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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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4 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said:

Okay, many models pointing to a decent+ event, yet not even a WWA. 
 

Is a little chaos on the horizon? Is NWS all-in on the NAM/ICON solution?

 

No science behind my reasoning, but I have noticed this approach from them in recent years, concerning a first possible significant snow.  It seems like they understand how quickly information spreads and is overhyped at times.  The first big forecast of the winter sets the tone for future general public confidence maybe?  I know they don't want to get burned.  Darned if they do, darned if they don't. 

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11 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said:

Okay, many models pointing to a decent+ event, yet not even a WWA. 
 

Is a little chaos on the horizon? Is NWS all-in on the NAM/ICON solution?

I think everyone has low confidence....by 18z they would have to make some sort of call and projected amounts.

58F

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Yeah, I’m thinking Kamu can start his snow pile tomorrow 

Lol, yeah I've been watching like most others in here. Could be interesting, could be right on the edge, could get nothing. South trend in the mesos today is a little concerning, but the 12z Euro was pretty nice, lol. It's usually fairly accurate within 24 hours, right? We shall see.

As far as today's warmth goes I'm not worried, we've had a few of these over the years that work out fine, in 2014 there were a couple, and since then as well.

Mt. Holly is in a tough spot with this one, I think their approach is good, like heads up and stay tuned.

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Quote

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
249 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-031100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.220103T0900Z-220103T2100Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Delaware-Philadelphia-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Pennsville, Glassboro,
Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media,
and Philadelphia
249 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, southeast
  Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MPS
Quote

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
249 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-031100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.220103T0900Z-220103T2100Z/
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-
Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach,
Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton,
Cape May Court House, Ocean City, and Atlantic City
249 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland
  and central and southern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

 

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Had a high of 60 so far today with changeable skies this afternoon (including occasional breaks of sun) after a low of 52.

It's currently 59 with dp 54 and overcast.  There are some spotty returns on the radar well ahead of the cold front.

Implications of any sort?

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2 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said:

Implications of any sort?

Gonna have to watch for dp depressions and how far south the subsidence from the north shears it away down here in Philly metro.  It's still juicy out there at the moment.  However we're not progged for anything until tomorrow morning's commute (I think peak) so unless the front speeds up, it'll be a watch and wait for the next 12 hours.

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11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Had a high of 60 so far today with changeable skies this afternoon (including occasional breaks of sun) after a low of 52.

It's currently 59 with dp 54 and overcast.  There are some spotty returns on the radar well ahead of the cold front.

 

8 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said:

Implications of any sort?

If not in the mid 40s by midnight or so I would be a tad concerned. Only a 1-3" event over 12hrs so the snow won't be rip roaring to drag down colder air...IMHO. 

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