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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

For longer ranges I always rely on the Ensemble runs.....likely the European mean run from 12z is more realistic - keeping in mind some pretty solid cold for the remainder of the month...in my humble view

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Totally agree, long range is for ens. Was just noting the op....all those waves moving thru and hardly a flake in 2 weeks lol. I will say, as I'm sure u r aware, the gfs op has been smoking the gefs, eps, and euro lately. Have a hunch it just handles the northern stream in a Nina better. Thats just a wag tho.

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Super fun time to be a weather fan right now. Snow way down in Dixie this weekend, and then even further later in the week. Crazy crazy stuff. If it actually snows in the pan handle, sheesh that's gonna be fun. Love it. There's some hopium on the 18z GFS too for this area as well.

 

-RSC

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5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Good point Monday mornings warm wind started out as a historic Carolinas HECS a week ago. Then it was a 700 mile off the coast complete miss..then..long range guidance is a joke

 

 

Uh oh 18z already adjusted the southern slider into a hit with eons to go :yikes:

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22 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

Super fun time to be a weather fan right now. Snow way down in Dixie this weekend, and then even further later in the week. Crazy crazy stuff. If it actually snows in the pan handle, sheesh that's gonna be fun. Love it. There's some hopium on the 18z GFS too for this area as well.

 

-RSC

18z looks worlds different that 12z, not surprisingly. So many shortwaves ripping thru the flow. Every model run is going to be an adventure for the next couple of weeks. 

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Uh oh 18z already adjusted the southern slider into a hit with eons to go :yikes:

Should give it plenty of time to cut thru Harrisburg. Did you see the energy behind the low that is causing fits? Remind you of any systems recently or any that may affect the Eastern US maybe tomorrow into Monday? Eerily similar.

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I'm rooting for you Ralph. I don't like how they treat you in the Mid Atlantic forum. It's my job to rib you, not theirs. I stir the pot around here but I don't mean much harm. I just hate kuchera maps and unrealistic expectations. I like tracking the snow but I don't necessarily care if it snows or not as long as we don't get a late spring. No point in trusting models yet but next weekend is worth a look. I'm on call so all I ask is it stays a weekend thing and doesn't go into Monday.

-RSC

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Should give it plenty of time to cut thru Harrisburg. Did you see the energy behind the low that is causing fits? Remind you of any systems recently or any that may affect the Eastern US maybe tomorrow into Monday? Eerily similar.

No way that happens again in what could be the 3rd coldest January in 30 years right?

 

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1 hour ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

I'm rooting for you Ralph. I don't like how they treat you in the Mid Atlantic forum. It's my job to rib you, not theirs. I stir the pot around here but I don't mean much harm. I just hate kuchera maps and unrealistic expectations. I like tracking the snow but I don't necessarily care if it snows or not as long as we don't get a late spring. No point in trusting models yet but next weekend is worth a look. I'm on call so all I ask is it stays a weekend thing and doesn't go into Monday.

-RSC

Mid Atlantic subforum has a "click". I rarely, if ever, post there....just read since the good storms are coming up the coast and they will give some insight.

15F at 8pm

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2 hours ago, jhotdog said:

Look at the moisture coming at us from the gulf. What a shame. 

Swing-and-a-miss on this one, perhaps, but we've still got a good chunk of meteo winter to get through. Still a good system to track and observe; better than nothing. (where's my weenie tag :P)

Coldest it's been yet, and enjoying this at least.

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8 hours ago, Chief83 said:

Worcester, PA.   4:30 PM.   Got up to 20.7 today.  Now 18.1  with a -4.9 dewpoint.  Regardless of the storm event / miss It is COLD.   Lets see what happens with the storm-sometimes there are surprises. (despite the models).

 

 

Congratulations on your new ladder that you  ordered

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20 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's been awhile but am down into the single digits (and the wind hasn't gone calm overnight either).  Low so far this morning has been 9 and am currently 9 with dp -2.  Hopefully that will take out any stinkbugs and lanternflies! :lol:

Sitting at 6°F here currently. I can relate; it'd be nice if that would take care of my gnat problem in my back yard.

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1330 Barnegat, NJ.  36.8/24

Snuck in a 3 hour trail hike with the dog.  I did 4.81 miles on the trail and his GPS collar clocked 26.31 miles.  (Amazing how much ground they cover no matter the conditions) We started before daybreak at 0640 when it was 14.2/4.  

These cutters are frustrating on many levels.  I still have my fingers crossed for this weekend's storm.  Subtle hunts that this will be an interesting system to follow.  I'd much rather have a classic Miller B to follow. 

I believe the winds on this current storm are far overdone, as the transfer is not a classic signature for my region around LBI.  (I do love me a banana  high setup for next weekend though. )  

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