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December 2021 General Discussion


Hoosier
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2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

north.jpg?w=632

For all the  :weenie: out there.....which is all of us.  Accuweather giving part of the sub some love.   Thinking a lot of Colorado lows are in our future, with a tight gradient.  Kind of seems like a thread the needle White Christmas, doesn't it??

Embarrassing that someone would even make that.

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0z GFS has Michigan divided in terms of Precip type, the Upper Peninsula will get snow, while the Lower Peninsula mostly gets rain, Northern Wisconsin, & most of Minnesota will also get the snow as well by Sunday.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

The backside of the system will bring another round of snow & colder Temperatures to the area Next Week, some areas will never get above freezing after Tomorrow until late next week for most areas

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_19.png

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10 hours ago, Baum said:

get the thread started:

TUESDAY  
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS  
IN THE MID 30S.

looks like an early December forecast to me:

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY.  
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 

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^

delving in deeper:

"
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLAIL ABOUT RUN TO RUN WITH   
HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL  
RUNS ARE WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE THAN MANY OF  
THE RUNS THE PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. OVER THE PAST WEEK,
MEDIUM RANGE  
MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED A LOWER THAN AVERAGE SKILL LEVEL BEYOND 120  
HOURS IN OVER OUR REGION AND OPTED TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO NBM  
GUIDANCE WHICH ADVERTISES MAINLY SNOW CHANGES IN THE TUE/WED TIME  
FRAME. WOULD FULLY EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE  
OUTPUT WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM, SO THE POTENTIAL OUTCOME OF  
OUR WEATHER PROBABLY RUNS THE GAMUT FROM A SNOWSTORM TO RAIN TO  
NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE. KEY MESSAGE AT THIS POINT  
SHOULD BE THE FORECAST TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WARRANTS  
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE CAN BEGIN TO HONE IN ON  
A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. "

only forecaster  IZZI would raise to full on pops 5 days out on a model suite that says "tone it down". Daycrew will adjust accordingly if models remain status quo. Was getting a tad excited. Reality restored.

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18 hours ago, Frog Town said:

north.jpg?w=632

For all the  :weenie: out there.....which is all of us.  Accuweather giving part of the sub some love.   Thinking a lot of Colorado lows are in our future, with a tight gradient.  Kind of seems like a thread the needle White Christmas, doesn't it??

Damn, I didn't know my chances could get any lower to be honest here...

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3 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I don't have access to the Euro sans the step up at 850, which looks interesting for much of our sub next week.  Can anyone add some insight to this??

GFS and euro both have something around the 10th but but models have been showing a decent storm in this range for a couple weeks to only have them vanish.

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Once we get past Dec 4, this will become the year with the latest first measurable snow for Chicago since 2012.  Had to wait until 12/20 of that year for the first measurable snow.  Would appear that we won't have to wait that long this time.

I wouldn’t go there yet.


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