hazwoper Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: If that position of the low verified as shown, it would be a bit close to the coast and could cause mixing issues. That’s a benchmark track. No one from City on west would mix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I'm way more concerned about a miss east like the GFS than mixing for Friday. A decent amount of EPS members look like the GFS. It's about 50-50 split between BM track and OTS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Right! Let's just keep this threat alive. I'll worry about clown maps and mixing lines once inside 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: That’s a benchmark track. No one from City on west would mix I would agree if it were a PD storm but for early January, after near record-breaking antecedent temps? It's a bit marginal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I would agree if it were a PD storm but for early January, after near record-breaking antecedent temps? It's a bit marginal. That was honestly my concern. I capitalized today by threading the needle. (Barnegat NJ) I will be fishing in this lull tomorrow afternoon wednesday morning. Water temps are still 43.5ish near the coast. If I run 90 miles for bottom fish at the Wilmington Canyon, I still have 63 SST. That's why we are still crushing tuna. Unless we get a bomb or a similar slider, I get screwed .... and just have to take the dogs up to susquehanna to hunt instead. Lol. Next one is for you. I think she over performs, despite being a progressive track at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, dseagull said: That was honestly my concern. I capitalized today by threading the needle. (Barnegat NJ) I will be fishing in this lull tomorrow afternoon wednesday morning. Water temps are still 43.5ish near the coast. If I run 90 miles for bottom fish at the Wilmington Canyon, I still have 63 SST. That's why we are still crushing tuna. Unless we get a bomb or a similar slider, I get screwed .... and just have to take the dogs up to susquehanna to hunt instead. Lol. Next one is for you. I think she over performs, despite being a progressive track at the moment. That's why I put up that fantasy GFS 1/16 storm. As shown, it looks "juicy" and if there's enough cold air from the north (and the temps stay below or near normal the next 10 days vs above normal), it could sortof bomb out and provide some evaporative cooling back to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: That's why I put up that fantasy GFS 1/16 storm. As shown, it looks "juicy" and if there's enough cold air from the north (and the temps stay below or near normal the next 10 days vs above normal), it could sortof bomb out and provide some evaporative cooling back to the west. Trending in that direction. I'm looking forward to comparing tonight's globals with last nights globals, and then again with tomorrow nights runs. Wise professor once told me that past, present, future....is simply used knowledge, and many people refuse to be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Final total here in SNJ GloCo around 1.5". Roads and sidewalks melted so no shovel duty thankfully since it's freezing cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Dumping snow in Manahawkin, NJ! Been a great storm down here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 OCNJ getting clobbered right now http://attheshore.com/livecam-oceancity9thboardwalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 43 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I would agree if it were a PD storm but for early January, after near record-breaking antecedent temps? It's a bit marginal. Those are normal SST for this time of year. And the airmass coming will be fresh cold. Temps will be no issue based on the Euro track from 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not with the surface wind vectors NNE as shown. Perfect spot and wind trajectory on that map. Speaking verbatim on the euro, not my call, but that look likely wouldn't be an issue 95 n and w. Eta: 850 winds r actually NW. Concern might be for sleet (and we sure as hell had a lot of that last year). Still have some time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Dumping snow in Manahawkin, NJ! Been a great storm down here. I'm in Barnegat. (Waretown technically) I keep thinking this edge is gonna slide out, but the pivot is dumping on us. We may EEK out a legit 9.5-10 5 inches You are clearly in Beach Haven West. I just got off the parkway from my hunting club. Nassssttyyy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Those are normal SST for this time of year. And the airmass coming will be fresh cold. Temps will be no issue based on the Euro track from 12Z EDiT at AC it is 4 degrees F above normal. Not to bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, hazwoper said: EDiT at AC it is 4 degrees F above normal. Not to bad We have different years where the expanse of gulf stream Eddies is smaller, but more intense, vice-versa. The overall ocean heat index is difficult to calculate because of many variables, including depth, ambient air temp, flow...etc... This year is nothing special. Reminds me of some fishing conditions I had in the late 80s and early 90s. Very wide spread flow off the GS. The inshore SST is warmer for obvious reasons, but in still skeptical about the overall effect on a truly dynamic storm. I'm genuinely interested in this next storm, despite closing in on 9 inches. I'd love to see a true Miller B this winter, for coastal implications. Long duration events have always been my thing, unless we are talking real tropical systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, dseagull said: I'm in Barnegat. (Waretown technically) I keep thinking this edge is gonna slide out, but the pivot is dumping on us. We may EEK out a legit 9.5-10 5 inches You are clearly in Beach Haven West. I just got off the parkway from my hunting club. Nassssttyyy Yup you guessed correctly! And yeah man this last band is some of the heaviest rates I’ve seen all day. We might eek out another 1-3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Yup you guessed correctly! And yeah man this last band is some of the heaviest rates I’ve seen all day. We might eek out another 1-3”. Nice. Just had the heaviest band move in, with 40 mph wind as we speak. Very thin on radar. I'm impressed. Busted wayyyy high on my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 My inaccurate storm total is 3.75" after melting and compaction. Was probably closer to 5 inches here. Some other local measurements would support this. Not too bad at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, dseagull said: Nice. Just had the heaviest band move in, with 40 mph wind as we speak. Very thin on radar. I'm impressed. Busted wayyyy high on my thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I live on a marina as well. Gotta figure out how to downsize pics to post here. Have some impressive 3 foot drifts over lawn furniture. Wind tunnel effect coming down the lagoon. Good storm. May have another 20 min to hald hour to pick up another half inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 well , the latest measurable snowfall record of Jan 13 looks to be broken the way these LR maps are going here in the LV. Even in the heart of benchmark LP location, the models indicate less than an inch of snow on Friday. It will take a miracle for all the models to even agree on a storm location right now. I would just like to see the grass snow covered- i guess that is even too much to even ask. They finally will open Bear Creek trails in the few days as they are making snow like crazy right now. The Mountain looks like a blizzard is hitting it right now in these partly sunny skies at sunset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 hours ago, RedSky said: ECM is a southern slider. The I95 NW crowd needs a NW trend to commence at say 18z? That is not the look of a southern slider. That is a coastal signature from the hills of NE Tennessee to Nova Scotia sir. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 My sister lives on LBI. Said it was a blizzard like storm. No word on totals from her but the pics showed plowed roads and drifts.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Total here - big zero. Painful to miss but hope other opportunities are near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Here, the storm produced 7 or 8 flakes, low clouds, breezy but a cool sunset 28F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Finished up with a trace! Temp is down to 28 with dp 14 and I know it may have still going on in some places after the report, but here was the PNS as of 4pm and you can see who really cashed in within the CWA (KPHL managed 0.5") - Quote NOUS41 KPHI 032059 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106-040859- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 359 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...UPDATED SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR MONDAY JANUARY 3RD... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...Kent County... Hartly 13.0 in 0238 PM 01/03 Public 1 SE Woodside 10.5 in 0317 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 2 WNW Frederica 10.3 in 0312 PM 01/03 Public Woodside 10.0 in 0315 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 WSW Dover Air Force Base 10.0 in 0320 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 3 S Kitts Hummock 7.7 in 0315 PM 01/03 Public 3 SW Magnolia 7.0 in 1145 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter Dover 7.0 in 1222 PM 01/03 Public Smyrna 7.0 in 1237 PM 01/03 Public 2 WSW Magnolia 6.0 in 0130 PM 01/03 Public ...New Castle County... Middletown 6.0 in 0333 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Summit Bridge 5.5 in 0204 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Middletown 5.3 in 0156 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Middletown 4.5 in 1130 AM 01/03 Public 2 WSW Summit Bridge 3.0 in 1058 AM 01/03 Public Bear 3.0 in 1226 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter New Castle County Airport 1.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 ASOS ...Sussex County... Georgetown 12.0 in 0346 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 WSW Milton 11.6 in 0213 PM 01/03 Public Milford 10.0 in 0230 PM 01/03 Public 2 SW Rehoboth Beach 6.0 in 0330 PM 01/03 Public 3 SW Long Neck 5.0 in 0105 PM 01/03 Public Greenwood 4.0 in 1003 AM 01/03 Public Delmar 1.5 in 1238 PM 01/03 Cocorahs ...Maryland... ...Caroline County... Henderson 11.0 in 0230 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Goldsboro 10.0 in 0307 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr Greensboro 9.8 in 0307 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr Henderson 9.0 in 0307 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr 2 SSE Templeville 9.0 in 0307 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr Preston 8.0 in 0307 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr Denton 7.0 in 0309 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr ...Kent County... Millington 7.3 in 1230 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Queen Annes County... Stevensville 9.0 in 0340 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter Stevensville 8.0 in 1230 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Kingstown 7.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Starr 6.9 in 1107 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter 2 SW Stevensville 6.5 in 0300 PM 01/03 Public ...Talbot County... Royal Oak 8.0 in 1240 PM 01/03 CO-OP Observer Easton 5.5 in 0300 PM 01/03 Public Easton 5.0 in 0952 AM 01/03 Public ...New Jersey... ...Atlantic County... Absecon 13.0 in 0343 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 3 NE Hamilton Twp 12.0 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Northfield 11.0 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 E Mays Landing 10.0 in 0252 PM 01/03 Public Egg Harbor Twp 10.0 in 0302 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Somers Point 9.8 in 0205 PM 01/03 Public Somers Point 9.7 in 0130 PM 01/03 Public Egg Harbor Twp 9.5 in 0100 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Atlantic City International 9.5 in 0100 PM 01/03 ASOS Egg Harbor Twp 9.5 in 0130 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Northfield 9.0 in 0200 PM 01/03 Broadcast Media Egg Harbor Twp 8.6 in 0130 PM 01/03 Public Hammonton 8.5 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Galloway Twp 8.2 in 0109 PM 01/03 Public Mays Landing 8.0 in 1200 PM 01/03 Broadcast Media Pleasantville 7.3 in 0103 PM 01/03 Broadcast Media Northfield 7.0 in 1237 PM 01/03 Public Brigantine 6.5 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 3 SW Egg Harbor City 6.0 in 1232 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 NW Somers Point 5.5 in 0946 AM 01/03 Public 1 N Somers Point 5.0 in 1209 PM 01/03 Public Absecon 4.5 in 0955 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter Egg Harbor Twp 4.0 in 1000 AM 01/03 Public Egg Harbor City 4.0 in 1143 AM 01/03 Public Buena 4.0 in 1232 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Hammonton 3.8 in 1238 PM 01/03 CO-OP Observer Estell Manor 3.0 in 0823 AM 01/03 CO-OP Observer Egg Harbor City 1.5 in 0930 AM 01/03 Broadcast Media Hamilton Twp T in 0254 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Burlington County... 1 ESE Leisuretowne 2.8 in 0120 PM 01/03 NWS Employee 2 W Medford Twp. 2.0 in 1121 AM 01/03 Public Lumberton 0.8 in 0142 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Mount Holly WFO 0.6 in 0100 PM 01/03 Official NWS Obs ...Camden County... Winslow Twp 5.5 in 0130 PM 01/03 Public 1 SW Pine Hill 4.0 in 1200 PM 01/03 Public 1 WSW Lindenwold 4.0 in 0300 PM 01/03 Public Gloucester Twp 3.8 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Lindenwold 3.5 in 0215 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Cherry Hill 3.0 in 0103 PM 01/03 Public Haddon Heights 1.6 in 1227 PM 01/03 Public Bellmawr 1.3 in 1200 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Cape May County... Ocean View 11.3 in 0147 PM 01/03 Public North Cape May 10.3 in 0200 PM 01/03 Public Marmora 9.7 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public 1 WNW Rio Grande 9.0 in 1232 PM 01/03 Public 1 W Rio Grande 8.5 in 1228 PM 01/03 Amateur Radio Cape May Court House 8.2 in 1240 PM 01/03 Public Cape May 8.2 in 0103 PM 01/03 Public Seaville 7.5 in 1157 AM 01/03 Amateur Radio Petersburg 7.0 in 1156 AM 01/03 Amateur Radio North Cape May 7.0 in 1213 PM 01/03 Amateur Radio Green Creek 6.0 in 1139 AM 01/03 Amateur Radio 1 SSW Cape May Court House 6.0 in 1210 PM 01/03 Amateur Radio Eldora 6.0 in 1225 PM 01/03 Amateur Radio Villas 4.8 in 1039 AM 01/03 Amateur Radio Goshen 4.0 in 1031 AM 01/03 Amateur Radio Ocean City 4.0 in 1232 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Cape May Point 3.8 in 1144 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 NE Cape May Court House 3.0 in 1009 AM 01/03 Amateur Radio 1 NNW Erma 3.0 in 1022 AM 01/03 Amateur Radio Cape May 3.0 in 1040 AM 01/03 Amateur Radio Tuckahoe 2.0 in 0930 AM 01/03 Broadcast Media ...Cumberland County... Millville 6.3 in 0100 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Newport 6.0 in 0330 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Millville 5.8 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public Cedarville 5.5 in 0200 PM 01/03 Public Millville 5.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 2 W Rosenhayn 4.5 in 0100 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Vineland 2.7 in 1122 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 NNW Seabrook Farms 2.5 in 1125 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter Millville 2.2 in 1124 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter Hopewell Twp. 2.2 in 1126 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Gloucester County... Franklinville 5.5 in 0330 PM 01/03 Public Williamstown 5.3 in 0248 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Washington Twp 5.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public Greenwich Twp 4.5 in 0250 PM 01/03 Public Williamstown 4.0 in 1130 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter Mantua 4.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public Glassboro 3.4 in 1127 AM 01/03 Public West Deptford Twp 3.4 in 0200 PM 01/03 Public 1 NE Glassboro 2.3 in 1047 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Ocean County... Barnegat Twp 9.3 in 0314 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Little Egg Harbor Twp 7.2 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public 1 NNE Beach Haven 6.0 in 0200 PM 01/03 Public Barnegat 5.8 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public Waretown 5.5 in 0230 PM 01/03 Public 1 SSE Stafford Twp. 5.0 in 1230 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Forked River 5.0 in 0317 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Stafford Twp. 4.0 in 1111 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter 2 SSE Stafford Twp. 3.5 in 1100 AM 01/03 Public Forked River 3.0 in 1144 AM 01/03 Public 1 E Forked River 3.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public Toms River 2.5 in 0200 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Toms River 2.0 in 0254 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Lanoka Harbor 1.7 in 1003 AM 01/03 Public Harvey Cedars 1.0 in 0920 AM 01/03 Law Enforcement Lakewood Twp 0.5 in 0153 PM 01/03 Public Brick 0.5 in 0338 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Pennsylvania... ...Chester County... Glenmoore T in 0236 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Exton T in 0319 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Philadelphia County... 1 SE Point Breeze 1.8 in 0100 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter null Philadelphia Internati 0.5 in 0100 PM 01/03 ASOS && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The 18z Canadian suite (RGEM and CMC) bullish for snow Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Newman said: The 18z Canadian suite (RGEM and CMC) bullish for snow Friday Everybody cherry-picked around the GFS & ICON (but then these are all 18Z and will have to see what the 0Zs do). Temp down to 27 here with dp 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 24f dp11 with crystal clear skies. Was a partly sunny day after a cloudy morning out here in Western Berks. All eyes on the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 0z started off promising the NAM picked up on the 7th storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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