Newman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 From November 1st to today, December 20th, the Philadelphia area has only seen 0.82" of precip, Wilmington DE 1.19", and Trenton area 1.28"... all of which are record low amounts in this ~50 day stretch. New Brunswick NJ, Allentown, and Reading are close to record low amounts as well. It has been a really dry stretch to close out astronomical Autumn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Newman said: From November 1st to today, December 20th, the Philadelphia area has only seen 0.82" of precip, Wilmington DE 1.19", and Trenton area 1.28"... all of which are record low amounts in this ~50 day stretch. New Brunswick NJ, Allentown, and Reading are close to record low amounts as well. It has been a really dry stretch to close out astronomical Autumn A little more but only 2.13" here in NW Chester County PA since November 1st through today - normal over that span is 6.64" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Early January just got can-kicked thanks to a full lat ridge linkup in the East between the SER and NAO. This was a legit concern of mine a week or so ago that I posted about, but I decided to try and point out some positives on the ens. That method isn't working anymore and there is no sense sugarcoating things. Going to be a winter that requires tons of patience and we likely get a 7-14 stretch of actual winter if we are lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 The SER is going to continue to show as flat after day 10 with a weakness thru the Midwest and extending into the 50/50. This would be great most seasons. And this isn't just saying this is Nina, it sucks, deal with it. This is a fact if you go back over the past several weeks. This is the 3rd time we've been headfaked into some mythical pattern change recently. Then once the ens get under 10 days the SER shows stronger and begins linking with the NAO. Wash, rinse, repeat.......for now. I will likely be wrong in my thinking that the NAO may save us this winter and be a key factor. It looks like the -PNA and SER via Nina are our big players and we are going to need help from those for our window to open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Euro mjo stalls out even longer in 7 and now the gefs does the same also. Phase 7 isn't bad but phase 8 and 1 is way better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro mjo stalls out even longer in 7 and now the gefs does the same also. Phase 7 isn't bad but phase 8 and 1 is way better Once I saw the MJO getting discussed ad nauseum elsewhere 2 weeks ago, I knew exactly where we were headed. I made a "heads up" post regarding MJO for 2 winters ago that also got stuck in the same manner but was told that this time is different. Im not looking for arguments, hopefully we get some true discussion, but I would rather just be honest (different than a deb btw) than be like a JB-type dangling carrots and making people think things are golden. Yes, we will have a period of winter sandwiched in this season. It happens in even the most unproductive winters. My point isn't to cancel the season lol. It is to factually discuss the repetitive pattern until there are LEGIT mid range signs that it is going to shift around. We need the PNA to shift first and foremost imho but with the Nina and the PDO phase the way it is, that's a double whammy and tough order but it can and will happen eventually..just not sure when. Lots of patience. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The SER is going to continue to show as flat after day 10 with a weakness thru the Midwest and extending into the 50/50. This would be great most seasons. And this isn't just saying this is Nina, it sucks, deal with it. This is a fact if you go back over the past several weeks. This is the 3rd time we've been headfaked into some mythical pattern change recently. Then once the ens get under 10 days the SER shows stronger and begins linking with the NAO. Wash, rinse, repeat.......for now. I will likely be wrong in my thinking that the NAO may save us this winter and be a key factor. It looks like the -PNA and SER via Nina are our big players and we are going to need help from those for our window to open. During the good winters the day 9-10 pattern changes move up in time. We keep getting head faked. It's a damn shame to waste a NAO like this. Winter is weird though. We could go practically snowless and then have two 12" events in late Feb and March, you just never know. I'd do dirty things for a repeat of last year. Yea the city missed the jackpot during events, but at least there was tracking and chase worthy events. This is boring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Fortunately I think most of us have come into this wither with low expectations. One winter that's been in the back of my mind is 1998-99. It was also a Nina, but other than that I don't know if there are other similarities to this year. 98-99 certainly wasn't a memorable winter, but not a shut out either. We had a few weeks of winter that year where we got nickeled & dimed. I think our "biggest" event was in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Once I saw the MJO getting discussed ad nauseum elsewhere 2 weeks ago, I knew exactly where we were headed. I made a "heads up" post regarding MJO for 2 winters ago that also got stuck in the same manner but was told that this time is different. Im not looking for arguments, hopefully we get some true discussion, but I would rather just be honest (different than a deb btw) than be like a JB-type dangling carrots and making people think things are golden. Yes, we will have a period of winter sandwiched in this season. It happens in even the most unproductive winters. My point isn't to cancel the season lol. It is to factually discuss the repetitive pattern until there are LEGIT mid range signs that itnis going to shift around. I know you guys know about this but a well-placed SSW event that breaks up the PV is one variable that can trigger a change. There was a nice discussion about the one that happened last January here - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-polar-vortex-early-2021 I haven't had chance to dive into the current placement of systems at the moment, but conditions that would make that circumstance more favorable were noted in that discussion - Quote While it’s not entirely clear yet what led this SSW to occur, in the weeks leading up to the SSW there was a fairly persistent low pressure weather system over the North Pacific and high pressure weather system over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. This pattern represents a really large (planetary-scale) “atmospheric wave”, which can grow bigger as it extends upward into the stratosphere given the right location and wind conditions. These same weather patterns have been linked to prior SSWs. An extratropical bomb cyclone in the North Pacific just days before the SSW might have reinforced this pattern, but this connection will have to be investigated further. I'm thinking that nothing has really been "persistent" because the northern (PAC) jet has been progressive and moving things along fairly rapidly. Interestingly enough, there was a significant SSW over the Antarctic back in 2019 that was analyzed and discussed - https://news.mit.edu/2021/how-sudden-stratospheric-warming-affected-northern-hemisphere-0722 But as rare as that type of event is in the Antarctic in comparison to the ones that happen in the Arctic, apparently another SSW was underway AGAIN in the Antarctic this past August - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/south-hemisphere-winter-stratosphere-warming-event-fa/ I haven't found any updates on the results of that yet. So there are all sorts of things going on that introduce more uncertainty to what the models are trying to accomplish for forecasting and the jury seems to still be out regarding whether a SSW in the Arctic might ever occur in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I know you guys know about this but a well-placed SSW event that breaks up the PV is one variable that can trigger a change. There was a nice discussion about the one that happened last January here - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-polar-vortex-early-2021 I haven't had chance to dive into the current placement of systems at the moment, but conditions that would make that circumstance more favorable were noted in that discussion - I'm thinking that nothing has really been "persistent" because the northern (PAC) jet has been progressive and moving things along fairly rapidly. Interestingly enough, there was a significant SSW over the Antarctic back in 2019 that was analyzed and discussed - https://news.mit.edu/2021/how-sudden-stratospheric-warming-affected-northern-hemisphere-0722 But as rare as that type of event is in the Antarctic in comparison to the ones that happen in the Arctic, apparently another SSW was underway AGAIN in the Antarctic this past August - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/south-hemisphere-winter-stratosphere-warming-event-fa/ I haven't found any updates on the results of that yet. So there are all sorts of things going on that introduce more uncertainty to what the models are trying to accomplish for forecasting and the jury seems to still be out regarding whether a SSW in the Arctic might ever occur in the near term. I posted regarding this in another subforum and was discussing with one of their posters for a few days now. Yep, this is the change the atmosphere needs imho. May hurt us, may help us.....but can't be any more boring than right now. The warming at 10mb across ens is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Winter just officially arrived 15min ago (10:58am)....think things will start looking up. 36F 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I have seen the can get kicked and recycled like this many times, never underestimate a dominant Pacific trough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Last February was near historic levels, and most of the area had snow on the ground for 7 to 10 days until Xmas Eve or close to it. Karma tank is empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 If the 12z GFS is right the botanical garden blooming flowers outside in NYC will still be blooming through the first week of January I plucked a tick off the cat this getting ridiculous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: If the 12z GFS is right the botanical garden blooming flowers outside in NYC will still be blooming through the first week of January I plucked a tick off the cat this getting ridiculous How does one know a cat has a tick unless you search him/her everyday? Sometimes I have one for a little while after tramping through the woods before I notice... 41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: How does one know a cat has a tick unless you search him/her everyday? Sometimes I have one for a little while after tramping through the woods before I notice... 41F Cuz the lil vampire was so swollen from gorging on blood it was ready to pop at twenty times it's size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 37F and showers. Not snow showers, just showers... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: 37F and showers. Not snow showers, just showers... Same here, it's actually like a heavy light rain, if that makes any sense. Like heavy drizzle but bigger drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Same here, it's actually like a heavy light rain, if that makes any sense. Like heavy drizzle but bigger drops. Yeah, I know what you mean. Watching the Birds and it's kinda the same at the Linc...definitely raw out. Down to 35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 0.36" of rain since last evening here in NW Chesco - an over performer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Watch out for black ice out there this AM - I just slid on a bridge.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Watch out for black ice out there this AM - I just slid on a bridge.... Yes, my temp is down to 33F. About .40” of drought-busting rain overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Will this winter be as bad as 19-20? No snow chances in sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 My low this morning was 34 but am still hanging in the 35 range. Got 0.01" late last night and another 0.17" deluge this morning for a total of 0.18" for the event. Currently 35 and clearing with sun peeping out and dp 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 53 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Will this winter be as bad as 19-20? No snow chances in sight. Hopefully not...thought it would be many years until we saw a winter that bad again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: Yes, my temp is down to 33F. About .40” of drought-busting rain overnight. Lucky you, I had rainfall run off due to the 1-2' deep frozen ground...drought still pending. 44F/partly cloudy 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Can we get 3 to 4" ice on local skate ponds this winter it may not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 If it wasn't for the -NAO many people could be gardening this New Years lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, RedSky said: Can we get 3 to 4" ice on local skate ponds this winter it may not happen I'm doubting if we have a day where the high is below freezing... 43F/gusty...not trash night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Can we get 3 to 4" ice on local skate ponds this winter it may not happen Sure, just hop in a time machine back to the 70s or even some years in the early 80s! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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