ChescoWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Accumulating on grass only or falling then melting shortly after/changing to rain isn't much fun. It's going to be too warm... 45F Of course all that matters regarding snow accumulation is what accumulates on non-paved surfaces. So while grass is not ideal (hopefully folks have a snow board or at worst a table) With a wee bit of elevation which the models are picking up on - if reality is as modeled (not saying it is) then we will see some folks reporting accumulations of snow. I have recorded 6" of snow at times without a flake on the roads or my driveway....it is still officially 6" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Of course all that matters regarding snow accumulation is what accumulates on non-paved surfaces. So while grass is not ideal (hopefully folks have a snow board or at worst a table) With a wee bit of elevation which the models are picking up on - if reality is as modeled (not saying it is) then we will see some folks reporting accumulations of snow. I have recorded 6" of snow at times without a flake on the roads or my driveway....it is still officially 6" of snow Not saying it isn't but it's not enjoyable. I rather have freezing rain which coates the trees and roads. Snow that doesn't stick to pavements/roads is unproductive snow... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Waking from my coma and see the ukie is good for 8"..slips back into coma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Waking from my coma and see the ukie is good for 8"..slips back into coma CMC trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat and the gfs minus will be predicting weather on Venus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: CMC trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat and the gfs minus will be predicting weather on Venus! CMC may have the best idea in that it is the most progressive solution. Ukie digs the energy and bombs out off the VA Capes. Given the progressive nature of the pattern we have seen, I doubt this will be much different than other recent systems but maybe the N and W can cash in with some measurable snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 ICON came in flatter and subsequently colder with less of an ocean influence. In line with 12z CMC. This is the direction we want to head....without it of course shearing out too much and becoming a nothing burger like happened last Nina episode repeatedly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON came in flatter and subsequently colder with less of an ocean influence. In line with 12z CMC. This is the direction we want to head....without it of course shearing out too much and becoming a nothing burger like happened last Nina episode repeatedly. Eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Most of the models have trended much drier and further north....likely won't have a clear picture till 0z Tuesday with this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Most of the models have trended much drier and further north....likely won't have a clear picture till 0z Tuesday with this set up Should fit the Nina norm of either sheared and suppressed....colder. Or slightly amped wave coming Norther and N and W areas seeing measurable. Still leaning towards N and W seeing the accums this time. Then we take a break, and hope the pattern resolves itself by the Christmas and NY holiday week(s). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 No one….I mean NO ONE talking about the 18Z GFS?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, hazwoper said: No one….I mean NO ONE talking about the 18Z GFS?! I think that’s overdone wonder how much of that is sleet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I hate doing it but the 0z GFS * ensembles even better for the I95 crowd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 wow, two consecutive GFS runs now of 6"+ . I am thrilled. Maybe the tide is turning? LOL Lets see what the Euro spits out? Still no real good model consensus though in the long ranges. I will not budge off my 1-3" initial first thoughts for this storm until there at least two runs of the Euro in agreement to some type of 4+ snowfall. We have been burned too many times so far this season with even the light snow predictions in the LV. This is just how last season started off and this is a typical thread the needle type of storm. When the NAM sees it , I will jump on board. Basically these clown maps are click bait even at 5 days with the raging PAC jet and long range model chaos from run to run. I am sorry to say this but these long range models at least this year do not even provide proper guidance with their drastic changes every 8 hours. I am really wondering if many of the PAC ocean buoys are screwed up or do we need much more? How about launching balloons from drones to get more accurate atmospheric data to ingest into the models? Bet nobody thought of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 CMC is sheared and east. Yes this feels exactly like last winter where a snowy forecast at 96hrs is as believable as a Yeti. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Swing and a miss low and away 0z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Swing and a miss low and away 0z ECM Did you expect anything different? I'd be happy to get the ground white till we hit 55F+ Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 hours ago, Albedoman said: wow, two consecutive GFS runs now of 6"+ . I am thrilled. Maybe the tide is turning? LOL Lets see what the Euro spits out? Still no real good model consensus though in the long ranges. I will not budge off my 1-3" initial first thoughts for this storm until there at least two runs of the Euro in agreement to some type of 4+ snowfall. We have been burned too many times so far this season with even the light snow predictions in the LV. This is just how last season started off and this is a typical thread the needle type of storm. When the NAM sees it , I will jump on board. Basically these clown maps are click bait even at 5 days with the raging PAC jet and long range model chaos from run to run. I am sorry to say this but these long range models at least this year do not even provide proper guidance with their drastic changes every 8 hours. I am really wondering if many of the PAC ocean buoys are screwed up or do we need much more? How about launching balloons from drones to get more accurate atmospheric data to ingest into the models? Bet nobody thought of that? You're in trouble if you are using 2 runs of 6"+ from the GFS as a baseline for snow totals. GFS was always the most amped with this system and has been stubborn and slow to trend towards other guidance. I felt the other day the CMC had the right idea leading the way with the squashed/sheared look especially given the progressive Nina flow. Still hoping the N and W folks can cash in on some measurable but im beginning to think that may be a challenge given the lack of any SER or real amplification in the flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I totally agree with this. For Petes sake it's only Dec. 5th. Just glad to see the overpreforming dusting on the bushes and roofs the other morning. Geez, let's let things take shape ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: I think that’s overdone wonder how much of that is sleet? That is not a sleet storm setup with a low riding to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You're in trouble if you are using 2 runs of 6"+ from the GFS as a baseline for snow totals. GFS was always the most amped with this system and has been stubborn and slow to trend towards other guidance. I felt the other day the CMC had the right idea leading the way with the squashed/sheared look especially given the progressive Nina flow. Still hoping the N and W folks can cash in on some measurable but im beginning to think that may be a challenge given the lack of any SER or real amplification in the flow. Make that 3 runs, Ralph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 when the NAM spits out 4+, then I will jump. I love the NAM and everything is only a best guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Make that 3 runs, Ralph Follow the trend. Go back 7 or 8 runs and follow the trend. Stubborn yet classic GFS late to pick up the fast Nina flow. Like the old Euro...it doesn't seen to make massive moves run to run but the Euro and GFS have reversed places the past 2 or 3 years. More upgrades? Eta: I'm not discounting measurable snowfall. Been suggesting for a while there will be some. Im just having a tough time wrapping my head around a 6"+ model where the pattern doesn't support it. Said in my outlook and sticking to it...c-3" events will be the norm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 What a horrible model the gfs is Heck the Euro has also been bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 How much for Philly? Memory tells me last year the ECM kept painting the fantasy storms and caving to the GFS more often then not maybe this year it's a different routine. Although this was the ECM first now that I think more about it, nuts. ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Do you think folks get a little excited about snow? My Chester County Weather Facebook page has added 1,200 followers since yesterday!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 First Snow climatology for Chester County PA 12/6 = Average 1st measurable snow 10/29 - earliest 1/28/72 - latest (note no snow at all for 1972-73 (no snow fell between 2/24/72 and 12/17/73) December first snow = 62 times / November 1st snow - 48 times / January 1st snow - 14 times / October 1st snow - 2 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Do you think folks get a little excited about snow? My Chester County Weather Facebook page has added 1,200 followers since yesterday!! They all heard snow was coming next week and possibly a lot of it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Lost my link that had individual storm snowfall total maps for the northeast that went back through the 60's at least anybody have a clue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now