December 2021 General Discussion

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

For Chicago:

-The total number of 60 deg or warmer December days over 150 years has been 77

- the only December “Day” which has failed to produce a 60 at some point was dec 22^nd

 

So more often than not, we get a 60 degree day in December

There is a bit of stat manipulation going on there.  You left out the part below.  Most years do not produce 60+ in December.  But in years when 60+ does occur, it's not uncommon to get more than 1 day.  It's like the frequency of 100+ degree temps.  If you went based on number of days that has occurred since records began, then Chicago would have a 100 degree day about once every 2 years.  That does not happen in reality.  In years when 100+ occurs, it's not uncommon to get more than 1 day.

 

But I've found 35 of the past 149 full Decembers here in Chicago have produced a 60-deg temp--that's 23% of Decembers since 1871 which have recorded at least one 60-deg temp

[Chicago Storm]

Totally agree.  but even that is not THAT impressive is my point .   i am clearly on my own here though.  

tth is the preferred answer.


.

[hlcater]

ready 2 b torched

[Chicago Storm]

Let’s talk December 70°’s…

They’re very rare, only having happened three times on record. In addition, it has never been achieved after December 3rd.

71° - 12/2/1982
71° - 12/3/1970
70° - 12/3/2012


Note: There has never been a 70°+ temp in winter between 12/4 and 2/10.

[buckeye]

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit, similar climate to Chicago, is more than double average snowfall to date. And how many unusually early and late season snowfalls has this region seen in recent years? There is nothing pointing towards a late first measurable snow being the new norm for Chicago anymore than their recent Halloween snowstorm being a new norm.

Someone posted a map of percent of normal snowfall to date and the very small blob of highest above normal was on your house.     You are the exception sir and what is happening to Chicago is much more widespread.

Seriously wondering if ma nature lost her lap top and you found it. 

 

[Brian D]

Chicago's and Des Moines' extreme's for the second half of Dec (16-31). So, it would be unimpressive in mid Dec, considering the dates here. But it looks more impressive when you get into MN, and WI.

Chicago

69.0    1984-12-28    1984-12-28    
68.0    1875-12-31    1875-12-31   
67.0    1877-12-20    1877-12-20    
65.0    1982-12-28    1982-12-28    
64.0    1877-12-19    1877-12-19  
64.0    1982-12-25    1982-12-25   
64.0    1889-12-24    1889-12-24    
63.0    1984-12-29    1984-12-29    
62.0    1967-12-21    1967-12-21   
62.0    1982-12-23    1982-12-23    

Des Moines

69.0    1889-12-24    1889-12-24   
69.0    1984-12-28    1984-12-28    
64.0    1946-12-27    1946-12-27    
64.0    1933-12-22    1933-12-22   
64.0    1939-12-17    1939-12-17    
64.0    1976-12-18    1976-12-18    
63.0    1941-12-21    1941-12-21    
63.0    1965-12-30    1965-12-30   
63.0    2004-12-30    2004-12-30    
62.0    1939-12-16    1939-12-16    
 

 

[A-L-E-K]

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Let’s talk December 70°’s…

They’re very rare, only having happened three times on record. In addition, it has never been achieved after December 3rd.

71° - 12/2/1982
71° - 12/3/1970
70° - 12/3/2012


Note: There has never been a 70°+ temp in winter between 12/4 and 2/10.

[IWXwx]

Beavis in reverse.

[ChiTownSnow]

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There is a bit of stat manipulation going on there.  You left out the part below.  Most years do not produce 60+ in December.  But in years when 60+ does occur, it's not uncommon to get more than 1 day.  It's like the frequency of 100+ degree temps.  If you went based on number of days that has occurred since records began, then Chicago would have a 100 degree day about once every 2 years.  That does not happen in reality.  In years when 100+ occurs, it's not uncommon to get more than 1 day.

 

But I've found 35 of the past 149 full Decembers here in Chicago have produced a 60-deg temp--that's 23% of Decembers since 1871 which have recorded at least one 60-deg temp

the manipulation was unintentional, you and storm are correct. 

[Baum]

30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Let’s talk December 70°’s…

They’re very rare, only having happened three times on record. In addition, it has never been achieved after December 3rd.

71° - 12/2/1982
71° - 12/3/1970
70° - 12/3/2012


Note: There has never been a 70°+ temp in winter between 12/4 and 2/10.

going to be glorious. 

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Could argue DTW on a snow island of sorts this year.

Oh I agree. I was using it as an example.  It's a bit fluky that Chicago has not seen 0.1" of snow yet when place is much further south have, but I don't feel it's cause for worry.

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

the manipulation was unintentional, you and storm are correct. 

Here's a look at the high temps on those 77 December days that have reached 60+.  61% (47/77) of those days have been between 60-62.

60:  18 days

61:  13 days

62:  16 days

63:  7 days

64:  6 days

65:  5 days

66:  2 days

67:  3 days

68:  3 days

69:  1 day

70:  1 day

71:  2 days

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Someone posted a map of percent of normal snowfall to date and the very small blob of highest above normal was on your house.     You are the exception sir and what is happening to Chicago is much more widespread.

Seriously wondering if ma nature lost her lap top and you found it. 

 

Lol nah id give everyone snow...just me the most. Again just to clarify I was merely pointing out that the fact that Chicago has not seen ANY measurable snow is more flukey than anything. Locally, it's been an odd potion lately of snowy November's, blahh December's, and snowbelt February's

[ChiTownSnow]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a look at the high temps on those 77 December days that have reached 60+.  61% (47/77) of those days have been between 60-62.

60:  18 days

61:  13 days

62:  16 days

63:  7 days

64:  6 days

65:  5 days

66:  2 days

67:  3 days

68:  3 days

69:  1 day

70:  1 day

71:  2 days

yeah on the low 60's for most.    my current forecast (accuweather) has a high of 60 for 12/15 .  will probably get bumped a bit from that in the coming days.  i do also think we need to get the system on the 10th out of the way first,  to see how far north the models have these temps go.

[Chicago Storm]

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

Someone posted a map of percent of normal snowfall to date and the very small blob of highest above normal was on your house.     You are the exception sir and what is happening to Chicago is much more widespread.

Seriously wondering if ma nature lost her lap top and you found it. 

 

that was me about a day or so ago.

here's the updated one...

[Hoosier]

RC bringing the goods

 

Attention for the rest of the long term turns to the potential for
exceptional warmth by the middle of the work week. A summer-time
magnitude 500 mb ridge will amplify into the central and eastern
US. Ensemble mean 500 mb heights by Tuesday-Wednesday pushing or
even exceeding 580 DM, with near 590 closer to Gulf is top of the
charts daily max for the month of December at RAOB sites, along
with forecast 850 mb temps into the mid teens C if not higher very
rare for December at ILX and DVN. Sunday will see a nice recovery
in temps to mid to upper 40s in return dry and breezy southwesterly
flow. Monday will add a few-several degrees to highs as signal
points toward no stratus issues yet. Question on Tuesday is the
northward progress of a warm front arcing from deep low pressure
over the High Plains. It`s also quite common to get low stratus
in the warm frontal zone this time of year, so while still quite
mild, official forecast of 50-57F range Tuesday is nothing too crazy.

The low pressure deepening northward should surge the warm
front north Tuesday night, setting the table for exceptional
warmth next Wednesday (and probably Thursday as well). With dew
points into the lower-mid 50s, highs in the lower-mid 60s are a
good bet next Wednesday even if low clouds and sprinkles/drizzle.
Upside potential for temps (upper 60s-70F?) would be tied to
whether higher dew points on some of the models come to fruition.
Should see the exceptional warmth end later Thursday behind a cold
front passage. Little/no impactful weather is expected during the
stretch of unseasonable warmth. For reference, next Wednesday
(12/15), the record high for Chicago is 64 degrees and Rockford 58
degrees, both set in 1971. The current NBM forecast is already
above the daily record for RFD!

Castro

[A-L-E-K]

Best in the biz

[cyclone77]

Interesting tidbit @Hoosier will probably like.  All-time max in Dec at MLI is 71.  That was in early Dec '98, less than a month from the New Years blizzard.  

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Interesting tidbit @Hoosier will probably like.  All-time max in Dec at MLI is 71.  That was in early Dec '98, less than a month from the New Years blizzard.  

Probably something to that, amplification and all

[Malacka11]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Probably something to that, amplification and all

So what you're saying is...

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

that was me about a day or so ago.

here's the updated one...

Luckily our 0.3", and MLI/DVN both 0.2" kept us out of that gray area lol.

[chuckster2012]

55 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Luckily our 0.3", and MLI/DVN both 0.2" kept us out of that gray area lol.

Got 0.4" here last night in SE Indiana. .

[Frog Town]

A lot of foreshadowing going on here...

Hopefully the conversation here in about 3 weeks is one where I'll crack open a Christmas Ale and hunker down for a long night of tracking something special.  

[hlcater]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Probably something to that, amplification and all

I said that elsewhere. Anecdotally these big torches seem to almost always snap back to anomalous cold within a few weeks after ending and vice versa.

[cyclone77]

1 minute ago, hlcater said:

I said that elsewhere. Anecdotally these big torches seem to almost always snap back to anomalous cold within a few weeks after ending and vice versa.

70 in December, -30 in January.

[hlcater]

6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

70 in December, -30 in January.

There’s plenty of cold sitting in the Yukon and Alaska just waiting to go on a conus tour.

[BuffaloWeather]

A few videos from the 3 straight nights of snow here. The first 2 are from Bills game with the strong winds/squalls,  the last one is from today and features the highest snowfall rates. The end of video 2 is around 2" per as well.

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, hlcater said:

I said that elsewhere. Anecdotally these big torches seem to almost always snap back to anomalous cold within a few weeks after ending and vice versa.

Many La Nina winters are notorious for extreme roller coasters. 

[buckeye]

8 hours ago, hlcater said:

I said that elsewhere. Anecdotally these big torches seem to almost always snap back to anomalous cold within a few weeks after ending and vice versa.

1989 in reverse?     December 1989 started cold and only got colder and colder.  The peak hit about a week before Christmas where we got down to -18 here in CMH.   Then when New Years Day came it was like someone flipped a switch and winter disappeared and never really came back.

the rubber band theory.   Although there are exceptions, 11-12' 

[Baum]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

1989 in reverse?     December 1989 started cold and only got colder and colder.  The peak hit about a week before Christmas where we got down to -18 here in CMH.   Then when New Years Day came it was like someone flipped a switch and winter disappeared and never really came back.

the rubber band theory.   Although there are exceptions, 11-12' 

only those of us  that followed JB back in his hey day understand the "rubber band theory" and "and if the flip to cold and snow comes around the solstice it's here to stay" or "vodka cold" and my favorite, "there will be storms and rumors of storms." The last usually used in a pattern much like were in where the country is flooded with warm pacific air and there is no chance in hell of it snowing in most locales. And yet, he could argue the storm this weekend with wind and rain verified. All this for $14.95 a month to keep a snow weenies hopes alive. And people call him, dumb.