Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 How the times sure have changed. Wrt the weekend potential, if this were 10 years ago we all would be drooling. Euro op and ens screaming MECS+, CMC just to the SE, and the GFS with a big jump this run now also with the low pressure just too far to the SE. All this 5 days out. We would have been saying this is right where we want it knowing the old N trend with these SS systems 5 days out. Ahh, the good old days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How the times sure have changed. Wrt the weekend potential, if this were 10 years ago we all would be drooling. Euro op and ens screaming MECS+, CMC just to the SE, and the GFS with a big jump this run now also with the low pressure just too far to the SE. All this 5 days out. We would have been saying this is right where we want it knowing the old N trend with these SS systems 5 days out. Ahh, the good old days. First all the models show an absolute plastering of snow 7 days out, then they pull back some and we all lament. Then the models slowly regress back to semi-significant, plowable snow. Rinse and repeat, for as long as I've been a member. It's a roller coaster each and every time, and I for one choose to enjoy the ride with all of my anonymous weather friends. Even @RedSky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro doubled down. Absolute crush job 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro doubled down. Absolute crush job GFS is still confused. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 0z Euro wants to make it a Miller A up the coast and the 6z GFS kicks it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Models all over the map wrt to what is going on over the MW. The Canadian seems to be similar to the GFS except it forms the low off the coast of the Carolinas and then sends it OTS (but brushes the southern part of up here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Isn’t The trend so far this winter is to bring these storms NW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Looks like a blend of the gfs and euro will likely be closest to reality for the weekend. Doubt the euro bomb MECS+ scenario is the final outcome and I also doubt the GFS ots is going to happen given amplification in the flow. Tbh the CMC is probably the closest to what will happen based on phasing, location, sw ejection, and ridging over top of the ull. Probably a stripe of heavier snows much like the early Jan system that affected DE and S NJ and left most of PA high and dry. Hopefully we can bring it farther N and W but im not feeling it. Starting to see some slight hints on the last 2 euro runs of ticks towards other guidance. 12z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Bottomed out at 30 just after 1:30 this morning and have been slowly on the upswing, where it is currently partly cloudy and 33 with dp 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 0z Euro wants to make it a Miller A up the coast and the 6z GFS kicks it OTS. The Euro has High Pressure in Iowa and Missouri not moving much, pretty stable. On the GFS the high is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: The Euro has High Pressure in Iowa and Missouri not moving much, pretty stable. On the GFS the high is all over the place. Here is what the Euro did between the 0z and 6z (for the same time frame using the 6z's last frame) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuniorTT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This skinny lake effect band streaking all the way across the state has been a stubborn little thing this morning! We've picked up an inch already and it keeps getting harder. Big flakes, quarter mile vis. My point and click forecast has 0-1% chance of precip. Sneaky little 'event'! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Mostly sunny skies, but getting a stray flurry or two drifting by, 35F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Very light dusting from a quick but impressive snow shower on barnegat bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, JuniorTT said: This skinny lake effect band streaking all the way across the state has been a stubborn little thing this morning! We've picked up an inch already and it keeps getting harder. Big flakes, quarter mile vis. My point and click forecast has 0-1% chance of precip. Sneaky little 'event'! Yeah - there is apparently a broad lake-effect batch of precip in the middle of the state too. The below is the streamer that has been sitting over you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuniorTT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Yeah - there is apparently a broad lake-effect batch of precip in the middle of the state too. The below is the streamer that has been sitting over you! Thanks for the images! It's still ripping snow but now the wind is way up too so any meaningful measurements are out the window. Front sidewalk blew itself clear, driveway is drifted 2-8" deep and counting. Typical for my place regardless of actual snowfall though. I thought today was going to be a decent melting day but I'm going to be out with the snow blower instead! I would guess we've gotten 2" just eyeballing rates and duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuniorTT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 And just like that it's sagged south on me. Zero wind, blue skies overhead, and a gray wall of heavy snow slowly drifting away to the south. Typical for lake effect I suppose. Highlight of the winter...so far! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, JuniorTT said: And just like that it's sagged south on me. Zero wind, blue skies overhead, and a gray wall of heavy snow slowly drifting away to the south. Typical for lake effect I suppose. Highlight of the winter...so far! Someone in "SE Nazareth" reported 0.60". Those streamers probably operate like plumes of smoke where there will be breaks in the flow dependent on the strength of the wind and then when the wind shifts direction slightly, obviously the streamer shifts with it. It always cracks me up when some of those streamers manage to make it all the way down here to Philly, sometimes creating a brief flizzard. I'll look on the radar at amazement that it made it all the way diagonally across the state like that. Edit to add KCCX's view of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Can confirm as I drove across 195 about an hour ago there was what I would struggle to call a squall around exit 22ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 And Mt. Holly mentioned the LE streamers - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 If we can squeeze 1-3" on Thursday followed by 2-4" Saturday, I'd be content tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 It's windier today w/o the wind advisory, 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: It's windier today w/o the wind advisory, 36F. By far...people just to the N having fun. 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12z NAM has this in its last frame (just coming into range). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 12z NAM has this in its last frame (just coming into range). That's a comfortable depiction, despite it being the NAM. The Highs mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Looking more and more like a similar tracks and band of snow as the early Jan storm that hit S NJ and left SE PA with flurries. Could be wrong, but thats my take on this one. I think N and W are out of luck this go round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Looking more and more like a similar tracks and band of snow as the early Jan storm that hit S NJ and left SE PA with flurries. Could be wrong, but thats my take on this one. I think N and W are out of luck this go round Yes it does this winter blows. It blows cold air. On the 0z ECM despite the pretty graphics of the OP there were two ensemble camps half were an out to sea scraper like all other guidance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I had it with the euro delivering hopium all month it's turning into the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro has lost its mojo no doubt. Regardless of verification score, when it comes to larger scale features in what used to be its wheelhouse, it is struggling to get it right then correcting over time. From a weenie/hobbyist standpoint this guidance has taken a step back when it was upgraded a few years back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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