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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

This one is gonna be painful to watch from the Lehigh Valley. Really hoping Friday's storm turns out better here.

Any location from mid Bucks/Mont counties W will be painful. I'm right at mid Mont county so I'm only expecting C-1". Who knows it could take a last minute jog NW? But damn that cut off line is sharp...

   

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I'm feeling weird on this one. A: I'm in Reading, so maybe we'll get some mood flakes up here, looking forward to that and not expecting any accumulation whatsoever. B: I have to report to work down across the river from Wilmington on Tuesday morning, so not at all sure how that will play out. Either way, I majorly cashed out last Feb so I'm hoping others at points south and west at least get some points on the board with this one. 

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1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

Yeah nothing here yet but 5-10 miles down the road receiving flakes. Should be soon. I remember past storms where I had HOURS of virga...drove me up a wall!

32F/cloudy

TOTALLY feel ya bud. Been there many times. Hope you guys south and west of me get some this time. Feelin' it.

image.png.85f8e32ef5fba0bb3bce29ffc9fc808a.png

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Solid discussion from Mt Holly…below is the majority of the near term portion.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 

The main change to the forecast overnight was an increase in QPF,
and by association, snowfall, for areas previously within and that
were just north of the previous Winter Storm Warning. The QPF
increase is almost unanimously supported by the last two cycles of
global and hi res guidance, and translates to an increase in snow
totals.

The most difficult portion of the forecast remains the northward
extent of precipitation shield. Even many of the recent model runs
which increased QPF across the south generally didn`t move the
precipitation shield north much. The latest blend does bring amounts
up somewhat in the I-95 corridor. However, there is likely to be an
exceptionally sharp northern cutoff to accumulating snow, probably
even sharper than the latest forecast, which as it is has a much
sharper than normal gradient. Even across, for example, Philadelphia
County, it would not be surprising to see a significant difference
in totals. And for northern portions of the area, it will simply be
a cloudy and cold day with perhaps some flurries.

Confidence in snowfall is much greater for southern areas. It is
clear now that a swath of heavy precipitation will overspread the
region. Extreme frontogenetic forcing is allowing precipitation to
expand in coverage and intensity to our southwest, and this will
only continue today. While precipitation is beginning as rain in
some places, temperatures are continuing to cool behind yesterday`s
front, and a flip to snow will occur. One possible exception is far
southeast Delaware, where rain or mix could hold on for longer.
Amounts were reduced a bit there. Otherwise, a large stripe of 8 to
12 inches of snow is now forecast, and can`t rule out some localized
amounts a little over 12 inches. Snowfall to our southwest has
generally been over-performing, and this trend could continue into
our area. Snowfall rates could easily exceed 1 inch per hour at
times this morning, perhaps 2 inches per hour. While snow ratios
overall will be less than 10:1, these rates will quickly overwhelm
the warm ground conditions left by recent near record warmth. These
snowfall rates could persist for several hours this morning and
early afternoon. Banding features are certainly possible within the
heavy snow shield, leading to some local variations. Eventually,
precipitation will end from west to east late this afternoon and
this evening as the area of low pressure moves out to sea.

 

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