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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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Did bring the Stratus in to get a water equivalent from what was collected in it (sometimes I'll do a core sample but there wasn't much wind out there overnight).

Planned to add warm water to melt it faster once I brought it in but it had almost melted after about 15 minutes inside (but I still added some to get the rest of it finished off) and came up with a 18:1 ratio which makes sense considering how dry it was doing the depth measurement and how fast it had disintegrated in the outer cylinder even before adding anything.

Currently overcast again and up to 29 with dp 21.

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Yes, as recently as last week I was thinking about sending the towel to the dry cleaners to have it ready just in case.

We'll see how the pattern plays out, but I was thinking it seems like this is a La Nina that's running a month behind schedule. For instance, Nina Decembers tend to be cold with snow chances. Then the pattern breaks around New Years and January is a ratter. But this year -- mild Dec, potentially cold Jan, then hints of a ratter Feb. We'll know soon enough.

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36 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Mid month is a ripe period for a big winter storm. Hard to believe how the tables have turned in one week. 

 

Based on the ensembles, looks cold and dry next week after the front comes through with snow threats on the 15th/16th, 18th/19th, and possibly a big daddy come the 21st. Buckle in! 

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35 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Based on the ensembles, looks cold and dry next week after the front comes through with snow threats on the 15th/16th, 18th/19th, and possibly a big daddy come the 21st. Buckle in! 

MJO progged (by GFS and its ensembles) to (at least briefly) get into Phase 8 around that time).

mjo-gfs-gefs-combphase_noCFSfull-01072022.gif

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13 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's like blizzarding for 24 hours. :o  Classic juicy Miller A from the GOM and up the coast.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh252-294-jan19-20-animated-01082022.gif

Clear signal on the ensembles too, long way out but in the advertised pattern setting up, could be a long tracker that is picked up early. It’s been on the op already for several days. This could be big dog of the winter. Could be a small-moderate threat before that storm as well in the 15-17th time frame. 

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Clear signal on the ensembles too, long way out but in the advertised pattern setting up, could be a long tracker that is picked up early. It’s been on the op already for several days. This could be big dog of the winter. Could be a small-moderate threat before that storm as well in the 15-17th time frame. 

And only about 44-48 model runs to go.

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