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December 2021 General Discussion


Hoosier
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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:


The shift towards positive tilt junk has been significant the last day or two.

So unless that potential comes back, or Thursdays event up north in MN/WI/MI ends up further south, it might be about time to ring the futility bells.


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I almost get more excited to post about futility than snow.  :frostymelt:. I'd much rather have a significant storm though.

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Another decent snowfall for northern lower MI, the heaviest snow has been shifting south and our area has really been getting hit hard today. Probably 6” already down and still snowing hard. Looking at the radar it looks the the heaviest snow will be shifting north of us shortly though. With the system snow today and the lake effect expected tomorrow there should be some decent snow depths in the mitts north woods by mid week.

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4 hours ago, Brian D said:

16-18th, you guys are really warm according to my modelling method. SE ridge with a strong front coming along S CA. 40-45 my way is good for the heat bill. Too bad it won't last :) 

Assuming it verifies, i'm ok with 2 days of 50s with cold shots on both sides.  I'd rather have that than the opposite

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I get why it's probably frustrating for the learned individuals among us to listen to the rest of us circle jerking over shit that never ends up happening, but I gotta be honest: even if it's the realistic approach, I just can't bring myself to take the constant torch/WAD/doomsday talk to heart. I'm sure it used to be different, but as long as I've been on this forum, the shit that isn't supposed to deliver stands just as much of a chance at working out as the real potentials. Can't tell you how many times over the last few weeks alone people have been vaguely hyping up an upcoming pattern change as the potential engine behind a real storm, only for nothing to happen. The odds are always 90% that nothing will happen, but if we actually acted like that was the case, this forum would be deader than our chances of a white Christmas. 

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5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I get why it's probably frustrating for the learned individuals among us to listen to the rest of us circle jerking over shit that never ends up happening, but I gotta be honest: even if it's the realistic approach, I just can't bring myself to take the constant torch/WAD/doomsday talk to heart. I'm sure it used to be different, but as long as I've been on this forum, the shit that isn't supposed to deliver stands just as much of a chance at working out as the real potentials. Can't tell you how many times over the last few weeks alone people have been vaguely hyping up an upcoming pattern change as the potential engine behind a real storm, only for nothing to happen. The odds are always 90% that nothing will happen, but if we actually acted like that was the case, this forum would be deader than our chances of a white Christmas. 

Agreed I've been following these forums for 4 or 5 years now and when I first started following, everybody was tracking the big dogs and hyping each model run as if it was God.  Then it switched to not trusting the models at all, and now its kind of all over the place..  just an observation

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Can't tell you how many times over the last few weeks alone people have been vaguely hyping up an upcoming pattern change as the potential engine behind a real storm, only for nothing to happen.

anyone that has done that probably should stop talking about the long term, because clearly they don’t know what they’re talking about.

we have been in about three or so different patterns across november and now into december, and none have them ever looked favorable for anywhere other than MN/WI/MI.


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Agreed I've been following these forums for 4 or 5 years now and when I first started following, everybody was tracking the big dogs and hyping each model run as if it was God.  Then it switched to not trusting the models at all, and now its kind of all over the place..  just an observation

if you’ve been following for that long, you know the increased model struggles the past few years, as well as the difficulty to get into and/or hold a favorable pattern in the winter.

and in the case of the current situation, the pattern is not supportive of anything more than a thread the needle situation.


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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


if you’ve been following for that long, you know the increased model struggles the past few years, as well as the difficulty to get into and/or hold a favorable pattern in the winter.

and in the case of the current situation, the pattern is not supportive of anything more than a thread the needle situation.


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I'm not arguing against any of that.  I'm saying what we have actually seen thus far is not that abnormal

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


anyone that has done that probably should stop talking about the long term, because clearly they don’t know what they’re talking about.

we have been in about three or so different patterns across november and now into december, and none have them ever looked favorable for anywhere other than MN/WI/MI.


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That's my bad, I actually meant years, not weeks. Oopsies.

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I'm not arguing against any of that.  I'm saying what we have actually seen thus far is not that abnormal

temperature wise, you’re correct in that it hasn’t been too abnormal as of yet. november had a -1.0° temperature departure. december obviously has started mild, with a +9.4° departure over the first 5 days. that will get kicked down over the next few days, before going back up once again. so we’ll see how that goes with time. overall so far it has been cooler east and warmer west since early november.

80a3546eee1e93f8dc4dbc7f0b06bb91.jpg


what is abnormal is snowfall and precipitation. things have been fairly dry and snow-less across a large portion of the region thus far since early november.

549c3a9f255ce32ae8c8f05c16715e93.jpg
b9fa12e4d57df953c4d8944a04abe736.jpg


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Snow is winding down now. 12-15"+ north of me with about 6-8" here in town and towards Duluth. There may be another inch or two through the night, and the winds are supposed to pick up out of the NW and get a little gusty. Possible 45 mph into tomorrow. If that happens, then this will all drift around, but we'll see if they get that strong. Oh, and the temps will be dropping like a rock through the day tomorrow. Should be 0 or below by sunset. Hurray, NOT! LOL

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28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:
Monday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 8. Wind chill values between -5 and zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between zero and 10. West wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
 
Hurry up, torch... :axe:

62° down here in Jennings Co. Thunderstorms..

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