Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 hours ago, RedSky said: GFS has highs in the 20's the 24th-25th and CMC is in the 30's 1 hour ago, RedSky said: ECM is 45-50F the 24th-25th Ummm...which one do you think will verify? 62F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 A year ago today Philly 6.3" of snow....Philly at 65F currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Ummm...which one do you think will verify? 62F If my life depended on it the ECM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Said back in Nov that we would get tired of mid 40s to low 50s and partly sunny stretches. So far has lived up to hype of a Nina with no real excitement or storminess. Going to need patience this year. Also said at that time that the biggest key to the winter will be the NAO phase. Some changes are coming to my outlook for JFM that I will try and post later. Ralph in this forum is Ray of the New England forum. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: A year ago today Philly 6.3" of snow....Philly at 65F currently. Really, I don't remember that at all. Well, we know that is not happening this December through Dec. 22nd anyways. I think we are waiting past New Year's this year for sure with the relatively warm zonal flow off the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: Really, I don't remember that at all. Well, we know that is not happening this December through Dec. 22nd anyways. I think we are waiting past New Year's this year for sure with the relatively warm zonal flow off the Pacific Allentown/LV received 8-9"+ if I remember correctly... 56F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: If my life depended on it the ECM I was being a tad sarcastic, of course it will. It's warmer... 55F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 34 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Really, I don't remember that at all. Well, we know that is not happening this December through Dec. 22nd anyways. I think we are waiting past New Year's this year for sure with the relatively warm zonal flow off the Pacific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: That map is a bit low for LV. (total storm) Lehigh airport recorded 11.5" https://www.mcall.com/news/weather/mc-nws-lehigh-valley-winter-storm-december-snowfall-20201217-24xpbkf6tvaaviq4nyi2olpvau-story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: That map is a bit low for LV. (total storm) Lehigh airport recorded 11.5" https://www.mcall.com/news/weather/mc-nws-lehigh-valley-winter-storm-december-snowfall-20201217-24xpbkf6tvaaviq4nyi2olpvau-story.html I have 37 snapshots of the doppler radar images from the storm (I usually do one about every 1/2 hour) and the LSRs reported by the program come and go on the maps over time. I have one from a couple hours later that is showing what may have been around the Bloomsburg area reporting a 12" as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I have 37 snapshots of the doppler radar images from the storm (I usually do one about every 1/2 hour) and the LSRs reported by the program come and go on the maps over time. I have one from a couple hours later that is showing what may have been around the Bloomsburg area reporting a 12" as an example. I remember they got nailed pretty good out/up that way. Certainly a I95 N and W special... 56F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Wow amazing what a difference a year can make. I am astounded also by the first tornado ever recorded in Minnesota in December History yesterday too. This year so far is very different. I am wondering if these extreme weather events we are seeing in The PAC NW with all the flooding, the extreme tornado outbreak on Dec. 10th, the tornado outbreak yesterday, and the record high temperatures are a signal of a major change that will take place soon after the New Years or shortly after Christmas?? What I am thinking is maybe La Nina is peeking and we are watching the Pendulum swinging to another regime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Birds~69 said: A year ago today Philly 6.3" of snow....Philly at 65F currently. Yeah, I went back and looked at the thread. Pepperidge Farm remembers when it snowed in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Yeah, I went back and looked at the thread. Pepperidge Farm remembers when it snowed in December. Nice picture. We're not even close to that. We don't even have tickets to the game... 57F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Today's high in NW Chester County was 59.1 this was the warmest December 16 since the 64 back in 1975 - the all-time record high for the date is the 67 back in 1971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: I remember they got nailed pretty good out/up that way. Certainly a I95 N and W special... 56F There was a front-end thump and then it changed over to a sleet fest, finishing off as a freezing rain special that compacted the snow and left it with a frozen crust. In fact, I had saved a copy of my sigline with the events recorded from last year and I had this - Quote 12/16 - 12/17/20 = 5.51" (snow/sleet/ZR compacted) In other news, there were 3 RERs issued today - Finally... I made it up to 61 as a high after a low of 47 and for a change, the sun was out pretty much all day (didn't cloud up like it did yesterday). The big difference today as well was the dp - no longer in the low 20s but up in the 50s. Currently 56 and clear with dp 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: Wow amazing what a difference a year can make. I am astounded also by the first tornado ever recorded in Minnesota in December History yesterday too. This year so far is very different. I am wondering if these extreme weather events we are seeing in The PAC NW with all the flooding, the extreme tornado outbreak on Dec. 10th, the tornado outbreak yesterday, and the record high temperatures are a signal of a major change that will take place soon after the New Years or shortly after Christmas?? What I am thinking is maybe La Nina is peeking and we are watching the Pendulum swinging to another regime. CPC/NCEP put out their most recent ENSO forecast last week - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Quote EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 9 December 2021 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June). In November, the continuation of La Niña was reflected in the below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last week, all of the Niño indices were between -0.7°C and -1.2°C, with the largest departures occurring in the easternmost regions of Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 [Fig. 2]. Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened slightly compared to the previous month [Fig. 3], but a large pool of negative temperature anomalies still extended across the central and eastern Pacific, down to ~200m depth [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies persisted over most of the equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection and rainfall were observed over Indonesia and convection was suppressed over the central and western equatorial Pacific [Fig. 5]. The Southern Oscillation Index and Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index were more positive than the previous month. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña. The IRI/CPC plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will continue through the February-April 2022 season [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus anticipates a transition to ENSO-neutral sometime during the Northern Hemisphere spring, with chances for La Niña declining below 50% after March-May 2022. The chance of a moderate-strength La Niña declined slightly from last month's update, but there is still a 59% chance of the Niño-3.4 index reaching a value less than -1.0°C for the November 2021 - January 2022 season. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Dec. 16th). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 January 2022. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected]. Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Their 3-month outlooks issued today - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/ (sorry ) We'll see if any of this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Nice picture. We're not even close to that. We don't even have tickets to the game... 57F It seems like more than a year ago. Maybe cuz there's nothing on the near term horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, KamuSnow said: It seems like more than a year ago. Maybe cuz there's nothing on the near term horizon. I can't even imagine it snowing, accumulating and when you walk it makes that "crunch" sound... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Have been watching the 10mb spv on the gefs for a while and the waves of warming. Nothing earth shattering like last year where the pv split several times but when the pulses of warming have shown and there is even the slightest bullying of the spv there is a correlation with the higher heights building in the NAO propagating from Scandinavia. Some key features setting up the next 14 days will be the East based -NAO retrograding to a thumb ridge in the N Atl to a West based -NAO. The GEFS idea make sense to keep the PNA generally negative with the lower heights in W Canada and the NW US feeding a very positively tilted -PNA trof. Cold air source will originate from the NW and keep pressing down under the -NAO and 50/50 tandem tango. We never really see the SER completely flatten but that isn't a bad thing as we move later into January. Big window coming up as the pattern continues to step down and look more mid-winterish especially headed into the New Year. If the NAO look persists, which I think it will despite some of the climate modeling LR forecasts, chances will be plenty moving forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Weather World bombed on their previous 30 day outlook with a cold first half of December. They like seasonable temps through January 19. The big problem is La Nina has neutered the southern jet stream. January is looking average with continued below normal precipitation. Nickle and dime snows a coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Christmas snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Latest first snow (.1" or more) for a season was the 1994-1995 season in Philly 2/3/95 (1.2") I'm highly confident we can beat it... 58F at 11:50pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Latest first snow (.1" or more) for a season was the 1994-1995 season in Philly 2/3/95 (1.2") I'm highly confident we can beat it... 58F at 11:50pm Why so negative ? Pattern looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why so negative ? Pattern looks good. Of course I'm kidding (I think?)....you long term model hug too much. Christmas is way in the future and you have precip map 3 post up^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Of course I'm kidding (I think?)....you long term model hug too much. Christmas is way in the future and you have precip map 3 post up^ Who cares It's a weather forum and the pattern is going to get better. Look at the pattern. Negative NAO block is moving up in time . That will lessen the ridge in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who cares It's a weather forum and the pattern is going to get better. Look at the pattern. Negative NAO block is moving up in time . That will lessen the ridge in the east. We had the below happen last Christmas. Pretty cool sat image, but the result (from my last year's sig) - 12/25/20=Trace (flurries) (you're trying though ) Climate change is real - as a note, when this year is done, it will be 27 years since the last time a below 0 temp was recorded at KPHL (1994). IMHO, the models are having a hard time with their algorithms deciphering/factoring in the changes in climatology. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 38 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: We had the below happen last Christmas. Pretty cool sat image, but the result (from my last year's sig) - 12/25/20=Trace (flurries) (you're trying though ) Climate change is real - as a note, when this year is done, it will be 27 years since the last time a below 0 temp was recorded at KPHL (1994). IMHO, the models are having a hard time with their algorithms deciphering/factoring in the changes in climatology. Glenn was saying this the other day about temps. Pretty much whatever the models were saying and he was predicting the temp was approx +2 above his prediction for many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Latest first snow (.1" or more) for a season was the 1994-1995 season in Philly 2/3/95 (1.2") I'm highly confident we can beat it... 58F at 11:50pm The rest was on the 4th. I remember that snow, it was the only one of the season, we got around 11". I think PHL got 8" or so. Don't forget 1972-73, the 1st snow never happened, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: The rest was on the 4th. I remember that snow, it was the only one of the season, we got around 11". I think PHL got 8" or so. Don't forget 1972-73, the 1st snow never happened, lol. Yeah, I missed that. Tons of stats on this sites... https://jcweather.com/100earliestsnow2.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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