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December Banter 2021


George BM
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For some reason, the comments are closed for this morning's Capital Weather Gang forecast post. Comments on the PM update looked like they meant to go on a story about football, so maybe the software is screwy.

 

But the other posts, about national weather, still have their comments, which are 99% the same political flamewars they've been getting for years.

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Made an estimated snowfall program in python yesterday. It takes in the ICON, GFS, EURO and CMC as inputs then weights each of them differently before factoring in how many days out the snowstorm is. For example a snowstorm that is 2 days out gets the mean of the models multiplied by .85. Thinking of adding in a likelihood percentage or something. Anyone have any ideas of what I could add?

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On 12/15/2021 at 1:00 PM, Stormfly said:

Widespread gusts 80+ some close to 100mph in that area now according to Ventusky maps.  Not sure if that's legit but holy cow!  You can't drive tractors in those conditions at all!

 

Here is the one thing I don't understand. The Bay Bridge gets high wind warnings and can shut down. Roads out can be shut down for snow and hurricanes. When high winds are predicted why is there not a shut down for semi's on highways?

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4 hours ago, Mrs.J said:

Here is the one thing I don't understand. The Bay Bridge gets high wind warnings and can shut down. Roads out can be shut down for snow and hurricanes. When high winds are predicted why is there not a shut down for semi's on highways?

Probably because those advisories rarely come to fruition here.  We don't have too many wide open areas devoid of wind shadows that would be vulnerable to mixdown events producing legit cat1+ gusts. Of course thunderstorms are the exception.
 

I still have the screen grabs from the CHART cam of the USR40 bridge over the Susquehanna river showing two semis on their side opposing directions just a few hundred feet apart.  That was the 03/02/18 event.  It is no joke driving a high profile vehicle even in lower grade events.  I remember being in a cabover sitting at at light near 50 and 301 when a thunderstorm was blowing through.  The winds were probably gusting to near severe threshold (58mph) and it felt like two 800 pound gorillas jumping in tandem on the back.  The truck was rocking and rolling and it felt like it was going to tip over!  I couldn't imagine going over a bridge and tipping at a 45 degree angle!  Going over the side (of the Bay Bridge) is about 185' to the water.  Not exactly a survivable ride!

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6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 The weenie in me says that it takes the models awhile to catch up to a good incoming pattern. And maybe they finally are.

:weenie:

Rule 3634:  It takes models a few cycles to see blocking and push the LPs under us.  

But….

Rule 3635:  It takes models a few more cycles to see the real blocking and push the LPs to Cuba.  

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