JTA66 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Starting to get the feeling my Festivus Miracle benchmark will survive the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: Starting to get the feeling my Festivus Miracle benchmark will survive the week. This has the look of a half incher or even a bit more I still think Festivus is in trouble here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 the Euro will not let me down, Oh c'mon baby another whiff for the LV so our no measurable snow record can be broken. The model chaos will send everything to the coast and leave us with a high and dry tundra surface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Albedoman said: the Euro will not let me down, Oh c'mon baby another whiff for the LV so our no measurable snow record can be broken. The model chaos will send everything to the coast and leave us with a high and dry tundra surface Looks below normal cold coming for January. I can see us running -4 to -5F departures by the 20th. With bare ground maybe you will get that 12" frozen tundra after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Albedoman said: the Euro will not let me down, Oh c'mon baby another whiff for the LV so our no measurable snow record can be broken. The model chaos will send everything to the coast and leave us with a high and dry tundra surface Man, what's you obsession bro?! What a perverse record to want to be part of! but I actually get it -- if you can't be part of something good, might as well go all the way with something bad!!! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: Man, what's you obsession bro?! What a perverse record to want to be part of! but I actually get it -- if you can't be part of something good, might as well go all the way with something bad!!! Lol I think he's trying to pull the reverse psychology thing... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I think he's trying to pull the reverse psychology thing... That only works for George Costanza 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Unfortunately this is nothing new. Seems for a while now (regardless of the season) the models show an EC storm in the long to medium range only to settle on something like a frontal passage as we move up in time. That's why I said yesterday, get this inside 48 hours, then I'll worry about the deets. I suppose there's still time to trend more favorably for us. But even so, probably little more than an advisory level event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: Unfortunately this is nothing new. Seems for a while now (regardless of the season) the models show an EC storm in the long to medium range only to settle on something like a frontal passage as we move up in time. That's why I said yesterday, get this inside 48 hours, then I'll worry about the deets. I suppose there's still time to trend more favorable for us. But even so, probably little more than an advisory level event. I'll get a little worried if the 18z and 0z follow but models do this crap all the time which is why this a brutal hobby... 34F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 hours ago, Birds~69 said: When is the last time the shore/S Jersey/DE received a legitimate "snow on snow"...meaning inches per event? There may be one but I don't remember it. It's even difficult up our way... 19F Probably in 2009/2010 - the banner season where I measured something like 70" IMBY (and almost 58" for the 2010 calendar year alone). And snow on snow for South Jersey/Delaware would have happened with a 2/5 - 2/6/10 storm followed a few days later by a 2/9 - 2/10/10 storm (with Delaware's totals coming in worse in some cases, than Jersey with the 2nd storm) - Winter Storm Feb 5-6, 2010https://www.weather.gov/phi/02052010 Winter Storm Snowfall Totals Feb 9-10, 2010https://www.weather.gov/phi/20102010 That first hit left 15" - 24" at the shore and wouldn't have disappeared 3 days later before the next round came in with an additional range of 3" - 12" (depending on location). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Probably in 2009/2010 - the banner season where I measured something like 70" IMBY (and almost 58" for the 2010 calendar year alone). And snow on snow for South Jersey/Delaware would have happened with a 2/5 - 2/6/10 storm followed a few days later by a 2/9 - 2/10/10 storm (with Delaware's totals coming in worse in some cases, than Jersey with the 2nd storm) - Winter Storm Feb 5-6, 2010https://www.weather.gov/phi/02052010 Winter Storm Snowfall Totals Feb 9-10, 2010https://www.weather.gov/phi/20102010 That first hit left 15" - 24" at the shore and wouldn't have disappeared 3 days later before the next round came in with an additional range of 3" - 12" (depending on location). I was thinking that would be the only possible time in recent memory that would happen. I didn't know if they had rain mixing issues which would have kept accumulation way down and would it last to the next storm. Apparently so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I think he's trying to pull the reverse psychology thing... Man, if reverse psychology worked on inanimate objects like the atmosphere, I'd be doing it all the time!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: Man, if reverse psychology worked on inanimate objects like the atmosphere, I'd be doing it all the time!! Don't fool yourself, I'm sure many weenies on this board tried it (inside their head, talked out loud to themself) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I was thinking that would be the only possible time in recent memory that would happen. I didn't know if they had rain mixing issues which would have kept accumulation way down and would it last to the next storm. Apparently so... I was trying to see if there may have been some initial mixing and then a backend thump. The sheer quantity of the first one for some locations was significant nonetheless and unless you had a rapid warmup and near flooding rain (like what happened in 1996 and even that didn't take it all away), then there would have been snowpack still there for the next storm. There is a cool site that had some snow maps of those 2 events (and some other area HECS/SECS over the years) - https://www.weathernj.com/major-new-jersey-snow-storms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 37 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'll get a little worried if the 18z and 0z follow but models do this crap all the time which is why this a brutal hobby... 34F Exactly, and ens mean look good. GEFS is actually better. Tho yeah 6z/12z ops went to wrong way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I was trying to see if there may have been some initial mixing and then a backend thump. The sheer quantity of the first one for some locations was significant nonetheless and unless you had a rapid warmup and near flooding rain (like what happened in 1996 and even that didn't take it all away), then there would have been snowpack still there for the next storm. There is a cool site that had some snow maps of those 2 events (and some other area HECS/SECS over the years) - https://www.weathernj.com/major-new-jersey-snow-storms/ That's definitely a "snow on snow". No question about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 59 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: Man, if reverse psychology worked on inanimate objects like the atmosphere, I'd be doing it all the time!! I have been rooting for something that makes this current pattern worth noting as it really sucks. My motto Just because something doesn't do what you planned it to do doesn't mean it's useless." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 35 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: That's definitely a "snow on snow". No question about that... I was going to say the same, up here there was settling between events but no real melting, so I'm sure they had snow left from the 1st one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Well a bunch of WWAs just got lofted - Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 300 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022 NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106- 051000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.220105T1200Z-220105T1700Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex- Western Monmouth-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton- Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 300 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 AM to noon EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 300 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022 DEZ001>003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016>023-027-051000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.220105T1000Z-220105T1400Z/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Southeastern Burlington- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, and Wharton State Forest 300 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland and all of Delaware. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Temp here currently 33 with dp 21 after a high of 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Mt. Holly's thoughts just tweeted for tomorrow morning (sounds dicey) and Thursday/Friday - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: 28hrs of continuous snowmaking-- 8 million gallons and counting!! Nice! That's about 10 million cubic feet at a 10:1 ratio. Though it's probably a lower ratio, snow machine snow is pretty dense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Mt. Holly is bullish I like it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 alrighty now, thats the way i like to see it. The latest snowfall record for the LV being broken is still on the table by the reliable 18 GFS model LMAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Probably in 2009/2010 - the banner season where I measured something like 70" IMBY (and almost 58" for the 2010 calendar year alone). And snow on snow for South Jersey/Delaware would have happened with a 2/5 - 2/6/10 storm followed a few days later by a 2/9 - 2/10/10 storm (with Delaware's totals coming in worse in some cases, than Jersey with the 2nd storm) - Winter Storm Feb 5-6, 2010https://www.weather.gov/phi/02052010 Winter Storm Snowfall Totals Feb 9-10, 2010https://www.weather.gov/phi/20102010 That first hit left 15" - 24" at the shore and wouldn't have disappeared 3 days later before the next round came in with an additional range of 3" - 12" (depending on location). That was my first winter back in the area after living out of state for about 15 years. I distinctly recall telling my wife (a Cali girl) "Oh, no, it hardly ever snows here. Maybe a couple of inches here and there." I think the snow-on-snow glacier lasted well into March on that one. Today was cold! Luckily I got to sit in my car for half the day, waiting on other people to get their stuff sorted. Just a couple of inches on the ground in Pennsville, but it was pretty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said: That was my first winter back in the area after living out of state for about 15 years. I distinctly recall telling my wife (a Cali girl) "Oh, no, it hardly ever snows here. Maybe a couple of inches here and there." I think the snow-on-snow glacier lasted well into March on that one. Today was cold! Luckily I got to sit in my car for half the day, waiting on other people to get their stuff sorted. Just a couple of inches on the ground in Pennsville, but it was pretty. what kind of work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, CoolHandMike said: That was my first winter back in the area after living out of state for about 15 years. I distinctly recall telling my wife (a Cali girl) "Oh, no, it hardly ever snows here. Maybe a couple of inches here and there." I think the snow-on-snow glacier lasted well into March on that one. Today was cold! Luckily I got to sit in my car for half the day, waiting on other people to get their stuff sorted. Just a couple of inches on the ground in Pennsville, but it was pretty. I just found this that illustrated the ENSO state of 2009 - from what would be "the strongest warming event for an El Nino in 30 years" (although it would result in a "moderate" El Nino) - I never thought a season/calendar year would ever break the 1996 winter in my lifetime but here we were. And then 2013/2014 did it again (although not as much as 2009/2010 but still more than 1996). Of course this is the 2nd season in a row with a La Nina so the same sort of dynamics technically shouldn't apply and it is expected to start to fade to neutral this spring and possibly evolve back to an El Nino during the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, LVwxHistorian said: what kind of work? I'm a recently-minted geologist. One of my long-term assignments is performing soil-core analysis at an environmental remediation site in NJ. Which means that I've been working outside most days out of the past two years. Dead of winter, low double-digit temps and gusts blowing 30-40 with frozen precip and spray coming off the Delaware river? Been there. High 90's and DP's in the high 70s under a sweltering, summer sun? Done that, and everything in between. It's usually super windy where I'm at, and I can count on maybe two hands the number of actually pleasant outside working days I've had at the site in the past two years. My previous career was as an electronics tech so I never really got to experience this much raw weather first hand before, though I've always enjoyed a good storm, be it wet or white. Working almost exclusively outside has really given me first-hand, er, exposure to our Mid-Atlantic climate in a way that has both fascinated, frightened and awed me at times. I always try to stay motivated by the mantra "the worst day working outside beats the best day working in a cube" because most of time it's been true. Most of the time. Ha. Please forgive me in advance for oversharing, and thanks for asking. As for current obs, cold out right now at home, just the way it should be. Still refusing to mow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 29 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: I'm a recently-minted geologist. One of my long-term assignments is performing soil-core analysis at an environmental remediation site in NJ. Which means that I've been working outside most days out of the past two years. Dead of winter, low double-digit temps and gusts blowing 30-40 with frozen precip and spray coming off the Delaware river? Been there. High 90's and DP's in the high 70s under a sweltering, summer sun? Done that, and everything in between. It's usually super windy where I'm at, and I can count on maybe two hands the number of actually pleasant outside working days I've had at the site in the past two years. My previous career was as an electronics tech so I never really got to experience this much raw weather first hand before, though I've always enjoyed a good storm, be it wet or white. Working almost exclusively outside has really given me first-hand, er, exposure to our Mid-Atlantic climate in a way that has both fascinated, frightened and awed me at times. I always try to stay motivated by the mantra "the worst day working outside beats the best day working in a cube" because most of time it's been true. Most of the time. Ha. Please forgive me in advance for oversharing, and thanks for asking. As for current obs, cold out right now at home, just the way it should be. Still refusing to mow. I used to perform that work…..note my screen name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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