Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, CoolHandMike said: Wife's out raking leaves in a t-shirt. And probably sweating... 58F/mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshb32689 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Okay, many models pointing to a decent+ event, yet not even a WWA. Is a little chaos on the horizon? Is NWS all-in on the NAM/ICON solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I noticed this only shows snowfall up to 7pm tomorrow... They are waiting it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said: Okay, many models pointing to a decent+ event, yet not even a WWA. Is a little chaos on the horizon? Is NWS all-in on the NAM/ICON solution? No science behind my reasoning, but I have noticed this approach from them in recent years, concerning a first possible significant snow. It seems like they understand how quickly information spreads and is overhyped at times. The first big forecast of the winter sets the tone for future general public confidence maybe? I know they don't want to get burned. Darned if they do, darned if they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said: Okay, many models pointing to a decent+ event, yet not even a WWA. Is a little chaos on the horizon? Is NWS all-in on the NAM/ICON solution? I think everyone has low confidence....by 18z they would have to make some sort of call and projected amounts. 58F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: I noticed this only shows snowfall up to 7pm tomorrow... They are waiting it seems. It will be long over by then. Those are totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Yeah, I’m thinking Kamu can start his snow pile tomorrow Lol, yeah I've been watching like most others in here. Could be interesting, could be right on the edge, could get nothing. South trend in the mesos today is a little concerning, but the 12z Euro was pretty nice, lol. It's usually fairly accurate within 24 hours, right? We shall see. As far as today's warmth goes I'm not worried, we've had a few of these over the years that work out fine, in 2014 there were a couple, and since then as well. Mt. Holly is in a tough spot with this one, I think their approach is good, like heads up and stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Bbasile and the South Jersey folks are looking pretty good for this one, good luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, KamuSnow said: Bbasile and the South Jersey folks are looking pretty good for this one, good luck! They are almost guaranteed a few inches w/a good chance at several inches...nice. Stuck at 58F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So do you go with a forecast of cloudy skies and lean NAM or 4-8" with euro, haha this hobby never easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NAM is a dusting in southern Monmouth, the difference between it and the GFS/ECM is the grand canyon this is nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, RedSky said: 18z NAM It’s much further NW…… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: It’s much further NW…… What are you smoking? Stuck at 58F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Mt. Holly just lofted the Warnings and Advisories - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 249 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-031100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.220103T0900Z-220103T2100Z/ New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Delaware-Philadelphia- Including the cities of Wilmington, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media, and Philadelphia 249 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ MPS Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 249 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-031100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T2200Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.220103T0900Z-220103T2100Z/ Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic- Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, and Atlantic City 249 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland and central and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: What are you smoking? Stuck at 58F Dude it is… 18Z snow to river. 12Z not even close to river WTF ARE YOU SMOKING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Dude it is… 18Z snow to river. 12Z not even close to river WTF ARE YOU SMOKING Hopefully we're all not smoking cirrus tomorrow! Eta - and I'll have some of whatever the GFS and Euro are smoking. Thanks! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I know nowcast time and all that, but the rgem crept nw thru the first part of the run. Looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Topped out at 62.8 in barnegat today. Temperatures fluctuated with wind direction all day, sometimes coming off the water, bringing in the fog. Down to 56.1 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Had a high of 60 so far today with changeable skies this afternoon (including occasional breaks of sun) after a low of 52. It's currently 59 with dp 54 and overcast. There are some spotty returns on the radar well ahead of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshb32689 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Had a high of 60 so far today with changeable skies this afternoon (including occasional breaks of sun) after a low of 52. It's currently 59 with dp 54 and overcast. There are some spotty returns on the radar well ahead of the cold front. Implications of any sort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 54 and high of 60 with light rain, checking State college temp 41 so temps are falling. Hope the Southern crowd makes out good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18Z 12k NAM went 8 miles SOUTHEAST over 12z I don't know what people are smoking lol yes 3k bumped 10 miles NW I didn't look at that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said: Implications of any sort? Gonna have to watch for dp depressions and how far south the subsidence from the north shears it away down here in Philly metro. It's still juicy out there at the moment. However we're not progged for anything until tomorrow morning's commute (I think peak) so unless the front speeds up, it'll be a watch and wait for the next 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Anybody going to say 18z GFS is better or are we all smoking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Isn't it a bit late in the game (less than 12 hours to onset) to be even looking at the globals? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Had a high of 60 so far today with changeable skies this afternoon (including occasional breaks of sun) after a low of 52. It's currently 59 with dp 54 and overcast. There are some spotty returns on the radar well ahead of the cold front. 8 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said: Implications of any sort? If not in the mid 40s by midnight or so I would be a tad concerned. Only a 1-3" event over 12hrs so the snow won't be rip roaring to drag down colder air...IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Anybody going to say 18z GFS is better or are we all smoking 18Z GFS went a bit SE I’m afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: If not in the mid 40s by midnight or so I would be a tad concerned. Only a 1-3" event over 12hrs so the snow won't be rip roaring to drag down colder air...IMHO. All models indicate mid 30s at midnight. Temps are not the issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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