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December Discobs 2021


George BM
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9 minutes ago, mappy said:

I guess. Was surprised to see no mention of it tho

Longer range 12z HRRR had a couple hours of snow for the northern areas tomorrow morning before the column warms.  We’re heading to Deep Creek later today from my parents in NJ - hoping to see some (brief) frozen there tomorrow AM too…I think your area/Manchester/etc has a better shot than Deep Creek in this setup IMO.

 

ETA:  

image.thumb.jpeg.d5b8f703518a093ff58a5b5f0cb0cf0d.jpeg

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Basically all the meso models (notably except the NAMs) have a period of snow (as determined by model p-type) mid-late morning tomorrow for northern or central or northeast MD. Surface temps are mid-30s at best though, so any accumulation would be on grass and rate dependant.

eta…12z GFS as well.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Basically all the meso models (notably except the NAMs) have a period of snow (as determined by model p-type) mid-late morning tomorrow for northern or central or northeast MD. Surface temps are mid-30s at best though, so any accumulation would be on grass and rate dependant.

eta…12z GFS as well.

In a Torchcember, I will happily take any frozen precip, no matter how long it lasts. :weenie:

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5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Basically all the meso models (notably except the NAMs) have a period of snow (as determined by model p-type) mid-late morning tomorrow for northern or central or northeast MD. Surface temps are mid-30s at best though, so any accumulation would be on grass and rate dependant.

eta…12z GFS as well.

I don't believe it until I see it falling from the sky. Model guidance has to earn my trust back.

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Got a petty good bike ride in at greenbrier today (doesn’t look they they had much rain yesterday). Trying to strike while the iron’s hot before La Niña relaxes a bit and the mjo/pna trend towards a better trough placement for mid January/beyond (if’s and maybe’s).

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