Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 On 12/12/2021 at 7:34 PM, RedSky said: ^ East based NAO retreating arctic high and low in the lakes ECM long range not the Christmas miracle your looking for. Expand Maybe, but what else should we discuss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 On 12/12/2021 at 8:48 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Maybe, but what else should we discuss? Expand This! We got the leftovers that fizzled coming across here last night but OMG. As an obs, my high may end up being 47 and it's currently partly sunny and 46 with dp 22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 On 12/12/2021 at 7:34 PM, RedSky said: ^ East based NAO retreating arctic high and low in the lakes ECM long range not the Christmas miracle your looking for. Expand JMA on board as well...a bit faster tho. Over a week out, but a decent signal at this range for something to track. Few timing changes and an op bomb away from the board coming to life. Eta: seriously tho @RedSky, how can u write this off already? Or r u just trying to open discussion? Genuinely curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 Nothing like the day after a mid-December cold front passage, my temp struggled to reach a high of 50F And sign me up Ralph, I believe in Festivus miracles! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/12/2021 at 9:34 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA on board as well...a bit faster tho. Over a week out, but a decent signal at this range for something to track. Few timing changes and an op bomb away from the board coming to life. Eta: seriously tho @RedSky, how can u write this off already? Or r u just trying to open discussion? Genuinely curious. Expand Feels too rushed a reversal from the Pacific dominated pattern to get significant snow. If the blocking is real I would guess closer to New Years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 12:23 AM, RedSky said: Feels too rushed a reversal from the Pacific dominated pattern to get significant snow. If the blocking is real I would guess closer to New Years. Expand Yes that event on the 20-21 has some front end potential, but besides that I think it's a better setup for NNE. 50/50 doesn't seem to be in perfect position...I think we'll get a storm in 1-10th time frame as long as we don't get some insane -PNA on roids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 1:08 AM, Phil Connors said: with all the remote work available, why don't you snow weenies move to a location that gets substantial snow? Expand Because I’d rather live in hell than a place like Altoona. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 1:37 AM, The Iceman said: Because I’d rather live in hell than a place like Altoona. Expand Altoona is pretty depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 All major global models on board still for a trackable event centered around the 22nd. Doesn't look like a blockbuster but a small window is there to give parts of the region some snow. Originally posted back in mid Nov that around Jan 4 would be the first respectable event of the season. Perhaps things are being rushed to the pattern change/MJO phase transition? Keeping a close eye on it for now. CMC/JMA most aggressive followed by GFS and Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 11:58 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: All major global models on board still for a trackable event centered around the 22nd. Doesn't look like a blockbuster but a small window is there to give parts of the region some snow. Originally posted back in mid Nov that around Jan 4 would be the first respectable event of the season. Perhaps things are being rushed to the pattern change/MJO phase transition? Keeping a close eye on it for now. CMC/JMA most aggressive followed by GFS and Euro. Expand Euro stalls out in 7 and gfs moves along into 8. Something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Clustering of lows starting to show up on the GEFS with weakening GL low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 20-21st seems more like a N and W event imo. Looks like a classic rain along 95 with snow in upper bucks/lehigh. No high to keep the cold air in place along the coastal plain. But if the long range looks verify, late dec/early jan should be VERY fun. I know this is an OP look, but this is a great pattern even though we may be risking suppression. Obviously would like to see the ridge in the west pop a bit more but that is a strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO look. Has some ensemble support too but the ensembles still hold on to the -PNA which throws a wrench in things but would still be more white than wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 2:59 PM, The Iceman said: 20-21st seems more like a N and W event imo. Looks like a classic rain along 95 with snow in upper bucks/lehigh. No high to keep the cold air in place along the coastal plain. But if the long range looks verify, late dec/early jan should be VERY fun. I know this is an OP look, but this is a great pattern even though we may be risking suppression. Obviously would like to see the ridge in the west pop a bit more but that is a strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO look. Has some ensemble support too but the ensembles still hold on to the -PNA which throws a wrench in things but would still be more white than wet. Expand Seeing Alaska like that is great You would need the PNA to be negative if the NAO is also negative and AO also. You don't want suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 My opinion on the new and improved CMC after what it showed yesterday and how about the massive changes in the GFS from 6z to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 5:24 PM, RedSky said: My opinion on the new and improved CMC after what it showed yesterday and how about the massive changes in the GFS from 6z to 12z Expand Euro crapped the bed too and the JMA went from a bomb to a total NS disaster. Thus is the winter of La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 7:11 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro crapped the bed too and the JMA went from a bomb to a total NS disaster. Thus is the winter of La Nina. Expand Eps has a coastal signal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 7:28 PM, MJO812 said: Eps has a coastal signal Expand Not sure this will get it done. Oddly enough the EPS kill the GLL and focus (weakly) on the progressive coastal low where other guidance is trying to anchor a low in the GL region. Still some time for changes and the signal is still there but the window remains small and the signal remains weak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 GFS back to coastal. NW hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 10:43 PM, hazwoper said: GFS back to coastal. NW hit Expand 0z gfs follows suit. Improvements all around this run. N and W crushed. Nice storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Alot of this storm this run comes at night....except this panel as it tries to close off midday Tuesday the 21st. Boom: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 On 12/14/2021 at 4:31 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Alot of this storm this run comes at night....except this panel as it tries to close off midday Tuesday the 21st. Boom: Expand Philly also gets crushed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 On 12/14/2021 at 4:46 AM, MJO812 said: Philly also gets crushed Expand Meso banding...wouldnt bet my house on that verifying 144+ hours out let alone 24 hrs. Overall this is depicting a N and W or even central PA hit. Ocean temps off of NJ above normal. Coastal plain to fall line at least would have issues based on that. But alas, just another solution about a week out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 On 12/14/2021 at 5:04 AM, MJO812 said: Cmc Expand crazy gradient from PHL to LV!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 On 12/14/2021 at 6:21 AM, LVwxHistorian said: crazy gradient from PHL to LV!! Expand Possibly because of this - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 On 12/14/2021 at 11:49 AM, Hurricane Agnes said: Possibly because of this - Expand Easier to see the +2/3 SD here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 On 12/14/2021 at 12:06 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Easier to see the +2/3 SD here: Expand With departures like that, if some low did fly off the coast, it could become sub or extra-tropical, gaining a warm core, particularly if it gets cutoff from any front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Looks like the system for early next week fell victim to the Nina. Fell apart on the ens and streams stay separate, no phase...Southern wave slides out to sea. However, several of the EPS members are showing a Christmas Eve miracle setup. So there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 On 12/14/2021 at 7:00 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like the system for early next week fell victim to the Nina. Fell apart on the ens and streams stay separate, no phase...Southern wave slides out to sea. However, several of the EPS members are showing a Christmas Eve miracle setup. So there's that. Expand Sad we're looking 10+ days for a miracle setup.... Rain to some snow (flakes) Sat as cold air rushes in? 51F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 On 12/14/2021 at 7:59 PM, Birds~69 said: Sad we're looking 10+ days for a miracle setup.... Rain to some snow (flakes) Sat as cold air rushes in? 51F Expand Kicking the can sucks doesn't it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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