Hoosier Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: The shift towards positive tilt junk has been significant the last day or two. So unless that potential comes back, or Thursdays event up north in MN/WI/MI ends up further south, it might be about time to ring the futility bells. . I almost get more excited to post about futility than snow. . I'd much rather have a significant storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Some ice accretion in Crystal Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Snow slacked off there for a while, but is pretty steady now. A good 4-5" on the ground with plows out and about. Snow was fluffier this morning, but now it's finer and packing a bit more. Temps were in the mid 20's this morning and now around 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Yup, we're gonna roll into the torch empty handed 16-18th, you guys are really warm according to my modelling method. SE ridge with a strong front coming along S CA. 40-45 my way is good for the heat bill. Too bad it won't last 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up_north_MI Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Another decent snowfall for northern lower MI, the heaviest snow has been shifting south and our area has really been getting hit hard today. Probably 6” already down and still snowing hard. Looking at the radar it looks the the heaviest snow will be shifting north of us shortly though. With the system snow today and the lake effect expected tomorrow there should be some decent snow depths in the mitts north woods by mid week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Mod bands of snow have been consistent to my north (NW-NE). Brimson reported 8" midday, so many areas up there should be closing in on 12" right now. About 5-6" here in town with light snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 hours ago, McHenrySnow said: Some ice accretion in Crystal Lake. We've hit a low when we are posting barely ice pictures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 hours ago, Brian D said: 16-18th, you guys are really warm according to my modelling method. SE ridge with a strong front coming along S CA. 40-45 my way is good for the heat bill. Too bad it won't last Assuming it verifies, i'm ok with 2 days of 50s with cold shots on both sides. I'd rather have that than the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: We've hit a low when we are posting barely ice pictures seems like typical early December weather. The continued gradual step down into winter continues. Next few days we may not break freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 some of you are in denial.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 seems like typical early December weather. The continued gradual step down into winter continues. Next few days we may not break freezing.does this mean what happens after tuesday is the gradual step up towards spring?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: some of you are in denial. . Some of us are looking at what's happening now and not constantly 10 days out. Right now seems pretty normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: does this mean what happens after tuesday is the gradual step up towards spring? . I think it means we're taking the calendar and time of year into consideration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 19 hours ago, weatherbo said: Lake shadow squashes almost everything here. Occasional ring of fire delivers. Welcome back!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I get why it's probably frustrating for the learned individuals among us to listen to the rest of us circle jerking over shit that never ends up happening, but I gotta be honest: even if it's the realistic approach, I just can't bring myself to take the constant torch/WAD/doomsday talk to heart. I'm sure it used to be different, but as long as I've been on this forum, the shit that isn't supposed to deliver stands just as much of a chance at working out as the real potentials. Can't tell you how many times over the last few weeks alone people have been vaguely hyping up an upcoming pattern change as the potential engine behind a real storm, only for nothing to happen. The odds are always 90% that nothing will happen, but if we actually acted like that was the case, this forum would be deader than our chances of a white Christmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I get why it's probably frustrating for the learned individuals among us to listen to the rest of us circle jerking over shit that never ends up happening, but I gotta be honest: even if it's the realistic approach, I just can't bring myself to take the constant torch/WAD/doomsday talk to heart. I'm sure it used to be different, but as long as I've been on this forum, the shit that isn't supposed to deliver stands just as much of a chance at working out as the real potentials. Can't tell you how many times over the last few weeks alone people have been vaguely hyping up an upcoming pattern change as the potential engine behind a real storm, only for nothing to happen. The odds are always 90% that nothing will happen, but if we actually acted like that was the case, this forum would be deader than our chances of a white Christmas. Agreed I've been following these forums for 4 or 5 years now and when I first started following, everybody was tracking the big dogs and hyping each model run as if it was God. Then it switched to not trusting the models at all, and now its kind of all over the place.. just an observation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Can't tell you how many times over the last few weeks alone people have been vaguely hyping up an upcoming pattern change as the potential engine behind a real storm, only for nothing to happen.anyone that has done that probably should stop talking about the long term, because clearly they don’t know what they’re talking about.we have been in about three or so different patterns across november and now into december, and none have them ever looked favorable for anywhere other than MN/WI/MI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Agreed I've been following these forums for 4 or 5 years now and when I first started following, everybody was tracking the big dogs and hyping each model run as if it was God. Then it switched to not trusting the models at all, and now its kind of all over the place.. just an observationif you’ve been following for that long, you know the increased model struggles the past few years, as well as the difficulty to get into and/or hold a favorable pattern in the winter.and in the case of the current situation, the pattern is not supportive of anything more than a thread the needle situation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: if you’ve been following for that long, you know the increased model struggles the past few years, as well as the difficulty to get into and/or hold a favorable pattern in the winter. and in the case of the current situation, the pattern is not supportive of anything more than a thread the needle situation. . I'm not arguing against any of that. I'm saying what we have actually seen thus far is not that abnormal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: anyone that has done that probably should stop talking about the long term, because clearly they don’t know what they’re talking about. we have been in about three or so different patterns across november and now into december, and none have them ever looked favorable for anywhere other than MN/WI/MI. . That's my bad, I actually meant years, not weeks. Oopsies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: I'm not arguing against any of that. I'm saying what we have actually seen thus far is not that abnormal If the 240 verifies then I agree that would suck. But it hasn't yet, and what we've seen thus far isn't that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 It is obvious that most of us are going to have to depend on what happens in the few days before Christmas to have a shot at a white Christmas. Not going to be able to lay snow down well in advance and have it survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 I'm not arguing against any of that. I'm saying what we have actually seen thus far is not that abnormaltemperature wise, you’re correct in that it hasn’t been too abnormal as of yet. november had a -1.0° temperature departure. december obviously has started mild, with a +9.4° departure over the first 5 days. that will get kicked down over the next few days, before going back up once again. so we’ll see how that goes with time. overall so far it has been cooler east and warmer west since early november.what is abnormal is snowfall and precipitation. things have been fairly dry and snow-less across a large portion of the region thus far since early november.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Snow is winding down now. 12-15"+ north of me with about 6-8" here in town and towards Duluth. There may be another inch or two through the night, and the winds are supposed to pick up out of the NW and get a little gusty. Possible 45 mph into tomorrow. If that happens, then this will all drift around, but we'll see if they get that strong. Oh, and the temps will be dropping like a rock through the day tomorrow. Should be 0 or below by sunset. Hurray, NOT! LOL 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Dense fog with calm winds here. Strong winds are on the way for later this evening/overnight so this fog won't last much longer. Finished with 0.01" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up_north_MI Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 10” with system snow winding down, lake effect tomorrow should put totals over a foot in many areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 DTW magnet on duty again tomorrow evening. 3k NAM with a streamer right thru S Wayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 We've got a December tornado warning on the mid-Mississippi River near Cape Girardeau, MO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Monday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 8. Wind chill values between -5 and zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between zero and 10. West wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Hurry up, torch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Monday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 8. Wind chill values between -5 and zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between zero and 10. West wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Hurry up, torch... 62° down here in Jennings Co. Thunderstorms.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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