E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Winters in Philly are not great after a zero snow accumulation in December. 

 

Indeed!! Chester County has only had 14 seasons or 11% of the time (1972-3 had no snow at all) where the 1st snow occurred in January. Historically, 89% of the time the 1st snow occurs before New Year's Day. Only 1 year - 2016 ever recorded their 1st snowfall of the year in January and ended the season with above normal (36" annually for Chesco)

Below are the 14 years with the first snow in January and the seasonal snow totals. Average snow in those years was only 19.9" or 55% of normal seasonal snow

First Snow in January # Year Snowfall 1 1942 9.0 2 1944 18.7 3 1949 20.9 4 1957 12.3 5 1966 34.6 6 1972 19.8 7 1975 14.5 8 1976 19.0 9 1980 12.8 10 1992 9.5 11 2000 29.7 12 2002 11.1 13 2007 25.3 14 2016 40.8   Average 19.9

[LVwxHistorian]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Winters in Philly are not great after a zero snow accumulation in December. 

 

Don't tell that to 1978-79: Trace in DEC then 40"

Or 1977-78: 0.2" in DEC then 55"

[RedSky]

3 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:

Don't tell that to 1978-79: Trace in DEC then 40"

Or 1977-78: 0.2" in DEC then 55"

Not ALL winters but the majority of winters. The state of the hemisphere is not that of 77 or 78.

[RedSky]

There is a wild card scenario here however. Nobody and I mean NOBODY saw February of 2021 coming. The climate has changed radically so old analogs hold less weight. 

[ChescoWx]

17 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:

Don't tell that to 1978-79: Trace in DEC then 40"

Or 1977-78: 0.2" in DEC then 55"

Out in the burbs of Chesco 77/78 had 1.0" of snow in December and finished with 59.8" while 78/79 had no snow in December but 3" in November and finished with 39.2" of snow for the season

[ChescoWx]

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

There is a wild card scenario here however. Nobody and I mean NOBODY saw February of 2021 coming. The climate has changed radically so old analogs hold less weight. 

not to get into a big discussion but...."changed radically" don't see it....now a clear current cyclical warming period absolutely! Still suspect the next cooling cycle which I am confident starts later this decade will once again bring us back to a colder 3 to 4 decades of colder climate. Simply the normal ebb and flow of climate that we have and will always see!

[LVwxHistorian]

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

There is a wild card scenario here however. Nobody and I mean NOBODY saw February of 2021 coming. The climate has changed radically so old analogs hold less weight. 

IMHO, I think you're right on both points!

[Blue Dream]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

not to get into a big discussion but...."changed radically" don't see it....now a clear current cyclical warming period absolutely! Still suspect the next cooling cycle which I am confident starts later this decade will once again bring us back to a colder 3 to 4 decades of colder climate. Simply the normal ebb and flow of climate that we have and will always see!

I hope you’re right but there is no denying the planet is warming rapidly 

[The Iceman]

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Winters in Philly are not great after a zero snow accumulation in December. 

 

Yup, was hoping we’d at least score a minor event but not looking likely. I think below average winter is looking very likely. As long as the pna stays negative, even a -nao/-ao isn’t going to save us, just make it so that any system that stays south will be weak and sheared out. Unless the pac side changes radically, this winter is looking like a dud.  Don’t think it will be all that warm though, just more of the same of what we’ve seen. Cold and dry followed by warm up, rain, and repeat. Hopefully we see a few front end thumps… root for a weak nino next year…

[Albedoman]

To hell with predicting snow until around New years day. The models keep kicking that can down the street. My real concern however is not the snow but the record breaking drought conditions that are continuing in this crappy weather pattern.  If we do get some significant precip in the next few weeks and by significant,--- I mean over well over an inch, drought watches and even warnings will be issued for our area in PA.  This pattern of cold and dry fronts racing across our area every three days or so without precip  is doing more damage to our ecosystem.  Many areas rely on significant ground water recharge from Nov- Dec to keep their businesses going and supply well water  and have received zilcho recharge since the second week of October.  The fact that November was a little cooler than normal is the only saving grace.  If this drought pattern continues, the lack of snow will not be only the only major topic to discuss in this forum. 

It was really unusual to see Mt Holly be concerned about wild fires in December  the other day in their discussion.  I would expect red flag warnings maybe issued by the end of the week if this dryness keeps up. Take a walk in any forest right now with the amount of  extremely dry ground litter/leaf  debris for  its becoming a significant fire threat. How dry has it been ?

 

October 31 through now-- little over 2 inches of precip at LVIA  mostly in rainfall amounts of less than .25  which does nothing for groundwater recharge  because of the lower humidity levels- evaporates on the surface and because of all of the daily warm record highs. Many areas have received much less rainfall too and much of the rainfall has been hit and miss.

 

Normal rainfall at LVIA ---  over 7 inches during the aforementioned same period 

 

Summation- we are in some serious trouble if January does not give us a significant/major  precipitation event rain or snow. At this juncture, I would be happy with several back to back  one inch rainfall events with temps between 35- 45 degrees before any moisture in the soil has a chance to freeze tight in January.  Once the soils  freeze without  our vital recharge in place,  let the drought watches begin.   Landscaping firms and  nurseries are cringing right now as vegetation becomes damaged from wind burn and the roots dry out before the daily temps stay below  freezing.  The race is on.

 

Ski resorts which rely on surface ponds and groundwater wells to blow snow will become concerned too because under drought conditions, they will be limited on keeping their trails opened. For the other businesses like the regional water bottling companies in the LV area for the entire NE, they will be concerned too as their sources in Blue Mts start drying up.  That bottlers for  Deer Park, Niagara,  Desani and even Nestle in Breinigsville for the entire Northeast are concerned ---believe me.

 

 

 

 

[ChescoWx]

16 hours ago, Blue Dream said:

I hope you’re right but there is no denying the planet is warming rapidly 

Absolutely as we are in a clear warming phase.....but as always warming phases will be followed by cooling. Our climate periods are and will always be changing - no one can deny climate change!!

[ChescoWx]

While the past 2 months have been very dry overall we will be finishing 2021 with above normal rainfall in Chester County PA

[Hurricane Agnes]

4 hours ago, Albedoman said:

To hell with predicting snow until around New years day. The models keep kicking that can down the street. My real concern however is not the snow but the record breaking drought conditions that are continuing in this crappy weather pattern.  If we do get some significant precip in the next few weeks and by significant,--- I mean over well over an inch, drought watches and even warnings will be issued for our area in PA.  This pattern of cold and dry fronts racing across our area every three days or so without precip  is doing more damage to our ecosystem.  Many areas rely on significant ground water recharge from Nov- Dec to keep their businesses going and supply well water  and have received zilcho recharge since the second week of October.  The fact that November was a little cooler than normal is the only saving grace.  If this drought pattern continues, the lack of snow will not be only the only major topic to discuss in this forum. 

It was really unusual to see Mt Holly be concerned about wild fires in December  the other day in their discussion.  I would expect red flag warnings maybe issued by the end of the week if this dryness keeps up. Take a walk in any forest right now with the amount of  extremely dry ground litter/leaf  debris for  its becoming a significant fire threat. How dry has it been ?

 

October 31 through now-- little over 2 inches of precip at LVIA  mostly in rainfall amounts of less than .25  which does nothing for groundwater recharge  because of the lower humidity levels- evaporates on the surface and because of all of the daily warm record highs. Many areas have received much less rainfall too and much of the rainfall has been hit and miss.

 

Normal rainfall at LVIA ---  over 7 inches during the aforementioned same period 

 

Summation- we are in some serious trouble if January does not give us a significant/major  precipitation event rain or snow. At this juncture, I would be happy with several back to back  one inch rainfall events with temps between 35- 45 degrees before any moisture in the soil has a chance to freeze tight in January.  Once the soils  freeze without  our vital recharge in place,  let the drought watches begin.   Landscaping firms and  nurseries are cringing right now as vegetation becomes damaged from wind burn and the roots dry out before the daily temps stay below  freezing.  The race is on.

 

Ski resorts which rely on surface ponds and groundwater wells to blow snow will become concerned too because under drought conditions, they will be limited on keeping their trails opened. For the other businesses like the regional water bottling companies in the LV area for the entire NE, they will be concerned too as their sources in Blue Mts start drying up.  That bottlers for  Deer Park, Niagara,  Desani and even Nestle in Breinigsville for the entire Northeast are concerned ---believe me.

 

 

 

 

Going into fall,we were above normal here in metro Philly thanks to a rainy summer and then the remnants of Hurricanes like Ida.

The latest PA drought monitor map is showing this as of this past Tuesday (taken from here and selecting the state) - https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/MapArchive.aspx

 

I

I know that through today, I've had 0.80" and last month (Nov.) I had 0.89".  But in Oct. I had 6.08", Sept. 8.57", Aug. 10.78", Jul. 3.93", Jun. 5.75", & May 4.06".  So quite a bit of precip down here preceding the late fall period (some of which came from Ida remnants). YTD I have had 53.21" (including snow melt in the bucket), which is insane.

So if you look at May - Nov. after which the spigot turned off, you see this trend -

Cornell's NRCC drought monitor seems to align - https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/drought.html

It is also reflecting the dry up the past couple months so the question would be despite having the surface dryness now, whether the ground water is still somewhat charged from the summer.

 

 

[The Iceman]

3 hours ago, Albedoman said:

To hell with predicting snow until around New years day. The models keep kicking that can down the street. My real concern however is not the snow but the record breaking drought conditions that are continuing in this crappy weather pattern.  If we do get some significant precip in the next few weeks and by significant,--- I mean over well over an inch, drought watches and even warnings will be issued for our area in PA.  This pattern of cold and dry fronts racing across our area every three days or so without precip  is doing more damage to our ecosystem.  Many areas rely on significant ground water recharge from Nov- Dec to keep their businesses going and supply well water  and have received zilcho recharge since the second week of October.  The fact that November was a little cooler than normal is the only saving grace.  If this drought pattern continues, the lack of snow will not be only the only major topic to discuss in this forum. 

It was really unusual to see Mt Holly be concerned about wild fires in December  the other day in their discussion.  I would expect red flag warnings maybe issued by the end of the week if this dryness keeps up. Take a walk in any forest right now with the amount of  extremely dry ground litter/leaf  debris for  its becoming a significant fire threat. How dry has it been ?

 

October 31 through now-- little over 2 inches of precip at LVIA  mostly in rainfall amounts of less than .25  which does nothing for groundwater recharge  because of the lower humidity levels- evaporates on the surface and because of all of the daily warm record highs. Many areas have received much less rainfall too and much of the rainfall has been hit and miss.

 

Normal rainfall at LVIA ---  over 7 inches during the aforementioned same period 

 

Summation- we are in some serious trouble if January does not give us a significant/major  precipitation event rain or snow. At this juncture, I would be happy with several back to back  one inch rainfall events with temps between 35- 45 degrees before any moisture in the soil has a chance to freeze tight in January.  Once the soils  freeze without  our vital recharge in place,  let the drought watches begin.   Landscaping firms and  nurseries are cringing right now as vegetation becomes damaged from wind burn and the roots dry out before the daily temps stay below  freezing.  The race is on.

 

Ski resorts which rely on surface ponds and groundwater wells to blow snow will become concerned too because under drought conditions, they will be limited on keeping their trails opened. For the other businesses like the regional water bottling companies in the LV area for the entire NE, they will be concerned too as their sources in Blue Mts start drying up.  That bottlers for  Deer Park, Niagara,  Desani and even Nestle in Breinigsville for the entire Northeast are concerned ---believe me.

 

 

 

 

You said this last may and we had like the wettest summer on record

[JTA66]

Record breaking drought? They better issue water restrictions ASAP!

Actually feels like December out there today, 34F.

[hazwoper]

11 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Absolutely as we are in a clear warming phase.....but as always warming phases will be followed by cooling. Our climate periods are and will always be changing - no one can deny climate change!!

Good grief.  There is no doubt whatsoever that humans are greatly impacting the climate.  Stop, just stop.

[Albedoman]

 The May drought warning was on track  until we received much above normal precip from the numerous tropical storms. No one could envision the amounts of rainfall from these numerous tropical storms.  They were record breaking flood events in the LV and much of the heavy rainfall ran off after the ground water table was fully recharged, especially from Ida.  The tropical storm season died in mid October  and after that the spigot got shut off again.  Why am I raising the alarm?  Because many of you do not live in a Karst geological area. These areas are extremely sensitive to groundwater withdrawal and seasonal recharges. I have two USGS stream gauges in my backyard that I monitor and nearby  Lehigh County Authority wellhead gauges. The base flows of the Little Lehigh Creek has fallen by inches and once the ground is frozen, that's it for groundwater  recharge unless we get a good snowpack. Many of you expect that, I however,  do not expect that unless this current weather pattern does a 180 in the next 30 days. With 1-2 ft deep frozen ground conditions, rainfall simply runs off.  All I am doing is sounding the possibility of a drought if these these current conditions continue. None of you have even thought about it as you are too busy worrying about the next SECS event. 

By the way, the data supplied in the above maps by Hurricane Agnes  is for a six month period . They are not applicable in the last 30 days as this is a critical recharge period for groundwater for the next season in our area.  Again, if we do not get adequate snowfall and precip with ground water recharge  in the next 30-45 days, these USGS maps will change in a hurry. Whats funny,  I have an extensive hydrogeologist education and you still chose to ridicule me. Who is the snow weenie now? 

   

[Birds~69]

56 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

 The May drought warning was on track  until we received much above normal precip from the numerous tropical storms. No one could envision the amounts of rainfall from these numerous tropical storms.  They were record breaking flood events in the LV and much of the heavy rainfall ran off after the ground water table was fully recharged, especially from Ida.  The tropical storm season died in mid October  and after that the spigot got shut off again.  Why am I raising the alarm?  Because many of you do not live in a Karst geological area. These areas are extremely sensitive to groundwater withdrawal and seasonal recharges. I have two USGS stream gauges in my backyard that I monitor and nearby  Lehigh County Authority wellhead gauges. The base flows of the Little Lehigh Creek has fallen by inches and once the ground is frozen, that's it for groundwater  recharge unless we get a good snowpack. Many of you expect that, I however,  do not expect that unless this current weather pattern does a 180 in the next 30 days. With 1-2 ft deep frozen ground conditions, rainfall simply runs off.  All I am doing is sounding the possibility of a drought if these these current conditions continue. None of you have even thought about it as you are too busy worrying about the next SECS event. 

By the way, the data supplied in the above maps by Hurricane Agnes  is for a six month period . They are not applicable in the last 30 days as this is a critical recharge period for groundwater for the next season in our area.  Again, if we do not get adequate snowfall and precip with ground water recharge  in the next 30-45 days, these USGS maps will change in a hurry. Whats funny,  I have an extensive hydrogeologist education and you still chose to ridicule me. Who is the snow weenie now? 

   

Who has that? SE PA is 5-6F above normal fo Dec so far, temps under 32F have been kinda rare...

 

[RedSky]

Wait a second...one to two feet frozen ground....here in Pennsylvania...in 2021...

[Birds~69]

Things to do this week:

1. Contact someone to change century old snowfall amounts

2. Merge with the NY subforum

3. Stock up on bottled water due to a impending drought 

26F at 11:30pm...

[RedSky]

19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Things to do this week:

1. Contact someone to change century old snowfall amounts

2. Merge with the NY subforum

3. Stock up on bottled water due to a impending drought 

26F at 11:30pm...

Large water deposits were found on Mars were fine

[MJO812]

Cmc at 222 now show a snowstorm for parts of the area. Flip flop.

[Albedoman]

https://www.phrc.psu.edu/assets/docs/Publications/SoilFreezeDepthGuideforManufacturedHousing2ndED.pdf  for a normal year

[RedSky]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc at 222 now show a snowstorm for parts of the area. Flip flop.

All giddy waiting for the foot of snow tomorrow the new and improved CMC promised me last week...oh wait

 

[The Iceman]

10 hours ago, Albedoman said:

 The May drought warning was on track  until we received much above normal precip from the numerous tropical storms. No one could envision the amounts of rainfall from these numerous tropical storms.  They were record breaking flood events in the LV and much of the heavy rainfall ran off after the ground water table was fully recharged, especially from Ida.  The tropical storm season died in mid October  and after that the spigot got shut off again.  Why am I raising the alarm?  Because many of you do not live in a Karst geological area. These areas are extremely sensitive to groundwater withdrawal and seasonal recharges. I have two USGS stream gauges in my backyard that I monitor and nearby  Lehigh County Authority wellhead gauges. The base flows of the Little Lehigh Creek has fallen by inches and once the ground is frozen, that's it for groundwater  recharge unless we get a good snowpack. Many of you expect that, I however,  do not expect that unless this current weather pattern does a 180 in the next 30 days. With 1-2 ft deep frozen ground conditions, rainfall simply runs off.  All I am doing is sounding the possibility of a drought if these these current conditions continue. None of you have even thought about it as you are too busy worrying about the next SECS event. 

By the way, the data supplied in the above maps by Hurricane Agnes  is for a six month period . They are not applicable in the last 30 days as this is a critical recharge period for groundwater for the next season in our area.  Again, if we do not get adequate snowfall and precip with ground water recharge  in the next 30-45 days, these USGS maps will change in a hurry. Whats funny,  I have an extensive hydrogeologist education and you still chose to ridicule me. Who is the snow weenie now? 

   

That’s absolutely false. We had the wettest July on record and none of that precipitation was from tropical storms, it was all from the pattern in place. You your narrative of the epic may drought went completely off the rails even without the tropical storms. Btw if it’s not going to snow, the ground isn’t going to epically freeze for the water to run off. This isn’t New England. You’re not going to get 1-2 ft of hard frozen ground with lows in the upper 20s every night and highs well above freezing. And if seasonal snowfall was such a vital part of groundwater replenishment in these parts, why wasn’t there an epic drought back in 19-20 when most areas had single digit snowfall for the year?  I predict your call of epic drought conditions will go the same way as the call back in May. You cannot start calling for a potential mega drought after 30 days of slightly below normal precipitation. It’s ludicrous especially coming on the heels of one of the wettest years on record and several precipitation events on the near horizon. It doesn’t look dry the next 15 days, snow or not. 

[ChescoWx]

12 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Good grief.  There is no doubt whatsoever that humans are greatly impacting the climate.  Stop, just stop.

You may be right.....or maybe not

[ChescoWx]

GFS back to snow N and W for Christmas AM....it is on a hot streak!!!

[Hurricane Agnes]

13 hours ago, Albedoman said:

 The May drought warning was on track  until we received much above normal precip from the numerous tropical storms. No one could envision the amounts of rainfall from these numerous tropical storms.  They were record breaking flood events in the LV and much of the heavy rainfall ran off after the ground water table was fully recharged, especially from Ida.  The tropical storm season died in mid October  and after that the spigot got shut off again. 

There was a nor'easter Oct. 25 - 26.

Quote

Why am I raising the alarm?  Because many of you do not live in a Karst geological area. These areas are extremely sensitive to groundwater withdrawal and seasonal recharges. I have two USGS stream gauges in my backyard that I monitor and nearby  Lehigh County Authority wellhead gauges. The base flows of the Little Lehigh Creek has fallen by inches and once the ground is frozen, that's it for groundwater  recharge unless we get a good snowpack.

I live in the Wissahickon Watershed with smaller creeks and main stem tributaries that feed the Schuylkill River where the drinking water comes from for where I live.  Much of the city's infrastructure is older than a century (in fact there were 3 main breaks last week literally a few miles from where I live which thankfully only resulted in a water pressure drop at my house but complete outages closer to the breaks).  I regularly monitor the USGS gauge for the Wissahickon (at the mouth) where it flows into the Schuylkill and during those excessive rains and flood events, have posted the charts.

 

Quote

Many of you expect that, I however,  do not expect that unless this current weather pattern does a 180 in the next 30 days. With 1-2 ft deep frozen ground conditions, rainfall simply runs off.  All I am doing is sounding the possibility of a drought if these these current conditions continue. None of you have even thought about it as you are too busy worrying about the next SECS event. 

We are only in December.  The temps of the ground and the nearby HUGE phenomena known as the Atlantic ocean, doesn't really chill down until months from now, even if there are occasional arctic intrusions earlier in the winter (and even those would need to be sustained to get the ground temps down to what they might be by late January into February).  And I doubt if you have ever seen me post about a SECS event.  I just monitor the various weather events that come through all year.

Quote

By the way, the data supplied in the above maps by Hurricane Agnes  is for a six month period . They are not applicable in the last 30 days as this is a critical recharge period for groundwater for the next season in our area.  

I know what I posted may have appeared to be "too long" but the very first map was showing the drought conditions as of December 14 (and was posted on December 16th).  There is no indication of drought in the LV based on that.  The only area showing drought conditions was south-central PA -

 

You can go to the sites I linked to and do various time periods.  The Cornell site has this for the last 30 days (attached at the very bottom of the post next to the nor'easter sat image from Oct. 25 - 26)

 

Quote

Again, if we do not get adequate snowfall and precip with ground water recharge  in the next 30-45 days, these USGS maps will change in a hurry. Whats funny,  I have an extensive hydrogeologist education and you still chose to ridicule me. Who is the snow weenie now? 

   

Not sure why you are not using the resources that are out there to show what has progressed over the past 6 months. I am a retired ACS-certified chemist and at least take advantage of the internet as an amazing resource!

You had this happen as of early September so by now, the levels may be back closer to normal and getting dry - https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/news/2021/09/how-high-will-lehigh-valley-waterways-get-when-will-the-water-reach-its-peak.html

But climatology in this state dictates certain times of the year when it does get dry and when it happens in the fall, the remnants from tropical cyclones (or non-tropical nor'easters) usually swoop in to save the day, although not 100% of the time.

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc at 222 now show a snowstorm for parts of the area. Flip flop.

Gone at 12z . Flip flop. Nina doing what Nina does best. Lots of head fakes on the ops. Best to go with the ens for the LR and even such, take with a grain of salt.

[Hurricane Agnes]

I think today may have been my coldest high for the season so far at 36, after a low of 23 this morning.  The big story was the dp departures, dropping down to a 14.  I did pop out briefly this morning to see the Full Cold Moon that was setting.  It was definitely brisk out.

Currently 35 and clear (as we head for sunset and coming up on what will be the next to to the longest night of the year), with dp 16.