E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread

[WarrenCtyWx]

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Lost my link that had individual storm snowfall total maps for the northeast that went back through the 60's at least anybody have a clue?

 

I’m not sure but xmacis2 is a website that has snowfall totals (seasons and individual storms) for both first order stations and coop stations going back to the 1800s. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

NAVGEM came N and was a decent early Dec hit for SE PA

[RedSky]

21 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I’m not sure but xmacis2 is a website that has snowfall totals (seasons and individual storms) for both first order stations and coop stations going back to the 1800s. 

It had good modern looking color maps of snow totals may have been associated with NOAA 

[WarrenCtyWx]

12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It had good modern looking color maps of snow totals mat have been associated with NOAA 

Maybe the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)? Otherwise I’m not sure.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Still not completely sold on the Wednesday system. Some flakes should fly and maybe some light measurable snow for parts of the region, but clearly a fast moving wave developing well offshore and too late. Classic Nina. Also classic in that these zipping waves can be tough to nail down until mesos are in 36hr or less range. 

As noted ad nauseum, this is the catalyst for an overall pattern change to more evident ridging in the SE with subsequent troffing in the West into the Rockies. HP settles into the Aleutians and appears to become a staying feature for the foreseeable future.

But this isn't the be all-end all to this winter. According to the LR ensemble means, as things progress towards the weeks of Christmas and NY, the big blob ridge in the Aleutian chain will try and extend into the EPO region and establish a quasi CPF with a significant change to the cold air source into N America and the US. May take a little longer for this to translate over into our region. Also seeing less LP anchored over the NAO region with more ridging evident in Scandinavia which traditionally is an origin source for an eventual shift to a -NAO. But alas, this is a way out there and mere speculation beyond the ens means at range.

So some flakes in the air Wednesday,  maybe some light accums in spots (t-2"?). Moderating weather as the pattern shifts with a stretch of some AN temps. Then maybe some improvements overall later in the month as CPF attempts to change our cold air source while ridging in the SE remains. Could setup a decent battleground between the PJ and the SER with hints at potentially some HL blocking by the week of Christmas towards the very end of the month.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12z nam everyone sees flakes. T-2"

[hazwoper]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Still not completely sold on the Wednesday system. Some flakes should fly and maybe some light measurable snow for parts of the region, but clearly a fast moving wave developing well offshore and too late. Classic Nina. Also classic in that these zipping waves can be tough to nail down until mesos are in 36hr or less range. 

As noted ad nauseum, this is the catalyst for an overall pattern change to more evident ridging in the SE with subsequent troffing in the West into the Rockies. HP settles into the Aleutians and appears to become a staying feature for the foreseeable future.

But this isn't the be all-end all to this winter. According to the LR ensemble means, as things progress towards the weeks of Christmas and NY, the big blob ridge in the Aleutian chain will try and extend into the EPO region and establish a quasi CPF with a significant change to the cold air source into N America and the US. May take a little longer for this to translate over into our region. Also seeing less LP anchored over the NAO region with more ridging evident in Scandinavia which traditionally is an origin source for an eventual shift to a -NAO. But alas, this is a way out there and mere speculation beyond the ens means at range.

So some flakes in the air Wednesday,  maybe some light accums in spots (t-2"?). Moderating weather as the pattern shifts with a stretch of some AN temps. Then maybe some improvements overall later in the month as CPF attempts to change our cold air source while ridging in the SE remains. Could setup a decent battleground between the PJ and the SER with hints at potentially some HL blocking by the week of Christmas towards the very end of the month.

I'd take a miss here with the hopes of late Dec/early Jan snow

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 GFS mirrors the NAM....general T-2" event. Hopefully it holds....would be nice to break the ice with a grass whitener.

[JTA66]

It’s early December, we take! Thanks, Ralph.

Meanwhile, it feels like a March day out there, 54F.

[The Iceman]

Meso's are at range but they seem pretty unenthused by this event. Thinking it will be mostly snow TV for most with maybe some areas seeing a C-1".

[The Iceman]

Euro/UKMET largely nothing for all other than a few mood flakes. That's the direction I'm leaning as well. I'll be surprised if the 1-2" shown on the GFS/12kNAM come to fruition. Just moving too fast and precip doesn't seem robust at all not to mention all the dry air.

[JTA66]

Yep, my bar is set at mood flakes. Anything that whitens the ground is a bonus.

[Ralph Wiggum]

My bar is set at a trace. Just want to get on the board.

[MJO812]

Nam

[Birds~69]

Feeling just like Christmas out there at 62F...rain/front approaching from the W.

[The Iceman]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nam

Here’s the 3k

 

[The Iceman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My bar is set at a trace. Just want to get on the board.

Same I’ll be happy with mood flakes but I won’t be surprised if we don’t even get that. Just such a dry system, I could totally see that .05 of liquid just falling as virga. At least 2nd half of December may be salvageable if LR guidance is as on point as it was with the crap pattern we are about to enter. Looks like a 2013-14 esque -epo pattern potentially. Much better than the close the blinds look we have coming next week. I would watch the December 28-Jan 2 period as I’ll be in Florida  

[KamuSnow]

This turned into quite the thin line. Got about 3 minutes of heavy rain.

Eta, getting pretty windy here now, post frontal passage.

[Hurricane Agnes]

27 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

This turned into quite the thin line. Got about 3 minutes of heavy rain.

Eta, getting pretty windy here now, post frontal passage.

Yeah that was a fast-moving sucker.  Was right over top of me at 7:30 pm.  Temp has finally started dropping, where I made it to 63 as a high after a 44 low.  Currently 53 and falling with some light rain and 0.29" in the bucket and lots of wind whipping stuff around.

[Birds~69]

Having some train howling gust after a short period of mod-heavy rain. Down to 48F after 62F not too long ago...

[Birds~69]

Looking like zilch for the burbs tomorrow and maybe a little something S of Philly. Spring Sat this weekend w/highs in the 60s...

32F

[Chadzachadam]

Not exactly on topic, but just wanted to note that this must be the longest foliage season I've ever seen. I've had decent color from I think the last week of October all the way through the first week of December, probably around 6 weeks in total (~3x longer than usual!). It looks like it's finally winding down now, with a few maples still holding onto some bright leaves. I guess it's been relatively mild, but I didn't think it had been so warm as to impact the foliage this significantly. Foliage definitely started a little later than usual, so I guess I'll just chalk it up to climate change and a long summer. Anyone else notice this or have any explanation?

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Looking like zilch for the burbs tomorrow and maybe a little something S of Philly. Spring Sat this weekend w/highs in the 60s...

32F

That minor threat went South quickly eh? Hope this isn't a precursor pattern to this winter. Remember when the GFS was so amped it cut thru western PA? Trended to a sheared fast moving flat wave. Thought that made more sense than amped up but didn't think we would see nada out of it. Holding out hope for a couple mood flakes anyway.

[JTA66]

Seems to be our pattern since Ida. Storms modeled in the medium to long range go poof. Remember the week before Thanksgiving there was talk of a disruptive east coast storm for the holiday? Nope.

We're going to need patience this year. We do that well 

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Seems to be our pattern since Ida. Storms modeled in the medium to long range go poof. Remember the week before Thanksgiving there was talk of a disruptive east coast storm for the holiday? Nope.

We're going to need patience this year. We do that well 

This is something that I have observed not just this year, but for a number of years now.  The LR seem to catch on to something that is interesting and will provide a good heads-up - whether it is some system or even some major temperature shift (whether a heat signal or cold signal).  Then in comes the MR and excuse my language, when all is said and done, they suck ass for verifying.  So you're left with the SR that although might not match exactly what the LR picked up on, eventually better nails the extent and timing, etc.  It's like the MR tries too hard to do "what ifs" and goes for some of the most extreme solutions.

Got down to 32 as a low this morning and am up to 41 and partly sunny with a deck of high clouds rolling in.  The dp really crashed with the front, going from the mid-50s down to the low 20s and is currently at 24 here.

[Birds~69]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That minor threat went South quickly eh? Hope this isn't a precursor pattern to this winter. Remember when the GFS was so amped it cut thru western PA? Trended to a sheared fast moving flat wave. Thought that made more sense than amped up but didn't think we would see nada out of it. Holding out hope for a couple mood flakes anyway.

Sure do. It's getting to the point where I'm having zero confidence in any model till we're within 24hrs. Even then may still swing and miss.

Not sure if a couple flakes will make me happy or piss me off on why our area has such a hard time getting snow anymore. Just an 1" seems like such a struggle. And now we'll be in stagnant-ville till the end of the month at the earliest. At least Christmas doesn't look like a blowtorch...40s/night low 30s. 

38F

[The Iceman]

18 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Sure do. It's getting to the point where I'm having zero confidence in any model till we're within 24hrs. Even then may still swing and miss.

Not sure if a couple flakes will make me happy or piss me off on why our area has such a hard time getting snow anymore. Just an 1" seems like such a struggle. And now we'll be in stagnant-ville till the end of the month at the earliest. At least Christmas doesn't look like a blowtorch...40s/night low 30s. 

38F

 

Not Christmas, but still lol seems like the pattern change to -EPO is being pushed back which is not really that unexpected. I don't think things improve until January but we'll see. We really need a -AO to deliver cold air from the -epo and it doesn't look like modeling is quite there yet. Seems like -EPO/+AO/+NAO which would likely just be more of the same but not as torchy. Not a great pattern for snow. Sucks that we're probably going to punt the first half to 2/3rd's of the month with not even a shot of measurable snow in the LR. Hell even flurries seem like stretch tomorrow now.

[KamuSnow]

4 hours ago, Chadzachadam said:

Not exactly on topic, but just wanted to note that this must be the longest foliage season I've ever seen. I've had decent color from I think the last week of October all the way through the first week of December, probably around 6 weeks in total (~3x longer than usual!). It looks like it's finally winding down now, with a few maples still holding onto some bright leaves. I guess it's been relatively mild, but I didn't think it had been so warm as to impact the foliage this significantly. Foliage definitely started a little later than usual, so I guess I'll just chalk it up to climate change and a long summer. Anyone else notice this or have any explanation?

Yeah I've noticed it too. Seems like some trees and plants go by the calendar and others go by the temps. So there were some trees that leafed up at the usual time and others that waited due to the cool spring. Similar for this fall. We have a Willow Oak that is a beautiful big old tree that is still dropping leaves, they are small and there's a billion of them, lol. Sweet Gum trees aren't done yet either, but they're all getting there. We usually are done with leaves here by the 1st of December.

[Ralph Wiggum]

34 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

Not Christmas, but still lol seems like the pattern change to -EPO is being pushed back which is not really that unexpected. I don't think things improve until January but we'll see. We really need a -AO to deliver cold air from the -epo and it doesn't look like modeling is quite there yet. Seems like -EPO/+AO/+NAO which would likely just be more of the same but not as torchy. Not a great pattern for snow. Sucks that we're probably going to punt the first half to 2/3rd's of the month with not even a shot of measurable snow in the LR. Hell even flurries seem like stretch tomorrow now.

I said it a month ago, saying it again. We r going to be tired of low 40s to low 50s and partly sunny by January. Like u said, not a firehose of PAC air and probably not 70s, but boring AN temp weather the theme for long stretches this winter. 

[The Iceman]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I said it a month ago, saying it again. We r going to be tired of low 40s to low 50s and partly sunny by January. Like u said, not a firehose of PAC air and probably not 70s, but boring AN temp weather the theme for long stretches this winter. 

Honestly I'd rather it be in the 60s/70s so I could at least continue golfing so that my game doesn't go to shit again by spring