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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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4 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

I figured! We're mostly level C but occasionally spend time in B. Not fun, but supplied air has it's benefits on super hot days at least.

Same here.  I worked mainly remedial investigations in PA and NJ.  Now I do renewable energy permitting 

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Have had on and off ZL but it also looks like there may have been some IP at some point earlier (hard to tell on my car since it's white but other cars that are dark-colored appear to almost have a light coating of snow or IP on the roof and hood).

Temp is currently 31 with dp 27 so it will be close to melt point soon.

radar4-01052022.png

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well, I will succumb as it looks like we will get a very measly measurable snowfall of nearly one inch of snow on Friday morning ending my hopes for a new snowfall record. However  the latest full one inch record snowfall is still in jeopardy.   Wow, no snow thrower for me this time too,  Hell not even a shovel . Just need my leaf blower or broom and barely a grass covering. The birds should be able to still find the bird seed on the ground too. Congrats SNJ shore. You are finally scoring on every winter event thus far this year.

The municipalities salt budgets will be used up pretty quick at this rate however as they will not be able to easily remove the salt by natural means.

plow the snow off the road in the LV while the frozen tundra conditions really set in now.  No more groundwater recharge too for awhile as any precip that does fall will not penetrate the soil as the frozen conditions of the soils/closed depressions really lock up too.  It will be one big salt dust bowl up here for awhile as the vehicles turn grey. Car washes are loving this set up for sure. Snow plow contractors, sorry, it may be awhile before for  really you cash in.

 

 

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Guess it's slick in spots: Montgomery County

28F

Traffic Incidents

Incident No. Incident Type Incident
Sub Type
Incident Location Municipality Dispatch Time
P22006834 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         MEETINGHOUSE RD & JENKINTOWN RD ABINGTON 2022-01-05
06:40:43
P22006831 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         FITZWATERTOWN RD & SHELDON RD UPPER
MORELAND
2022-01-05
06:35:44
P22006827 HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS         BUCK RD & BYBERRY RD LOWER
MORELAND
2022-01-05
06:31:31
P22006826 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         STENTON AVE & WHITEMARSH AVE SPRINGFIELD 2022-01-05
06:35:13
P22006824 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         BEECHWOOD RD & HAVERFORD RD LOWER
MERION
2022-01-05
06:27:58
P22006823 HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS         BLAIR MILL RD & HOME RD UPPER
MORELAND
2022-01-05
06:26:21
P22006822 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         HUNTINGDON PIKE & PHILMONT AVE LOWER
MORELAND
2022-01-05
06:38:39
P22006820 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         LIMEKILN PIKE & BROAD ST UPPER
DUBLIN
2022-01-05
06:25:32
P22006819 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         COWPATH RD & PINE ST HATFIELD
TOWNSHIP
2022-01-05
06:23:30
P22006817 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         EASTON RD & LAWNTON RD UPPER
MORELAND
2022-01-05
06:21:32
P22006816 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         STENTON AVE & FLOURTOWN RD WHITEMARSH 2022-01-05
06:20:42
P22006803 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         TOOKANY CREEK PKWY & JOHNS RD CHELTENHAM 2022-01-05
06:08:00
P22006802 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         KIRK DR & RED LION RD LOWER
MORELAND
2022-01-05
06:07:28
P22006801 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         FITZWATERTOWN RD & NORTH HILLS AVE UPPER
DUBLIN
2022-01-05
06:05:06
P22006800 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         WELSH RD & VALLEY RD LOWER
MORELAND
2022-01-05
06:02:39
P22006791 HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS         PARK AVE & HUNTINGDON PIKE ROCKLEDGE 2022-01-05
05:54:14
P22006789 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         BEECHWOOD RD & HAVERFORD RD LOWER
MERION
2022-01-05
05:51:07
P22006788 VEHICLE ACCIDENT         THE FAIRWAY & RYDAL RD ABINGTON 2022-01-05
05:50:26
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Mt. Holly's call from earlier this morning -

FIVNzAGVcAISBYn.jpg

Am currently overcast and 34, with dp 32, so whatever was frozen is slowly melting (although those coldest surfaces were pretty cold, but the precip was light).  People were scraping the car windows this morning.  I saw the alert that the Passyunk Ave. bridge was closed due to icy conditions/accidents.

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21 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Mt. Holly's call from earlier this morning -

FIVNzAGVcAISBYn.jpg

Am currently overcast and 34, with dp 32, so whatever was frozen is slowly melting (although those coldest surfaces were pretty cold, but the precip was light).  People were scraping the car windows this morning.  I saw the alert that the Passyunk Ave. bridge was closed due to icy conditions/accidents.

That's not bad at all...better than Mon.

32F

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1 hour ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

Winter such a tough time. Between today, the mess on 95, the dangerous cold at night, winter sure did hit hard. Hopefully get out of this pattern soon

what winter wonderland are you dreaming of right now?  Winter has not even started yet in the LV?  I have bird seed sprouting under my feeders right now with bulbs pushing up and my pussy willow has white blooms on it.

 

I have a book to read right now in this pattern. Would you like to join me in reading this particular book?  LMAO 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looking more and more  like one of those disaster winters where every storm breaks the opposite of where we want it.

I'm hugging the long range HRRR lol.  Hope we can get on the board with a few inches...had to drive to Hammonton on Monday to see snow.

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The Jan 15-25 period is going to be where we get our big dog (if we do) this winter. PNA spike and east based blocking around the 16th sets up a chance for a storm

500h_anom.na.png

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

download.png.2324ab081806cb318e2b0f3edebd8be1.png

 

After this time period though, I think if we can get another brief PNA spike around the 18th-20th... you can see a pattern mature into a blockbuster one. Blocking to slow down the flow and lots of northern stream energy to dive into the central part of the country and cut off (if a +PNA forms). The vortex that comes down around the 15th-17th will likely shift east into the 50/50 region and clear out the east coast for a clean setup. Very dependent on the west coast though. Verbatim, the 12z GFS does have a storm around the 21st. But it can be much much bigger. 

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23 minutes ago, Newman said:

The Jan 15-25 period is going to be where we get our big dog (if we do) this winter. PNA spike and east based blocking around the 16th sets up a chance for a storm

500h_anom.na.png

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

download.png.2324ab081806cb318e2b0f3edebd8be1.png

 

After this time period though, I think if we can get another brief PNA spike around the 18th-20th... you can see a pattern mature into a blockbuster one. Blocking to slow down the flow and lots of northern stream energy to dive into the central part of the country and cut off (if a +PNA forms). The vortex that comes down around the 15th-17th will likely shift east into the 50/50 region and clear out the east coast for a clean setup. Very dependent on the west coast though. Verbatim, the 12z GFS does have a storm around the 21st. But it can be much much bigger. 

Good post Newman. Verbatim that’s a really solid look and should provide multiple chances at SECS events but we’ve seen a few times this winter that ridge in the west gets kicked down the lane or gets stuck in the d10-15 range. Would like to see it get into the day 7-9 range before getting hyped. We’ve seen a few head fakes so far on the pattern improving and it keeps getting pushed back. The MJO forecasts have been brutal so far this winter but if we can actually push into phase 8, that will increase the chances this comes to fruition. Right now though you really have to watch it day by day since it changes so frequently. Anyway I’m cautiously optimistic as well for mid month but definitely would like to see it keep progressing forward as we hit the day 7-10 range these next few days. Hopefully most of us at least get on the board tomorrow to kick things off.

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

The Jan 15-25 period is going to be where we get our big dog (if we do) this winter. PNA spike and east based blocking around the 16th sets up a chance for a storm

500h_anom.na.png

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

download.png.2324ab081806cb318e2b0f3edebd8be1.png

 

After this time period though, I think if we can get another brief PNA spike around the 18th-20th... you can see a pattern mature into a blockbuster one. Blocking to slow down the flow and lots of northern stream energy to dive into the central part of the country and cut off (if a +PNA forms). The vortex that comes down around the 15th-17th will likely shift east into the 50/50 region and clear out the east coast for a clean setup. Very dependent on the west coast though. Verbatim, the 12z GFS does have a storm around the 21st. But it can be much much bigger. 

There are already some signals that the good pattern on the 16th rolls over on itself by the 20th and things deteriorate. Hopefully just a hiccup on the weeklies. Im in for the 17th give or take a day for the PNA spike and possible system. Pattern either holds on or flips after this. Fingers are crossed.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Good post Newman. Verbatim that’s a really solid look and should provide multiple chances at SECS events but we’ve seen a few times this winter that ridge in the west gets kicked down the lane or gets stuck in the d10-15 range. Would like to see it get into the day 7-9 range before getting hyped. We’ve seen a few head fakes so far on the pattern improving and it keeps getting pushed back. The MJO forecasts have been brutal so far this winter but if we can actually push into phase 8, that will increase the chances this comes to fruition. Right now though you really have to watch it day by day since it changes so frequently. Anyway I’m cautiously optimistic as well for mid month but definitely would like to see it keep progressing forward as we hit the day 7-10 range these next few days. Hopefully most of us at least get on the board tomorrow to kick things off.

Any time is tough to forecast LR....but Nina it is damn near impossible to be confident past 7 days wrt overall hemispheric longwave patterns let alone synoptics.

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WWA's issued -

Quote

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
306 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012-015>019-021-PAZ070-
071-101>106-060915-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.220107T0300Z-220107T1500Z/
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon-
Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown,
Centreville, Easton, Denton, Flemington, Somerville,
New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden,
Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
306 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and southern
  New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and
  central and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread accumulating snowfall is
  expected across the advisory area Thursday night with rates up
  to 1 inch per hour possible. A narrow band of locally higher
  amounts of 4 to 6 inches or higher is possible as well.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Hit a high of 45 today after a low of 25. Currently 43 and overcast but clearing to the west, with dp 39.

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