E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Hmm I member you saying in December snow was coming before Christmas lol

I dont. Matter of fact the first snowfall contest im in for Jan 4. It snowed on Dec 8 and Dec 27 so I'm out lol. 

[RedSky]

27 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:

what does this mean?  If you lived on the Pocono Plateau?!

It means those long range GFS and ECM digital fantasy snows that are hard on the back...Kammu could explain it better

 

[RedSky]

Is there a rule for first snow? Are we counting flurries and dusters first snow? I think the criteria should be the same as a white Christmas - 1" 

 

 

[RedSky]

Oh the humanity!

 

[The Iceman]

I've pretty much thrown in the towel for any hopes of a normal winter here.  At this point, just hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2019-20 complete disaster(1.5"). I'll pretty much be happy with one 4-6" type event and maybe a few C-1" minor events. If we make it through this month with zero accumulating(> 1") events though, we might be looking at record level's of futility again. Nina Feb's are always warm here. Would be pretty ridiculous to see 2 bottom 3 winters of all time in a 3 year period. You have to go back to 1949 -1951 to get 2 winters with <5" of snow in a 3 year period(and those were back to back, 1949 -50 had 2" and 50-51 had 4.2". There's never been a period in PHL history that had 2 <1" seasons in 3 years. Still early to be thinking record futility but with no real significant snow chances in sight, it is starting to come into mind. 

12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Is there a rule for first snow? Are we counting flurries and dusters first snow? I think the criteria should be the same as a white Christmas - 1" 

 

 

I said in my contest post that it was first accumulating snow > Trace though it should have been > 1". I(and many others in this subforum) haven't seen that yet. I don't really count Dec. 8 or 27th as actual events as they were light snow showers with no accumulation.

[RedSky]

Last year was a La Nina even though it was weaker and fading( I think) 

The big SSW disruption in early January (I think) caused the block buster second half, there is yet no indication we get another one.

 

[JTA66]

Look on the bright side -- this year's January thaw will have very little impact.

[RedSky]

27 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Look on the bright side -- this year's January thaw will have very little impact.

New tradition starting this year watch for the January freeze

* wonders if DT is contemplating amending his call again should be fun

 

[ChescoWx]

My Chester County PA Weather Facebook discussion site has continued to explode with now over 2,100 folks on board and over 1,500 in just the last 2 weeks!  A lot of people in Chesco seem to be as Ben Franklin said weather wise rather than other wise!!

A question came in today regarding average snowfall per month and all-time monthly snow totals for Chester County. Below is the average snowfall by month that we receive here in Chester County PA along with the all-time greatest monthly snowfalls and those years. The earliest snow ever recorded in Chester County was the 9.0" back on October 29, 2011 and the latest was on April 28, 1898 when 1.0" of snow was recorded

[Birds~69]

7 hours ago, RedSky said:

Is there a rule for first snow? Are we counting flurries and dusters first snow? I think the criteria should be the same as a white Christmas - 1" 

 

 

.1" is the record criteria for first snow in 2/3/95 in Philly. Looking like we may challenge this.

I had a light dusting on my windshield wipers the other day which didn't even equal this...

44F  

[KamuSnow]

8 hours ago, RedSky said:

It means those long range GFS and ECM digital fantasy snows that are hard on the back...Kammu could explain it better

 

Lol. They are hard on the back. I've found it helpful to do some stretching exercises before shovelling heavy digital snow.

[KamuSnow]

9 hours ago, RedSky said:

Hmm I member you saying in December snow was coming before Christmas lol

You a member?!

[KamuSnow]

6 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Look on the bright side -- this year's January thaw will have very little impact.

You'll be singing a different tune if you wind up mowing your lawn in January, lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 hours ago, RedSky said:

Not only is this performing like a dead ratter winter, it's the worst for digital fantasy snow ever. I have 16" of digital snow on the electronic yard stick a normal winter is 36" by this point. 

 

Add this to the digital snow pile:

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Add this to the digital snow pile:

Maybe but the gefs is on board for some snow. Euro and Nam show the energy also holding back.

[Birds~69]

39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Add this to the digital snow pile:

 

[Birds~69]

Quick trip to Wawa for a coffee...foggy as hell.

 

 

[Birds~69]

18 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Quick trip to Wawa for a coffee...foggy as hell.

 

 

Pretty damn foggy and coffee was good but I'm too busy trying to get my records straight w/the late 1800's snowfall totals....still foggy

[RedSky]

GFS and the ECM tonight yeah sure it's like they were listening to me 

 

[Birds~69]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe but the gefs is on board for some snow. Euro and Nam show the energy also holding back.

These damn maps are driving me crazy, may punch the trash can 100 yrds down the road....

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

15 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Look on the bright side -- this year's January thaw will have very little impact.

I noticed my snowdrops have sent up a couple inches of leaves (they aren't normally making an attempt until maybe during a February thaw or the end of February).

13 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

My Chester County PA Weather Facebook discussion site has continued to explode with now over 2,100 folks on board and over 1,500 in just the last 2 weeks!  A lot of people in Chesco seem to be as Ben Franklin said weather wise rather than other wise!!

A question came in today regarding average snowfall per month and all-time monthly snow totals for Chester County. Below is the average snowfall by month that we receive here in Chester County PA along with the all-time greatest monthly snowfalls and those years. The earliest snow ever recorded in Chester County was the 9.0" back on October 29, 2011 and the latest was on April 28, 1898 when 1.0" of snow was recorded

I had been looking at NOAA's NCEI 30-year "norms" update data introduced this past May here - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/noaa-delivers-new-us-climate-normals where you can start digging into the data from here - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals and there is a "quick access" link here - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/

There are a bunch of stations in the dataset but for those that (I am guessing) have data back at least 30 years, for Chesco for example, Honey Brook's 30-year is this - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-annualseasonal&timeframe=30&location=PA&station=USC00364047

Just something to throw out there (I know there are many data sources around).

8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Add this to the digital snow pile:

Mt. Holly joined in on the (almost) dismissal of that but haven't made it a "zero chance" yet in this morning's AFD.

So far I have 0.24" in the bucket this morning and it's currently overcast with some stratus and mist and 43 with dp the same.

[Birds~69]

Looks like Seattle out there...clouds, mist and damp. Meanwhile they are receiving snow...

45F

[WarrenCtyWx]

I would gladly take 25 and sunny over 40 and dreary.

[Birds~69]

26 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I would gladly take 25 and sunny over 40 and dreary.

At least w/25F you have "a shot" at some flakes. 40sF/cloudy/mist you have no shot at flakes and all around crappy....

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Looks like Seattle out there...clouds, mist and damp. Meanwhile they are receiving snow...

45F

It's this kind of weather 

 

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's this kind of weather 

 

....and someone stole Clark Griswold shit!

46F

https://www.pahomepage.com/top-stories/clark-griswold-stolen-from-berwick-christmas-boulevard/

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looking ahead, I'm not sure there is a whole lot to get excited about tbh. There is the tiny window centered around Jan 3 that is trending to a fropa with a quick zipping followup wave South of the region as cold chases precip. Could still be a burst of snow especially for the Southern parts of the region Monday AM. 

Another longwave fropa centered near the 7th with a followup wave on its heels also. We'll see if there is a better look for that setup as lead times diminish.

Hemispheric pattern looks to be making adjustments starting in less than a week. Im wondering if the high lat blocking including the PAC monster near the Aleutians are shifting around due to this SSWE in the short term:

It is right after this that we can detect the PAC block propagating from Aleutian chain up into a negative EPO ridge, negative AO:

I've seen worse patterns modeled under 10 days, but more wanted to note the SWE ties to the HL ridging shifting around. The SPV is damn stubborn though and is not showing signs of being pushed around as much as we saw modeled a few days ago. The blob of warm convection in the strat at 132 hours should still be enough of a catalyst to try and shuffle things around wrt the HL tellies. 

AO is forecast to move near neutral with a clustering weak negative:

Looking out farther, we also see the negative NAO ridge get shunted by the TPV as it tries and settle in near Baffin Bay. The NAO ens forecast reflects the TPV nudging the NAO out of the domain as it trends positive:

The former NAO ridge becomes more of a flat North Western Atl ridge. Meanwhile, the blocking in the EPO hangs on and there is a mid lat ridge extending all the way into the far n and w portion of the PNA domain. A weak split flow is trying to develop off the W Coast. Not the best positioned PNA (neutral to slight positive at best here) but I've seen worse looks. 

The PNA is forecast to relax towards neutral. A better positioned ridge would likely have this index as a positive so we will see where this heads moving forward:

This ens prog hemispheric pattern reminds me alot of Feb 2018. Iirc, that wasn't the greatest month on record for winter weather. Here is the UL hemispheric pattern for that month which can be compared to some of the LR ens means looks:

What strikes me is based on the progression on the ens means developing that TPV near Baffin with other tellies comparable to early Feb 2018, once the pattern reloaded following the Baffin TPV which proved to be transient, the pattern rolled over on itself and went right back to a look similar to the current 500mb pattern with a big negative PNA, Aleutian PAC pig block, negative NAO, SER, (which the latter 2 linked up in 2018 similar to several times we have already see THIS winter). If you look at the temps for Philly in Feb 2018 you can see the roller coaster after the TPV moved out and the pattern rolled back to a big negative PNA with full lat ridging in the East:

Go back and compare the LR ens with the 2018 500mb early February means...striking similarities. Im wondering if we do end up with a period of warmth later in Jan (thaw?) after a period of cold/dry when the TPV meanders towards Baffin out towards the beginning of the 2nd week of January.

So I know first things first, but no way to sugarcoat the next 7 days or so seem rather uneventful for Philly proper in terms of winter weather. Many folks are begging for the pattern to reshuffle as we can't get much more boring actually. We should see things reshuffle towards the end of week one January. Signs are we finally get a cold air feed as the TPV positions itself near Baffin Bay and the EPO ridge allows for the cold in Western Canada to finally start to spill East and press South. Thereafter is a coin toss but there are similarities to Feb 2018 and if that former progression is to be believed, the pattern after the 'reshuffle' rolls over on itself and heads right back to a SER link-up with the N Atl ridge, a return to a negative PNA, and and stubborn PAC Aleutian ridge anchoring back in. This turned into quite a warm spell in mid Feb 2018 after a cold start and I am wondering if this is how Jan 2022 will also progress ie cold start followed by a significant Jan "thaw"? 

[LVwxHistorian]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looking ahead, I'm not sure there is a whole lot to get excited about tbh. There is the tiny window centered around Jan 3 that is trending to a fropa with a quick zipping followup wave South of the region as cold chases precip. Could still be a burst of snow especially for the Southern parts of the region Monday AM. 

Another longwave fropa centered near the 7th with a followup wave on its heels also. We'll see if there is a better look for that setup as lead times diminish.

Hemispheric pattern looks to be making adjustments starting in less than a week. Im wondering if the high lat blocking including the PAC monster near the Aleutians are shifting around due to this SSWE in the short term:

It is right after this that we can detect the PAC block propagating from Aleutian chain up into a negative EPO ridge, negative AO:

I've seen worse patterns modeled under 10 days, but more wanted to note the SWE ties to the HL ridging shifting around. The SPV is damn stubborn though and is not showing signs of being pushed around as much as we saw modeled a few days ago. The blob of warm convection in the strat at 132 hours should still be enough of a catalyst to try and shuffle things around wrt the HL tellies. 

AO is forecast to move near neutral with a clustering weak negative:

Looking out farther, we also see the negative NAO ridge get shunted by the TPV as it tries and settle in near Baffin Bay. The NAO ens forecast reflects the TPV nudging the NAO out of the domain as it trends positive:

The former NAO ridge becomes more of a flat North Western Atl ridge. Meanwhile, the blocking in the EPO hangs on and there is a mid lat ridge extending all the way into the far n and w portion of the PNA domain. A weak split flow is trying to develop off the W Coast. Not the best positioned PNA (neutral to slight positive at best here) but I've seen worse looks. 

The PNA is forecast to relax towards neutral. A better positioned ridge would likely have this index as a positive so we will see where this heads moving forward:

This ens prog hemispheric pattern reminds me alot of Feb 2018. Iirc, that wasn't the greatest month on record for winter weather. Here is the UL hemispheric pattern for that month which can be compared to some of the LR ens means looks:

What strikes me is based on the progression on the ens means developing that TPV near Baffin with other tellies comparable to early Feb 2018, once the pattern reloaded following the Baffin TPV which proved to be transient, the pattern rolled over on itself and went right back to a look similar to the current 500mb pattern with a big negative PNA, Aleutian PAC pig block, negative NAO, SER, (which the latter 2 linked up in 2018 similar to several times we have already see THIS winter). If you look at the temps for Philly in Feb 2018 you can see the roller coaster after the TPV moved out and the pattern rolled back to a big negative PNA with full lat ridging in the East:

Go back and compare the LR ens with the 2018 500mb early February means...striking similarities. Im wondering if we do end up with a period of warmth later in Jan (thaw?) after a period of cold/dry when the TPV meanders towards Baffin out towards the beginning of the 2nd week of January.

So I know first things first, but no way to sugarcoat the next 7 days or so seem rather uneventful for Philly proper in terms of winter weather. Many folks are begging for the pattern to reshuffle as we can't get much more boring actually. We should see things reshuffle towards the end of week one January. Signs are we finally get a cold air feed as the TPV positions itself near Baffin Bay and the EPO ridge allows for the cold in Western Canada to finally start to spill East and press South. Thereafter is a coin toss but there are similarities to Feb 2018 and if that former progression is to be believed, the pattern after the 'reshuffle' rolls over on itself and heads right back to a SER link-up with the N Atl ridge, a return to a negative PNA, and and stubborn PAC Aleutian ridge anchoring back in. This turned into quite a warm spell in mid Feb 2018 after a cold start and I am wondering if this is how Jan 2022 will also progress ie cold start followed by a significant Jan "thaw"? 

thanks for all the info -- when I first saw it, I thought it was from Don Sutherland!

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:

thanks for all the info -- when I first saw it, I thought it was from Don Sutherland!

This is a MUCH better look out in the PNA domain on the latest GEFS and one way we avoid catastrophe in January. PNA mean axis in this location is not a shutout look by any means and if a split can develop at all we (especially N and W) should enter a very workable window between Jan 8-18 with cold air nearby:

Eta: And this ties in with the Feb 2018 pattern rollover/revert after this period. Definitely seeing a workable window tho then hints of a thaw which was noted on some of the weekly data.

[MJO812]

Gfs is still not budging