JTA66 Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, dseagull said: Incredibly interesting to watch most models, besides the GFS make a 180 from suppression to Rain for I95 east, in just 12 hours. Kind of raises some red flags. When will the energy from the S/W be over land and sampled? Tomorrow night? Ha! You read my mind but I wasn't going to say it cause I didn't want to come across as being a Deb. But yeah, quite a dramatic shift in 12 hours. But it's across most of the guidance in some form or another, not just one model suite, so I'm not sure what to make of it. Just going to enjoy it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The ECM ensembles like the others say relax 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: The ECM ensembles like the others say relax Yup. Couple inland runners but looks like the mean going right near bench mark 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This morning was brutal. However I was only mildly uncomfortable thanks to many layers (fleece thermals ftw!), but I still need to figure out something to warm my feet up. Thankfully the site I'm working at put in place a work cycle (similar to what we do in extreme heat) so I spent about half the time outside and half the time warming up in my car. This afternoon was more bearable at least. We got to a low of 14.7°F at my house this morning, and the dusting of snow was a nice little surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Today's splits of 21.1 / 13.8. Our coldest AM low since the 12.0 on March 7, 2019 and the coldest maximum temperature since the 17.6 back on February 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 18F. Not much temp range today from a low of 15F to 21F (or 22F?) Jim's last night anchoring the 11pm news.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 18F. Not much temp range today from a low of 15F to 21F (or 22F?) Jim's last night anchoring the 11pm news.... Wow, look at those temps…winter canceled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ended up with a high of 24 today, but that came at MIDNIGHT, so definitely had some CAA that oozed in! My "daytime" high was around 22. Currently 19 and clear, the winds have died down a lot and are closing in on calm, and have a dp that has finally moved up to 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9F Deep winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Hit a low of 15.1F this morning. Warming up quickly now, though. Up over 3F in the last hour. Currently 19.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Bottomed out at 18 this morning and some time after 4:30, temp and dp were creeping up and currently at 21 with dp 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low last evening of 12.3 was our coldest reading since the 6.6 low on February 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Going forward, woild it be possible to post the model run maps? It makes it easier for this noob and lurker to visually understand. Cheers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I am fairly comfortable calling this a non-event for people east of PHL. A couple of shifts could result in mixed precip but I am comfortable making the call now. It will be more interesting N&W but it is looking to be a slop fest at this point. I find this stuff so intriguing though. I am so invested in places like GA and SC getting snow because it's less common and at a high level, it almost sounds unbelievable that it could snow in GA and rain in NJ. It's truly amazing stuff and I am OK not having to stare at snow pack for 3 weeks. I'll for sure be checking in on this one but it looks like a fascinating southern special - the weather channel will definitely be on my TV all day that day. Blessings all! -RSC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: I am fairly comfortable calling this a non-event for people east of PHL. A couple of shifts could result in mixed precip but I am comfortable making the call now. It will be more interesting N&W but it is looking to be a slop fest at this point. I find this stuff so intriguing though. I am so invested in places like GA and SC getting snow because it's less common and at a high level, it almost sounds unbelievable that it could snow in GA and rain in NJ. It's truly amazing stuff and I am OK not having to stare at snow pack for 3 weeks. I'll for sure be checking in on this one but it looks like a fascinating southern special - the weather channel will definitely be on my TV all day that day. Blessings all! -RSC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 59 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: I am fairly comfortable calling this a non-event for people east of PHL. A couple of shifts could result in mixed precip but I am comfortable making the call now. It will be more interesting N&W but it is looking to be a slop fest at this point. I find this stuff so intriguing though. I am so invested in places like GA and SC getting snow because it's less common and at a high level, it almost sounds unbelievable that it could snow in GA and rain in NJ. It's truly amazing stuff and I am OK not having to stare at snow pack for 3 weeks. I'll for sure be checking in on this one but it looks like a fascinating southern special - the weather channel will definitely be on my TV all day that day. Blessings all! -RSC From an accumulating snow perspective I agree. Think wind potential is serious and depending on the details of our likely coastal plain track can’t rule out thunder or locally heavy rain though….but if snow is someone’s entire game at and around PHL I’d definitely hit the expectations reset button once the 12z suite is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Agreed that this looks like a non event for 95 south and east. N and W should at least see a decent thump 4-8" potentially before changing over though. Further N and W you are, the better off you will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, kickingupastorm said: Going forward, woild it be possible to post the model run maps? It makes it easier for this noob and lurker to visually understand. Cheers. What often happens here is that if there is a real legitimate threat, this place gets crazy busy and the model maps from all kinds of sources will get posted continually. Otherwise the "dud" runs get tucked away and you can hear a pin drop. Just looking at the 6z GFS verbatim, it shows a very active pattern of all kinds of little storms rolling across the U.S. that either go over us or north/south of us. A couple are clippers and there looks like what is something rolling along the southern jetstream that goes out to sea at the same time as one of those clipper passes near us. The last one on the far end of the GFS range looks almost like a summer time thing with a low that forms off the coast of the Carolinas and becomes some kind of nor'easter way east of here. So taking a crack at it with the below clips taken from the 6z GFS what I "see" - 1 - Great lakes thingy jumps to the coast and out to sea (~Jan 13/14) 2 - The storm we had been focusing on for the Jan 17 time frame since its appearance in the long range... but it has now shifted to possibly end up as an inland runner or coastal hugger (at least on the last couple GFS runs) <-- whatever it does, it looks solid as some kind of event with precipitation but not sure what type 3 - Alberta clipper #1 (~Jan 20) 4 - Alberta clipper #2 + some southern jetstream system staying south parallel with the clipper (not phased) (~Jan 23 - 25) 5 - Some storm that forms off the Carolinas and goes out to sea (~Jan 26) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm routing for option 3! #2 looking like a mess! Things could change though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Is it safe to say wait till the 18z Thursday before locking in? On the other hand, it feels like mid March out there today compared to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Is it safe to say wait till the 18z Thursday before locking in? On the other hand, it feels like mid March out there today compared to yesterday. I wouldn't even trust the 18z (at least the for Jan. 17 storm that has continually popped up on all the models) but start paying attention to the Friday runs. I have seen too many mid-range schizophrenic solutions. Temp here has shot up to 38 with dp 23. Still have some patches of snow here and there. Some clouds have also appeared, so it is partly sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Two bad trends 1) the main shortwave slowed which allowed the arctic high to retreat just enough 2) stronger northern shortwave assists pulling it north. You win some and you lose most that's why we don't average 80" snow. I better not finish with 3.2" snow in a January that is seven degrees below normal.. yeah not happening . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, RedSky said: Two bad trends 1) the main shortwave slowed which allowed the arctic high to retreat just enough 2) stronger northern shortwave assists pulling it north. You win some and you lose most that's why we don't average 80" snow. . Pittsburgh special! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Pittsburgh special! Such a strange track, that I'm having a hard time believing the evolution of this system. I'd welcome the windshield wiper effect at this point. Do we end up with an inland Appalachian solution? Lots to reflect on with hard 180 model sways. Should be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Important lesson learned is never trust a hoochie mama they will break your heart 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z ECM end result delivers 5-10" in the N&W burbs to a foot in the Lehigh Valley. Big time first half thump then dryslot. I'll take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeNJWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Hit 8.6 overnight, which was shortly after midnight. I was hoping to beat last years low of 7.6, but thanks to a slight breeze that developed my temperature shot up and remained in the low-mid teens the rest of the night. Shortly before midnight I did hit 8.5, which is now the seasonal/yearly low. Snowcover is thin, but patchy. Not far south of here there is nothing left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM end result delivers 5-10" in the N&W burbs to a foot in the Lehigh Valley. Big time first half thump then dryslot. I'll take. I'll sign up for that. Reminds me of those 70's storms where we'd get a front end thump, then flip to rain. Anything that survived froze like a rock as the arctic air poured in on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Classic thump to mix/dryslot for i95 at the very least. Most likely outcome attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 37 minutes ago, dseagull said: Such a strange track, that I'm having a hard time believing the evolution of this system. I'd welcome the windshield wiper effect at this point. Do we end up with an inland Appalachian solution? Lots to reflect on with hard 180 model sways. Should be fun. CMC isn't as far west as the GFS but has the same near-Apps runner concept. Euro appears to be showing the same although looks further east than the others. Could be still seeing mid-range noise. I don't think this will settle down until we get a little closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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