reverse psychology here sir, touche. It is not over for sure, 4-5 days out. Some men would say this is exactly where you want to be. If nothing changes by 0z tonight, I'd start having doubts. I agree about tonight/tomorrow completely and agree about February. I hope you are wrong about March, nothing is a worse than a delayed start to striper season!

-RSC

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27 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

I love the reverse psychology here sir, touche. It is not over for sure, 4-5 days out. Some men would say this is exactly where you want to be. If nothing changes by 0z tonight, I'd start having doubts. I agree about tonight/tomorrow completely and agree about February. I hope you are wrong about March, nothing is a worse than a delayed start to striper season!

-RSC

No such thing. It never ends. Im still picking up keepers here and there at LBI fwiw. Bundle up thats all.

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26 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

I love the reverse psychology here sir, touche. It is not over for sure, 4-5 days out. Some men would say this is exactly where you want to be. If nothing changes by 0z tonight, I'd start having doubts. I agree about tonight/tomorrow completely and agree about February. I hope you are wrong about March, nothing is a worse than a delayed start to striper season!

-RSC

Weekend even is really only 3 days out now and GFS moved further SE with the low at 12z. 4-5 days away on the 2nd wave I guess but that is further SE as well and some models don't even have the 2nd wave. Stick a fork in it imo. Tomorrow looks good on the GFS though, in line with some of the meso's that bring 2-4" but still skeptical with the temps being what they are especially if the NAM's/RGEM's thermals are correct. 

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

No such thing. It never ends. Im still picking up keepers here and there at LBI fwiw. Bundle up thats all.

Off the beach? It's cold as hell, that's hardcore Ralph. I went NYE and got a 34" chunky slob but that was the last time. This year is a weird one for sure. I would say you are right it never *actually* ends but you know what I mean. The 'run' per say gets delayed a bit with a cold cold cold March.

 

GFS coming in now for tomorrow making us look silly with 3-4" predictions.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

The weekend threat is dead, zero shot it comes back. Tomorrow looks more like a c-1" event more than 2-4" as temps seem borderline but we'll see. The long range HRRR is looking juicy but the latest NAM isn't so who knows. Rest of the month may be cold due to the +PNA but with the +ao/+nao it's going to take some luck to get a significant event. Best chances at snow may be from the clippers. Feb is looking like a punt month after the PNA goes back negative. Maybe March will rock?

NBC10 went from 1-2" this morning to 1-3" for overnight/tomorrow as I watch their 11am newcast and still has a chance of snow for Sat when I think that's dead in the water....maybe Del/S Jersey.

42F/Gusty

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25 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

NBC10 went from 1-2" this morning to 1-3" for overnight/tomorrow as I watch their 11am newcast and still has a chance of snow for Sat when I think that's dead in the water....maybe Del/S Jersey.

42F/Gusty

Local news is always late to the party. I am willing to give it to 00z runs before I close up the bridge...

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19 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Local news is always late to the party. I am willing to give it to 00z runs before I close up the bridge...

Oh, I know...just watch it for the hell of it. But I thought it was strange they upped tonight's event to 1-3" from 1-2" earlier this morning...

45F

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CMC has like 48 hours of light snow from the 25th to the 27th as a clipper turns into a miller B. Would be pretty funny if that verified. 6-10" over a 48 hour period :lol:  but that is a period to watch as the GFS has something similar but timing is just off a bit. 28-29th period also bears watching. Should at least have some threats to watch but without real blocking we are at the mercy of good timing. However, looks to be a bunch of cold air in place so that's a step.

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2 hours ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

Off the beach? It's cold as hell, that's hardcore Ralph. I went NYE and got a 34" chunky slob but that was the last time. This year is a weird one for sure. I would say you are right it never *actually* ends but you know what I mean. The 'run' per say gets delayed a bit with a cold cold cold March.

 

GFS coming in now for tomorrow making us look silly with 3-4" predictions.

Best place for the spring run imho.....Cape May. Fish Bayside April thru early May and catch em up. Then move to beachfront  during the migration in early May. I've caught them off the beach as late as the end of June before. Looking forward to short and tee shirt on the beach though so I hear what you're sayin. 

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

IDK how well the HREF has done this winter but it was money with rain events over the summer:

 

image.jpeg

 

The HREF max also has a swath of 4-6" NW of 95 but I think that's pretty unlikely.

Those of us with a little relative elevation N and W will no doubt accumulate better (if there is the qpf)....

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