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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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my god the LR globals suck this morning and the GEM continues to donut hole us and give us the finger. I am ready for good time spring thunderstorms. This winter will go in the record books for sure as the year with no winter storm model consensus too.  we could not even get pity flakes or just a few marbles of sleet  last night in Macungie. The only things that happened from this storm event was heavier rainfall, the snow was  gone in less than three hours, the temp gradient was remarkable from 39 to 60 degrees in four hours and during the night , the flash freeze did occur at sunset yesterday and finally the ski resorts will be  in the red for sure. 

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2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

How does the snow pile look? I'd image not good...life support or decreased?

21F

 

It's smaller but still decent. Reinforcements would be nice. Maybe something will materialize Monday night, otherwise the next week looks a bit desert-dry for snow right now. Kind of warmish even, after today.

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13 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Snow squall warning till 10:30am it’s ripping SN+ at the moment 

Just saw the box on the radar and was wondering what the heck?

Quote

Snow Squall Warning

SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST SAT FEB 5 2022

PAC011-051530-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SQ.W.0001.220205T1441Z-220205T1530Z/
941 AM EST SAT FEB 5 2022
Berks County-

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Central Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 1030 AM EST.

* At 940 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located over
Strausstown, or 9 miles south of Schuylkill Haven, moving southeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind
gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.

* This includes the following highways...
Interstate 78 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 18 and 24.
Interstate 176 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 5 and 11.

Locations impacted include...
Reading, Wyomissing, Birdsboro, Sinking Spring, Bernville,
Strausstown, Fairview Hgts, Spring Ridge, Shillington, West Reading,
Mount Penn, Mohnton, Kenhorst, St. Lawrence, Wyomissing Hills, West
Lawn, Lorane, Reiffton, Whitfield and West Wyomissing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Reduce your speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the
visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions.

Slow Down! Rapid changes in visibility and road conditions are
expected with this dangerous snow squall. Be alert for sudden
whiteout conditions.

Wet roadways will quickly freeze. Black ice will cause roads, bridges
and overpasses to become slick and dangerous. Slow down and be
prepared for sudden loss of traction.

LAT...LON 4055 7615 4027 7579 4020 7590 4052 7626
          4055 7615

$$

FK1yDLGVIAUHxGC.jpg

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RGEM and others really close to making Mon-Tue an 'event' for parts of the region. Temps are marginal but with proper timing, track, and intensification it could actually creep up on us and work. Been trending better last 24 hrs. Miller B-ish where it develops off the Carolinas but probably a hair too late for us but we'll see what happens. Worth keeping an eye on anyway:rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_54.thumb.png.2342115bc6945bffe4f0f0235596b176.png

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Global ops all have a signal for right around Valentine's Day.

GFS is all N stream and a sloppy late phase at best...keeps the southern sw separate:

gfs_mslpa_us_35.thumb.png.b00c8dd2ec3eee4dc18bbbb2dfb0b3a1.png

 

Euro is a phased bomb but has that classic look going into the event:

ec-fast_mslpa_us_9.thumb.png.e264b41c05936107e9fb8f3a0e222cbe.png

 

The CMC is probably our best case look with a phased system that remains progressive and doesn't amp up quite like the Euro:

gem_mslpa_us_38.thumb.png.826e1a06219b9815a9bb162de3845eee.png

 

With this said the ens aren't exactly honking, so it's even more intriguing to me that all 3 global ops have a trackable event during this period while the ens means are just meh.

 

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17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Global ops all have a signal for right around Valentine's Day.

GFS is all N stream and a sloppy late phase at best...keeps the southern sw separate:

gfs_mslpa_us_35.thumb.png.b00c8dd2ec3eee4dc18bbbb2dfb0b3a1.png

Given how many times we've seen a sloppy/late phase this season, I'd bet on this until we get two days before and everything looks good, lol

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