Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand euro is bringing back the weekend storm for the 11th time Until the gfs honks im on the sidelines. Proof is in the pudding the GFS op is red hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: No other guidance has it and it's only day 5, not even Papa New Guinea model Every other guidance is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Every other guidance is close That only works in horse shoes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 53 minutes ago, RedSky said: Time to place your bets on the 12z ECM total how much snow for Philly through day 10. It's been oscillating from zero to eighteen inches each run for at least a week. *** WIN WIN PHILLY 15" WIN WIN *** 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 OMG cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 32 minutes ago, RedSky said: OMG cold That... can't be real, can it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Sounds more like a wind/rain issue than a humidifier one? Did you check the ceiling? I know that's what I thought at first. No water marks anywhere, just the floor. Also the path of where it was leads me to believe the steam made water. Thanks! Hope your pile holds and we get pummeled this weekend. I'm at 37F and some grupel still coming down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Lady Di said: I know that's what I thought at first. No water marks anywhere, just the floor. Also the path of where it was leads me to believe the steam made water. Thanks! Hope your pile holds and we get pummeled this weekend. I'm at 37F and some grupel still coming down. Thank you too! Maybe it has a leak....we have one that we put in a tray for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: That... can't be real, can it? Last time it was that cold was January 1994 but sure can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Last time it was that cold was January 1994 but sure can ...and one hell of an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Isn't a forecaster alive that predicted January 1994 level cold this winter, in a La Nina no less Climate is a changing How long before the media starts the polar vortex talk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21chuck Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: Over a foot for most of us. Would feel a lot better about this if the Euro wasn’t totally on its own. Really couldn't be a better track for all the folks DC -> Boston that got screwed with this last one. One can dream... Btw some flakes in west philly right now with the wrap around showers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 41 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: That... can't be real, can it? A map that is 10 days out yeah. Will it verify, probably not. Single digits(+0) is more realistic. The coldest it has ever gotten here was -12F in 1984(?) bucks county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: That only works in horse shoes and hand grenades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Lady Di said: I know that's what I thought at first. No water marks anywhere, just the floor. Also the path of where it was leads me to believe the steam made water. Thanks! Hope your pile holds and we get pummeled this weekend. I'm at 37F and some grupel still coming down. 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: Thank you too! Maybe it has a leak....we have one that we put in a tray for that reason. I kept my humidifiers on overnight (LR/DR/BR) but have them set to cycle on/off to aim them for getting it to a certain (approximate) % humidity in the rooms they are in and they did cycle on and off, although even with the rain, it still never got higher than 44% in here with the forced air heat and an average room temp of 70. The dewpoint (which is a temperature to reach saturation) is going to depend on the air temp and it won't go higher than your ambient high temperature (whatever your room temp is). I would agree with Kamu that it could have been a leak since the water was only on the floor and I too have mine sitting on trays (including my bigger 3 gallon one on wheels that sits on a long boot tray thing on the floor). Still overcast with temp 35 dp 28. Luckily it looks like surfaces did dry with the breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Euro has consistently been too fast to eject energy out of the Southwest since it had an upgrade a few years ago. This is something several of us have been nothing wrt how it has performed post-upgrade. Not saying it is wrong, but since it has little support amongst guidance, you have to take it with a grain of salt. The euro also has struggled in the past wrt the pj during Nina years. Methinks the Euro just isn't having a good run this season. Now if the GFS jump on board, then I might come off the sidelines. Until then people should keep their expectations in check. Of course if you pop into a different subforum you will probably be told how great the euro has been and that the eps agree so la la lock it in. Not so fast on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said: A map that is 10 days out yeah. Will it verify, probably not. Single digits(+0) is more realistic. The coldest it has ever gotten here was -12F in 1984(?) bucks county. Plus I think the all-time low in the city (Philly) is -11F in 1934. Quote Feb 9 ...1934... The temperature at PHL bottomed out at -11 degrees , the lowest Feb, and lowest ever, reading since official records began in 1870. (PHL) https://www.weather.gov/phi/hist_phi 2 hours ago, RedSky said: OMG cold I blame you guys for me doing this... Edit to add that the Euro would get close to the GFS IF those listed temps were (accidentally) generated/reported in C vs F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I like the set up for this weekend storm. As always, Kuchera maps are clown maps but whatever floats people's boat I guess. I think by 0Z going into Weds if everything is lined up, go ahead and start the thread folks. Best chance of the season for the snow fans here more than likely. -RSC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Here's an interesting stat that NWS State College had tweeted (retweeted by Mt. Holly) - high of 51 at KPHL just after 3 am this morning - And they had the plot of data going back to the airport's operational data from January 1941 to date. I know we have these types of warmups like this in winter ahead of a cold blast but I guess the timing of this one was highly unusual. Also Mt. Holly extended the Wind Advisory to 1 am as apparently D.C. has been getting gusts down that way as the storm pulls away and a high to the SW builds in, with that gradient apparently shifting this way. Currently on and off snow showers and I actually have a dusting on some of the colder surfaces (grass and some car tops) and 35 with dp 26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Here's an interesting stat that NWS State College had tweeted (retweeted by Mt. Holly) - high of 51 at KPHL just after 3 am this morning - And they had the plot of data going back to the airport's operational data from January 1941 to date. I know we have these types of warmups like this in winter ahead of a cold blast but I guess the timing of this one was highly unusual. Also Mt. Holly extended the Wind Advisory to 1 am as apparently D.C. has been getting gusts down that way as the storm pulls away and a high to the SW builds in, with that gradient apparently shifting this way. Currently on and off snow showers and I actually have a dusting on some of the colder surfaces (grass and some car tops) and 35 with dp 26. Likewise, had a dusting on the grass a couple hours ago. Currently 34 here but the ground is already freezing up from the leftover cold beneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 If you want some eye candy check out the 18z Euro ensembles and control run. Either it'll score a big coup or bust very badly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: If you want some eye candy check out the 18z Euro ensembles and control run. Either it'll score a big coup or bust very badly. Verdict? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: Verdict? Score. Especially in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, yankeex777 said: Verdict? Jury won't be back till the weekend, maybe a day or sooner if consensus is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Maybe a small 1-2" event w/a cold front moving through Thursday night into Friday? First things first before the weekend.... 32F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Maybe a small 1-2" event w/a cold front moving through Thursday night into Friday? First things first before the weekend.... 32F NAM has been on this for a few runs now and the GFS just came around. Would be nice to keep some snowpack on the ground if the big one is going to happen this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Maybe a small 1-2" event w/a cold front moving through Thursday night into Friday? First things first before the weekend.... 32F GFS looks like a wave thurs, a wave Saturday, and a wave Sunday followed by a clipper Monday. Models undecided on which, if any, phase and amplify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: NAM has been on this for a few runs now and the GFS just came around. Would be nice to keep some snowpack on the ground if the big one is going to happen this weekend. I think it may be a cool late night/overnight event with winds and highs only in the 20s Friday...gotta take what we can get. 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS headed in right direction. It will be a bit by 12z tomorrow and we will be going into storm mode Weds at 12z. See you there folks. -RSC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gefs took a nice jump nw. Headed toward a euro solution?? I believe so. That's my hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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