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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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nope  just too many lake cutters in an ideal cold pattern that has now set up.  I say many us in this forum who love snowstorms are in an upheaval as MIller A's have virtually disappeared after a forming for a few models runs on the long range models. Its been going on for a few days now.  All of the  models  have not been consistent amongst each other as well.  The La Nina pattern has basically shut down LP(low pressure) production in the gulf states and the the progressive pattern is racing LP's across the country. With  constant  LP's racing across the northern tier of the US, Lake cutter storms and other  moisture starve storm as are hitting the east coast every 3-4 days.  The production of even Alberta clippers has been shut down as they are moisture starvedand steered into Canada.  By the time the LP's hit the east coast, the formation of a MIller B type storms is non-existent. 

I hate to say it but we need on big honking deep pressure storm to form in the New Orleans area and race toward the Delmarva area to break this shitty pattern, even if it was all rain or better yet have the SE ridge break down for over a week. Good luck with that. Every storm we get appears to be thread the needle type of storm too. That can get very frustrating. Its like playing the game of hearts and getting the queen of spades in every hand.  The Debbie  down syndrome is in full bloom. 

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I'm not really down on the pattern, just reacting to reading Ji posts first thing in the morning. :wacko:

I think if you're KU hunting, you'll be disappointed way more often than not. Me? I'm fine with numerous nickel & dime events that keep the ground white. But as we've always said, if a big dog were to happen, it's usually when a pattern is setting in or breaking down. Once said pattern is established, it's kind of boring.

Don't misinterpret what I'm about to say here -- there's a reason Feb is our big snow month. I'm not saying it doesn't snow in Jan -- we just had a big fight in the other thread over the Jan '96 blizzard. But there have been plenty of great winters that featured cold & dry Januarys -- 2002-03 and 2009-10 come to mind.

Everyone is already freaking out because it looks like we may revert back to the crap Pac pattern in Feb and maybe we will. But we're struggling to figure out the next 10-14 days, so I'm not worrying about Feb for now. 

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39 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'm not really down on the pattern, just reacting to reading Ji posts first thing in the morning. :wacko:

Well now that was your mistake right there. :lol:

I bottomed out at 27 this morning, and it's currently partly cloudy, bopping between 29/30, with a dp of 14, and sporting an active breeze.  Also registered 0.30" in the bucket yesterday although I know some was probably a bit of snow melt.

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2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I'm not really down on the pattern, just reacting to reading Ji posts first thing in the morning. :wacko:

I think if you're KU hunting, you'll be disappointed way more often than not. Me? I'm fine with numerous nickel & dime events that keep the ground white. But as we've always said, if a big dog were to happen, it's usually when a pattern is setting in or breaking down. Once said pattern is established, it's kind of boring.

Don't misinterpret what I'm about to say here -- there's a reason Feb is our big snow month. I'm not saying it doesn't snow in Jan -- we just had a big fight in the other thread over the Jan '96 blizzard. But there have been plenty of great winters that featured cold & dry Januarys -- 2002-03 and 2009-10 come to mind.

Everyone is already freaking out because it looks like we may revert back to the crap Pac pattern in Feb and maybe we will. But we're struggling to figure out the next 10-14 days, so I'm not worrying about Feb for now. 

LMFAO! Who is freaking out? Patterns don't last forever....sometimes we score in epic patterns, other times we put up a goose egg. 

Personally, I would rather be in a mediocre pattern that isn't a shutout and take chances as they show up on guidance in the short range. Im not a huge fan of staring down the barrel of a loaded pattern and "hoping" we don't end up with a shutout. Seems around here alot that when good patterns show up, many folks assume a storm will follow. I only wish it worked like that. 

Eta: a good part of producing around here is luck....that goes without saying 

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's going to snow just give it time, if not the spring crocuses will be spectacular

 

Well, I still like the period centered around the 17th give or take a day. However, I will say it til I'm blue, this coming pattern is going to require a high amount of patience. Signs are that suppression will be an issue with the PV nosing down from Baffin Bay. We can score over the next 2 weeks, but more likely we will wait until the pattern relaxes. It is almost always like this. Pattern looks good, posters begin stating how we will enter a no-fail period, pattern turns out uneventful, guards lower, pattern begins to relax, SECS/MECS happens....not always, but more often than not.

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  I hate to really say it, but I am already looking forward a damn good lighting  cracking t storm in late April.  This weather pattern we are in is strictly designed only for killing stink bugs, box elder bugs, mosquitoes and maybe some of those pesky spotted lantern flies with the brutal tundra cold. Honestly the only ones that like this crappy weather pattern are the squirrels and birds like the pictured  hawk below who was staring at me from my feeder a few days ago right outside my window  as they can actually still feed off the ground.OLjmLgek2LTdqUfqpXgojV1T-DGM4nZ3PU-Xumnn1HIPSMHzJ56BC6RMs4CRjmNZBW7DMIdz-hhQeIzw5zA9HvPSHZbKZf-q8SHZRAdeBScrddjlk10zoetUKbOgQHXrYwIGPVJBZvA2XvOoNNGupsfRTQRnWOahGXBWWOn6m6PQBwioK9ZScZINz3VnfP_lOZd29UxcRGN7ByUJkmVytgqhOmZdDUNITNDPpSMb2ntdeZByhCiRiaD66WssI2U_Gjkw0Dzqgfl7QMuqe94LJ46whuZsZp9uGUd4yhGocekkF0zjPruS2wJAGIi2iAW-94Uo5eqJ4sbXzz0-TCfDIXMiHDTJSOYUe74P3N-xyYjNsfQ3R0E3K5aypGLceJRHOKkHHZqCtwNZLDjwQGZX6fWssajmq5cB15Tx1RUj-SIBlp0-g59zoUyMNcK5PriRzfIs86XB323FWV94Mx7K-ALFM6Ubl7iF2R9CBCSphPq46lQT4xDr25orHFwPVLDZbVBbHrNSsoNTyRdGE_jXssUv5ezjaLD4VyqM0M3O8n4cDih0hGDdWIOKzX9TBWjt-irO3ac2tM8ac58DFeWIEXvdPxUa_Sax1oldb7yFqqUBtVBJpdCwVsTZYgF5kRQ97oPzvIUgCsSGnX6OxlpZKibjbqQm_yeh6kk4btlsgX-Rj-HItLeusVvVDIIdNh6DSst0d7w5ho9IFu8_tKGOpV57=w712-h949-no?authuser=0

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1 minute ago, Albedoman said:

by the way,last Feb snows, I was having this problem for my squirrel feeder/bird feeder on my deck. The bar seats for the squirrels to eat at was over taken by the biggest dam squirrel I have ever seen.  LMAO

xUt5Xru27NSBFWaOTi7OuZOeX8vYY4ov2aDjvlf0vKy4VTCzl2ktoANFVXs3-Ufsr9YBtJlHCwVBeV8FdGX4DlL5vLszGHYXyXk_jox_w71IgvbV9qLqUY6DcC-tPds6SZuN_NyMRoDdNPDsL97_PUk2sFe7VSMB6imFrrb35sSoNiF-WcYUe8feD-MFF5kgixDKh97FbE6MLh6mdEDMRJwZxTLoEf0ebsWl-EUYSnRepwSADhRp0_GtT_SAsEnT_EdMGOr8jNzV_MiHA-HjUwMcWpiOVkEfOD8kw4usYvqQFuY4wjBrGGcED2Chly1--s8co_YZ2FKRtkokbXts9suBbdOYVJrlrz8XqXn7OIiJl53s7I4bd-Emdg0-Y_eAh6tixuFEu3nIv_VVsH0FHrqlzjtgrkFbJZDlCrfJcDrMV-H2Zw_5BLNUMy2eKojU3_LBv3hpTT2HbnwGYv7_QCp_jZDDgtKwi5hJknrWa8hcH0pkl2-fBfmJ4OU7XFWwp80hHfl3IOowHP05BV49y9Et1xvfEtio0J2WOzCCAVrjqb4-R7BKkq6l-0rqh5JMFL98nggGCLMF6eDxlSu9ebAGbOA9dBoUiDNlq2xEJ4Y45G3ua4OtjylEAkq1RL-_NwBzBeZGNLv6JKuaN30TQ9A3x1iIz-YC47rqIDEmmCBjVILZ1mdkp03Xp0y5neduIxX11Jk5wLB-AGJ38Bnc1PNR=w712-h949-no?authuser=0

 

Among the things I like about snow on the ground is seeing all the animal tracks. Amazing how busy my yard is when I'm not looking!

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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

by the way,last Feb snows, I was having this problem for my squirrel feeder/bird feeder on my deck. The bar seats for the squirrels to eat at was over taken by the biggest dam squirrel I have ever seen.  LMAO

xUt5Xru27NSBFWaOTi7OuZOeX8vYY4ov2aDjvlf0vKy4VTCzl2ktoANFVXs3-Ufsr9YBtJlHCwVBeV8FdGX4DlL5vLszGHYXyXk_jox_w71IgvbV9qLqUY6DcC-tPds6SZuN_NyMRoDdNPDsL97_PUk2sFe7VSMB6imFrrb35sSoNiF-WcYUe8feD-MFF5kgixDKh97FbE6MLh6mdEDMRJwZxTLoEf0ebsWl-EUYSnRepwSADhRp0_GtT_SAsEnT_EdMGOr8jNzV_MiHA-HjUwMcWpiOVkEfOD8kw4usYvqQFuY4wjBrGGcED2Chly1--s8co_YZ2FKRtkokbXts9suBbdOYVJrlrz8XqXn7OIiJl53s7I4bd-Emdg0-Y_eAh6tixuFEu3nIv_VVsH0FHrqlzjtgrkFbJZDlCrfJcDrMV-H2Zw_5BLNUMy2eKojU3_LBv3hpTT2HbnwGYv7_QCp_jZDDgtKwi5hJknrWa8hcH0pkl2-fBfmJ4OU7XFWwp80hHfl3IOowHP05BV49y9Et1xvfEtio0J2WOzCCAVrjqb4-R7BKkq6l-0rqh5JMFL98nggGCLMF6eDxlSu9ebAGbOA9dBoUiDNlq2xEJ4Y45G3ua4OtjylEAkq1RL-_NwBzBeZGNLv6JKuaN30TQ9A3x1iIz-YC47rqIDEmmCBjVILZ1mdkp03Xp0y5neduIxX11Jk5wLB-AGJ38Bnc1PNR=w712-h949-no?authuser=0

 

Cool but I don't see a pic, not sure if it's just me. Don't forget to click <insert> on the image preview if you're not already doing that. (I used to skip that step and I could see the pics but others couldn't).

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2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

  I hate to really say it, but I am already looking forward a damn good lighting  cracking t storm in late April.  This weather pattern we are in is strictly designed only for killing stink bugs, box elder bugs, mosquitoes and maybe some of those pesky spotted lantern flies with the brutal tundra cold. Honestly the only ones that like this crappy weather pattern are the squirrels and birds like the pictured  hawk below who was staring at me from my feeder a few days ago right outside my window  as they can actually still feed off the ground.

Yes, I do like this weather. And I want to postpone Spring as long as possible because I know the hell hole called Summer is not far behind...

23F 

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Yes, I do like this weather. And I want to postpone Spring as long as possible because I know the hell hole called Summer is not far behind...

23F 

Same. Gonna put on the heavy Tyvek tomorrow at work. It's the only time of year where it's moderately comfortable. Especially since I'll be working on the waterfront:

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20
kt with gusts up to 30 kt and rough waters. For the Freezing
Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray
expected.

* WHERE...Upper Delaware Bay.
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1 minute ago, CoolHandMike said:

Same. Gonna put on the heavy Tyvek tomorrow at work. It's the only time of year where it's moderately comfortable. Especially since I'll be working on the waterfront:

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20
kt with gusts up to 30 kt and rough waters. For the Freezing
Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray
expected.

* WHERE...Upper Delaware Bay.

If your moving around outside in the cold it's not bad at all. Tomorrow's high around 20F is manageable...I remember times shoveling w/temps in the 20s, sweating and removing a layer of clothing. The wind and spray would be a different beast but I'd rather have that than in a office cubicle w/co workers cranking the heat to 80F...ugghh.

23F

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5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

If your moving around outside in the cold it's not bad at all. Tomorrow's high around 20F is manageable...I remember times shoveling w/temps in the 20s, sweating and removing a layer of clothing. The wind and spray would be a different beast but I'd rather have that than in a office cubicle w/co workers cranking the heat to 80F...ugghh.

23F

I was thinking about that earlier. I feel like highs in the low 20s was a common thing....a few decades back.   :oldman:

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4 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Temperature climbed back to 31F this afternoon.

Who's worried, Ralph? Happy hour is about to deliver :snowing:

Friday there will be the big ocean storm moving into the Canadian maritime over the weekend. From there, we will basically see a 'threat' every other day until the pattern relaxes. And what i mean by that is there are many chaotic shortwaves moving thru the flow. The cool part is, the PJ and the STJ both look active. 

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was thinking about that earlier. I feel like highs in the low 20s was a common thing....a few decades back.   :oldman:

I remember 5 day forecast with highs in the teens/low 20s and that wasn't super rare. A 5 day forecast w/a single digit high or two is rare... 

23F/Winds gusting a bit

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4 hours ago, Albedoman said:

  I hate to really say it, but I am already looking forward a damn good lighting  cracking t storm in late April.  This weather pattern we are in is strictly designed only for killing stink bugs, box elder bugs, mosquitoes and maybe some of those pesky spotted lantern flies with the brutal tundra cold. Honestly the only ones that like this crappy weather pattern are the squirrels and birds like the pictured  hawk below who was staring at me from my feeder a few days ago right outside my window  as they can actually still feed off the ground.OLjmLgek2LTdqUfqpXgojV1T-DGM4nZ3PU-Xumnn1HIPSMHzJ56BC6RMs4CRjmNZBW7DMIdz-hhQeIzw5zA9HvPSHZbKZf-q8SHZRAdeBScrddjlk10zoetUKbOgQHXrYwIGPVJBZvA2XvOoNNGupsfRTQRnWOahGXBWWOn6m6PQBwioK9ZScZINz3VnfP_lOZd29UxcRGN7ByUJkmVytgqhOmZdDUNITNDPpSMb2ntdeZByhCiRiaD66WssI2U_Gjkw0Dzqgfl7QMuqe94LJ46whuZsZp9uGUd4yhGocekkF0zjPruS2wJAGIi2iAW-94Uo5eqJ4sbXzz0-TCfDIXMiHDTJSOYUe74P3N-xyYjNsfQ3R0E3K5aypGLceJRHOKkHHZqCtwNZLDjwQGZX6fWssajmq5cB15Tx1RUj-SIBlp0-g59zoUyMNcK5PriRzfIs86XB323FWV94Mx7K-ALFM6Ubl7iF2R9CBCSphPq46lQT4xDr25orHFwPVLDZbVBbHrNSsoNTyRdGE_jXssUv5ezjaLD4VyqM0M3O8n4cDih0hGDdWIOKzX9TBWjt-irO3ac2tM8ac58DFeWIEXvdPxUa_Sax1oldb7yFqqUBtVBJpdCwVsTZYgF5kRQ97oPzvIUgCsSGnX6OxlpZKibjbqQm_yeh6kk4btlsgX-Rj-HItLeusVvVDIIdNh6DSst0d7w5ho9IFu8_tKGOpV57=w712-h949-no?authuser=0

 

20220107_080429.jpg

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

If your moving around outside in the cold it's not bad at all. Tomorrow's high around 20F is manageable...I remember times shoveling w/temps in the 20s, sweating and removing a layer of clothing. The wind and spray would be a different beast but I'd rather have that than in a office cubicle w/co workers cranking the heat to 80F...ugghh.

23F

The cold's fine. It's the wind that sucks. But yeah, no cube, unless you count the sea-box we work out of as one. :lol:

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Went for an RSC walk. It's brutally cold out there. No real snow left here though. Apparently that silly big snowfall map made the rounds on social media. Very dangerous spreading that kind of thing - not good. I think a slight system will come through this weekend/early next week but nothing crazy. I'll leave the shovel and salt out just in case.

-RSC

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