Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Ch6 Accu Weather Chris Sowers saying, "low confidence forecast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Even if this only pans out somewhat this upcoming week would have been a good Christmas - New Year weather pattern. I'm leaving my outside lights up for several more weeks regardless but I know people follow a strict unwritten rule New Years night is the last night for outside lights. Probably see people taking them down tomorrow because of the warm weather.... light rain/52F Tradition for me growing up was to turn on the Mummers on New Year's Day and start dismantling Christmas - all stuff down and packed away on New Year's Day (which is what I did here yesterday although the rain postponed the parade until today... but the lights and wreaths were taken in very early before the rains started up). I kept some "seasonal" artificial plants around the house though. When I checked in here and saw there were 33 replies, I figured something was up and some legit threat had apparently been spotted. I could actually hear the Ji fireworks going off up here. Regardless, I ended up with 1.02" of rain for yesterday's total and have an additional 0.11" in the bucket this morning (total 1.13 for the 2-day event so far). Looks like the precip. is pretty much done for now though. Currently misty and 52 with dp 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro north of 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Tradition for me growing up was to turn on the Mummers on New Year's Day and start dismantling Christmas - all stuff down and packed away on New Year's Day (which is what I did here yesterday although the rain postponed the parade until today... but the lights and wreaths were taken in very early before the rains started up). I kept some "seasonal" artificial plants around the house though. When I checked in here and saw there were 33 replies, I figured something was up and some legit threat had apparently been spotted. I could actually hear the Ji fireworks going off up here. Regardless, I ended up with 1.02" of rain for yesterday's total and have an additional 0.11" in the bucket this morning (total 1.13 for the 2-day event so far). Looks like the precip. is pretty much done for now though. Currently misty and 52 with dp 52. That's exactly how it was during my youth. Once I moved out I leave everything up longer than New Years. As far as the mummers I had relatives in "The Polish American String Band" and we would look for them on TV when they performed. We usually saw them.. 52F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Over 7 inches on the SREF for Philly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I see the GFS was ignored again until the ECM jumped on board at the last minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nam is awful until you get to SNJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: GFS and NAM stopped the N and W shift. Clearly a S Jersey shore special. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS and NAM stopped the N and W shift. Clearly a S Jersey shore special. Good luck! There is still wiggle room for a slight north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS and NAM stopped the N and W shift. Clearly a S Jersey shore special. Good luck! Yes. I’d have to look into it more but it seems rare when the NJ beaches score and us NW peeps do too. I recall too many times when the AC boardwalk got buried and all I’m looking at is cirrus. Welp, if I can’t score, I sure hope this is a nice event for the NJ and DE posters! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Yes. I’d have to look into it more but it seems rare when the NJ beaches score and us NW peeps do too. I recall to many times when the AC boardwalk got buried and all I’m looking at is cirrus. Welp, if I can’t score, I sure hope this is a nice event for the NJ and DE posters! This reminds me of Jan 1987, seashore special. Heavy strip central/southern de across lewes and the Del Bay into Cape May and S Jersey thru ACY. Smoking cirrus up here is very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This reminds me of Jan 1987, seashore special. Heavy strip central/southern de across lewes and the Del Bay into Cape May and S Jersey thru ACY. Smoking cirrus up here is very likely. Wouldn’t throw in towel yet. My Holly stating it is the highest uncertainty forecast in recent memory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: Wouldn’t throw in towel yet. My Holly stating it is the highest uncertainty forecast in recent memory Here is the last tweet - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Wouldn’t throw in towel yet. My Holly stating it is the highest uncertainty forecast in recent memory No towel throwing. Was never sold on much accums up this way. Gung ho on the areas I mentioned tho and feel good about that call right now. Mood flakes to 2" up this way. Up to a 10" stripe across S NJ, Central and S DE. Hrrr also stopped the NW bump fwiw so thats 3 of 4 at 12z to halt N tick so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 N fringe is going to struggle. Massive CAA push coupled with dry air and a tightening ULL is going to lead to a sharp cutoff near the DE River with ragged light precip N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: N fringe is going to struggle. Massive CAA push coupled with dry air and a tightening ULL is going to lead to a sharp cutoff near the DE River with ragged light precip N and W. Agreed! This will make for some excellent radar hallucinations!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: That's radar reflectivity, not precipitation at the ground. A lot of that NW of Delaware is virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gfs is more west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Seems like the trend NW hasn't necessarily continued on the 12z stuff in so far, but rather the trend W continues (things are slower) while the advancement north has stopped as it feels a bit flatter. If you consider only the heavy swath of the 12z GFS's precip shield to be "real" then it lines up fairly closely with the 12z NAM -- given the dry air coming in, this has the feeling of full on haves vs. have-nots when it comes to getting in on the goods. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I suspect we should see the EURO shift more to the southeast with the 12z run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: I suspect we should see the EURO shift more to the southeast with the 12z run Gefs is more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Zeus said: Seems like the trend NW hasn't necessarily continued on the 12z stuff in so far, but rather the trend W continues (things are slower) while the advancement north has stopped as it feels a bit flatter. If you consider only the heavy swath of the 12z GFS's precip shield to be "real" then it lines up fairly closely with the 12z NAM -- given the dry air coming in, this has the feeling of full on haves vs. have-nots when it comes to getting in on the goods. GFS is NW of 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 PHL total snowfall by last three GFS runs: 0Z - 5” 6Z - 6” 12Z - 7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Talk about cut off wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Talk about cut off wow There were a couple of them in the 80's where I felt like a kid robbed of Christmas presents it happens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 CMC and GFS for Friday couldn’t be farther apart LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The late 80's storm Philly smoked cirrus and AC had 48" drifts lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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