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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We might see one huge Blizzard and that's it.

Noted in my outlook that we in fact do likely see one larger storm this year.  Chances higher for a hefty overunning event as the pattern folds in Feb. I also think the chances for icing are increasing significantly based on the stagnant 50/50, -PNA, and SER. 

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Noted in my outlook that we in fact do likely see one larger storm this year.  Chances higher for a hefty overunning event as the pattern folds in Feb. I also think the chances for icing are increasing significantly based on the stagnant 50/50, -PNA, and SER. 

Honestly, one MECS/HECS >>> many small events. 

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ICON/NAM/GFS hint at some errant flakes in the air at dawn Christmas Eve morning say 20% chance increasing to 30% in the hills and northern reaches of the region. The chance to say it snowed on Christmas Eve day might be among the winters biggest moments might want to be up for it.

 

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

I'm probably in the minority but I would take 3  6" events rather than 1  18" event. It would feel like we had some sort of winter rather than a 1 and done...

33F/super sunny 

That's the other odd change in recent years. Back in the 70's and 80's, the 3-5, 4-6 inchers were our bread & butter. Other than '78 and '83, HECS were non-existent. Now it seems we get advisory-level events or big dogs.

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

That's the other odd change in recent years. Back in the 70's and 80's, the 3-5, 4-6 inchers were our bread & butter. Other than '78 and '83, HECS were non-existent. Now it seems we get advisory-level events or big dogs.

There are few 1-4" fast moving clippers or fronts dropping 1.5" the last decade. When there are clippers they slow down and redevelop into Miller B's.

* Likely climate change with the more active southern jet injecting into the clippers creating the bigger Miller B's I would guess is the reason because I slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

 

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I'm a big fan of squalls when it's very cold. Partly cloudy turns to low clouds then all hell breaks loose. Wind/heavy snow blowing on streets and within 15-20 minutes 1-2" which wreaks havoc. Probably why NWS started the squall warning  alert in 2019 which makes your phone make that disturbing sound when a squall is approaching....

35F

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For those playing along at home, the new MJO plots (which I dont particularly care for as a forecasting tool) stall in 7 and some members even retrograde back into 6. Only thing I can say based on this is that we are in for the same status quo ho-hum  pattern for the next several weeks, likely taking us into the 2nd week of January before we see any meaningful changes. Where we go from there, positive or negative, who knows? But base state out in the PAC specifically is locked in and the MJO is also stalled (or locked in) with no catalyst on the horizon to shuffle the deck. Probably going to take something on a hemispheric scale to change things around. There are possibilities of a SPV split in the next 10 days as a warming event intensifies, so with lag factored in, maybe we can see some changes at higher lat in the PAC as a starting ground after Jan 3ish. Not sure what this will do for the -PNA however or if it will do anything favorable at higher lat in the PAC. 

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4 hours ago, RedSky said:

There are few 1-4" fast moving clippers or fronts dropping 1.5" the last decade. When there are clippers they slow down and redevelop into Miller B's.

* Likely climate change with the more active southern jet injecting into the clippers creating the bigger Miller B's I would guess is the reason because I slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

 

You had me till you mentioned the CC phrase that is always the correct answer these days....

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Barring a Christmas miracle it appears with this years "green" Christmas we will now have experienced the 2nd longest stretch (9 years) without a White Christmas in Chester County. Our last White Christmas occurred back in 2012. The longest stretch in Chester County history without a White Christmas was the 16 years between 1931 and 1946...so we still have a ways to go to break that record!!

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