RedSky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I'll sign up for that. Reminds me of those 70's storms where we'd get a front end thump, then flip to rain. Anything that survived froze like a rock as the arctic air poured in on the backside. That's exactly how it would be a 3 to 8" base of cement with the deep cold following, death race tubing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 In other news a very cold January like this in La Nina is bordering on the absurd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 JMA is a mauling fwiw. Damn near perfect track. JV models ftw! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 ECM ensemble median track is up I95 this things a commuter.. JMA is a snow bomb off the coast fwiw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: CMC isn't as far west as the GFS but has the same near-Apps runner concept. Euro appears to be showing the same although looks further east than the others. Could be still seeing mid-range noise. I don't think this will settle down until we get a little closer. Appreciate the feedback. I know that physical sampling is less important now, with the reliability and scoring of satellite sampling, but I still hear my old man's voice saying, "look at where the energy came ashore and follow that line of latitude..." That notion deserves about the same level of merit as "red sky in the morning...," but fundamentals seem to be coming together with this storm. Going to be a monster, regardless. Wish we had a true block in place, and confluence set-up from the ocean storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Is it normal for DC to get more snow the PHL and NYC in these situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 53 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM end result delivers 5-10" in the N&W burbs to a foot in the Lehigh Valley. Big time first half thump then dryslot. I'll take. None of that is sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, dseagull said: Appreciate the feedback. I know that physical sampling is less important now, with the reliability and scoring of satellite sampling, but I still hear my old man's voice saying, "look at where the energy came ashore and follow that line of latitude..." That notion deserves about the same level of merit as "red sky in the morning...," but fundamentals seem to be coming together with this storm. Going to be a monster, regardless. Wish we had a true block in place, and confluence set-up from the ocean storm. Well you have to look at the ENSO states too because the jetstream(s) is(are) what move these systems and the past fall and early winter, the systems have continued to move fairly rapidly (no blocks). You see front after front just rolling through. If any of those systems get cut off and stall, that is when you get walloped. 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA is a mauling fwiw. Damn near perfect track. JV models ftw! 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM ensemble median track is up I95 this things a commuter.. JMA is a snow bomb off the coast fwiw The GFS had that hoochie mama days ago, lost her, and is crying in his beer! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: Is it normal for DC to get more snow the PHL and NYC in these situations? I want to say Super Bowl night 2000 DC got slammed and we were rain after a little front end frozen. Don't know that I'd call it "normal" but it's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: None of that is sleet? All the usual graupel sleet mix to rain would apply before the dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Greater than 50mph winds before an arctic outbreak is a bad idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, NJHurricane said: The runs have really been showing an amped up storm for sure. We are not in NAM range for it yet but it will be interesting to see what that does with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA is a mauling fwiw. Damn near perfect track. JV models ftw! I think it was 2014/15 the last time that model scored a coup.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 38 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: Is it normal for DC to get more snow the PHL and NYC in these situations? with the track as modeled? yes. the ocean can do wonders around these parts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Classic thump to mix/dryslot for i95 at the very least. Most likely outcome attm. There's literally no reason to call that the most likely outcome. So much nonsense Ralph, come on. Outcome could be worse, could be better. It's days away and nothing is consistently dialed in. -RSC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, hazwoper said: with the track as modeled? yes. the ocean can do wonders around these parts Yeah that kind of stings, I kind of want to go out to really far west so everyone gets rain lol. I know that’s silly but a driving rainstorm in the middle of our “epic pattern” is a kick in the nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 hours ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Thanks Ralph for finally being realistic. I often find you are way too optimistic and not realistic but this is a good start buddy!!! -RSC 17 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: There's literally no reason to call that the most likely outcome. So much nonsense Ralph, come on. Outcome could be worse, could be better. It's days away and nothing is consistently dialed in. -RSC Which is it? Optimistic or pessimistic? Sounds like you should practice what you preach. Please: 1) quit trolling the forum and 2) post less, read more. Thank you. And yes, it IS the most likely outcome attm. Almost every red tagger has acknowledged this. Almost every piece of guidance is suggesting this right now. Could it shift? Absolutely. Dependent of wavelength separation, strength of the vort, confluence strength and duration, etc. I agree with that. But seeing this setup several times over the past 25 years of being active in the hobby, this is not a classic clean transfer coastal look NOR a clean Miller A....areas not the way it stands right now on guidance. So I really don't think odds favor an all snow event here attm. I will stick by my thoughts of this being the most likely outcome for now....thump to mix then maybe slot. Hopefully that is optimistic enough for ya. Any snow is good snow I could care less if it taints or flips. Eta: I would love to discuss offline and spare the members your grief, but your inbox is full, might want to look into that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Which is it? Optimistic or pessimistic? Sounds like you should practice what you preach. Please: 1) quit trolling the forum and 2) post less, read more. Thank you. And yes, it IS the most likely outcome attm. Almost every red tagger has acknowledged this. Almost every piece of guidance is suggesting this right now. Could it shift? Absolutely. Dependent of wavelength separation, strength of the vort, confluence strength and duration, etc. I agree with that. But seeing this setup several times over the past 25 years of being active in the hobby, this is not a classic clean transfer coastal look NOR a clean Miller A....areas not the way it stands right now on guidance. So I really don't think odds favor an all snow event here attm. I will stick by my thoughts of this being the most likely outcome for now....thump to mix then maybe slot. Hopefully that is optimistic enough for ya. Any snow is good snow I could care less if it taints or flips. Eta: I would love to discuss offline and spare the members your grief, but your inbox is full, might want to look into that Thump isn't even looking that hot right now, will need to see some shifts SE to get into the good thump action. As it stands, most of 95 corridor is 1-2 inches, then sleet, then a boatload of rain. N and W of 95 is more in true thumpland right now (3-6") before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, The Iceman said: Thump isn't even looking that hot right now, will need to see some shifts SE to get into the good thump action. As it stands, most of 95 corridor is 1-2 inches, then sleet, then a boatload of rain. N and W of 95 is more in true thumpland right now (3-6") before changeover. I think the thump will be fine. I do agree that the flip is looking more likely now. Seeing those SE low level winds roaring at tropical storm force wont help those east of the fall line. Again tho, get the sw to phase a little later to allow the low to traverse more longitude before running NNE would be huge in terms of precip types and changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 my first call 8-12 in for LV, thunder snow/ sleet maybe mixed in with some frizzle on top as we get dry slotted with wrap around snow of 1-2 in Monday afternoon. Then the 30-40 winds kick in with blowing and drifting roads shut in the open rural areas. Then the temps fall bigtime . Then come the parade of alberta clippers afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not sure if I want the howling winds and possible power outages followed by a possible epic cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Not sure if I want the howling winds and possible power outages followed by a possible epic cold shot. Oh man.... I was literally just mumbling that to myself about 5 minutes ago. "Power outage storm". I got one of my sisters a set of 4 portable LED lanterns for Christmas to put around her house because where she lives in Montco, the power lines for her side of the street are strung along a row/stand of woods with a creek in the middle at the other end of the backyard, and the breaking branches take down portions of the lines and/or the transformers, over and over with storms (even with PECO continually pruning around the lines). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: my first call 8-12 in for LV, thunder snow/ sleet maybe mixed in with some frizzle on top as we get dry slotted with wrap around snow of 1-2 in Monday afternoon. Then the 30-40 winds kick in with blowing and drifting roads shut in the open rural areas. Then the temps fall bigtime . Then come the parade of alberta clippers afterwards. I’ll take that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Albedoman said: my first call 8-12 in for LV, thunder snow/ sleet maybe mixed in with some frizzle on top as we get dry slotted with wrap around snow of 1-2 in Monday afternoon. Then the 30-40 winds kick in with blowing and drifting roads shut in the open rural areas. Then the temps fall bigtime . Then come the parade of alberta clippers afterwards. That will not make for fun times truck driving and bulk tanker spring water hauling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think the thump will be fine. I do agree that the flip is looking more likely now. Seeing those SE low level winds roaring at tropical storm force wont help those east of the fall line. Again tho, get the sw to phase a little later to allow the low to traverse more longitude before running NNE would be huge in terms of precip types and changeover. Yes I would love it to be a little weaker as well, let it find that baroclinic zone over the ocean. Seems unlikely at this point but we'll see. I mean even the GFS has it just west of Cape Hatteras before it shows it heading due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Voyager said: That will not make for fun times truck driving and bulk tanker spring water hauling... yep I agree . Getting the hoses on and off the truck will be a hell of job too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, Albedoman said: yep I agree . Getting the hoses on and off the truck will be a hell of job too. Indeed it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WU calling for 6" of snow Sunday night. Interesting... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: WU calling for 6" of snow Sunday night. Interesting... For my area, I'm just taking it (guessing) as a couple inches then some sort of changeover heading into Monday. No shot I'm wasting my time intensely following model after model before later Fri/early Sat...it'll drive one nuts. 28F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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