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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

This is something that I have observed not just this year, but for a number of years now.  The LR seem to catch on to something that is interesting and will provide a good heads-up - whether it is some system or even some major temperature shift (whether a heat signal or cold signal).  Then in comes the MR and excuse my language, when all is said and done, they suck ass for verifying.  So you're left with the SR that although might not match exactly what the LR picked up on, eventually better nails the extent and timing, etc.  It's like the MR tries too hard to do "what ifs" and goes for some of the most extreme solutions.

Got down to 32 as a low this morning and am up to 41 and partly sunny with a deck of high clouds rolling in.  The dp really crashed with the front, going from the mid-50s down to the low 20s and is currently at 24 here.

Agnes!! :blink:

 

I've lowered my bar to seeing high cirrus off to my southeast tomorrow.

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33 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Agnes!! :blink:

 

I've lowered my bar to seeing high cirrus off to my southeast tomorrow.

It's true! The mid-range "it's shifting north" / "it's shifting south" / "it's shifting east" / "it's shifting west" dance from run to run gets to be ridiculous.  :lol:  I like going by the long range "signal" and then will start my planning from there until nowcast time.  The other stuff in between has become a lot of noise.

Just listening to KYW this afternoon and hearing whoever it was doing the weather (may have been Brittney Shipp from NBC10) having to de-escalate the hype earlier in the week, was pretty painful.  Sometimes surprises happen though and we get something that will "over-perform", so we'll have to wait and see what will actually happen tonight and tomorrow.

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10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Anyone else’s township brine their roadways for tomorrows “event”? I lol’d pretty hard seeing that. Must be itching to use their winter budget or get overtime for the holidays.

They should save it for March as it seems we get more backend-of-winter stuff when people are ready for spring to come. :lol:

I know that Cheltenham and Springfield Townships in Montco are usually out there brining but I didn't get out today to see...

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28 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Anyone else’s township brine their roadways for tomorrows “event”? I lol’d pretty hard seeing that. Must be itching to use their winter budget or get overtime for the holidays.

Yep. I was going to take a picture but the laziness got the best of me. It was mainly the roads around/leading into the North Wales train station. I was thinking don't they follow the weather forecast at all?

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2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's true! The mid-range "it's shifting north" / "it's shifting south" / "it's shifting east" / "it's shifting west" dance from run to run gets to be ridiculous.  :lol:  I like going by the long range "signal" and then will start my planning from there until nowcast time.  The other stuff in between has become a lot of noise.

Just listening to KYW this afternoon and hearing whoever it was doing the weather (may have been Brittney Shipp from NBC10) having to de-escalate the hype earlier in the week, was pretty painful.  Sometimes surprises happen though and we get something that will "over-perform", so we'll have to wait and see what will actually happen tonight and tomorrow.

Your buddy Brittany/NBC 10 during their 6pm newscast going with 70F for Sat and 67F for the burbs. Record high for Sat in Philly is 65F so that will be annihilated. Don't mind records lows but I can do without record highs... 

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21 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Your buddy Brittany/NBC 10 during their 6pm newscast going with 70F for Sat and 67F for the burbs. Record high for Sat in Philly is 65F so that will be annihilated. Don't mind records lows but I can do without record highs... 

Seems something like at least a 66 is pretty much unanimous across the different weather media outlets/sites as a high, and would be enough.  What will be interesting to see if there is a record high min. Was digging around trying to find what that was...

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12 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Seems something like at least a 66 is pretty much unanimous across the different weather media outlets/sites as a high, and would be enough.  What will be interesting to see if there is a record high min. Was digging around trying to find what that was...

As for TV media, 6abc 69F, Fox29 68F, NBC10 70F for Sat at 11pm newscast. Adam Joseph being all happy about this makes me nauseous...  

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5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

A little batch here moving E w/darker blues may give me a flurry or virga/evaporate....31F

*Amber alert scared the bejesus outta me....

may.jpg

I heard about the car theft with the little girl in it on KYW this morning although the location they mentioned in their report was completely bollixed - it's not "56th and Green" but the 5600 block of Greene St. (I know exactly where that is - not far from Greene and Chelten Ave).

I've been watching that band get sheared apart on and off early this morning although it seems to have finally held together better now.  The dp here is 24 so not sure how much of it will survive beyond producing virga but will see.

Temp is marginal here at 33.

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8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I heard about the car theft with the little girl in it on KYW this morning although the location they mentioned in their report was completely bollixed - it's not "56th and Green" but the 5600 block of Greene St. (I know exactly where that is - not far from Greene and Chelten Ave).

I've been watching that band get sheared apart on and off early this morning although it seems to have finally held together better now.  The dp here is 24 so not sure how much of it will survive beyond producing virga but will see.

Temp is marginal here at 33.

In front of Giovannis Pizza, mother went in, left the car on w/the child inside. How stupid...

Pretty much still pitch dark at 6:40am...possible flakes approaching.

30F

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2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

In front of Giovannis Pizza, mother went in, left the car on w/the child inside. How stupid...

Pretty much still pitch dark at 6:40am...possible flakes approaching.

30F

Yup.  I am on a Nextdoor list and people were posting that helicopters have been flying over the area overnight.

That band seems to have hit a wall.  WPC's current surface map sortof shows why!

current-surface-map-649am-12082021.PNG

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2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Noticed them all morning even down in DC area.  Geese taking off perhaps?

LOL that is an interesting thought, although I would think something like that would show up as small blobs of green on the radar. :lol:

These looked almost like those scattered pop-up thunderstorm cells that we see in summer.

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11 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I was just outside doing some raking, still nada. 33F

Looks like it all but evaporated here although there appears to be a virga band over RedSky. :D

Temp was holding at 35 but just edged up to 36 with dp 26.

Checked the MA forum and aside from the :cliff: there doesn't seem like much more than virga going on down there either.

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