December 2021 General Discussion

[Powerball]

Parts of MN upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning with tonight's system.

 

[cyclone77]

The high of 75 at MLI beat the old record of 57 by 18 degrees lol.  Also, they are still 63 at midnight, just as CAA has commenced, but still good enough for another record high beating 60 degrees from 1939.  

[cyclone77]

Getting 60mph winds here now, highest winds of the event.  Visibility is actually down to a few miles from all the dust blowing in from out west.  

[A-L-E-K]

Swear it smells like wildfire outside

[Up_north_MI]

10 hours ago, Stebo said:

That is too much snow

I agree Stebo, that’s to much. I feel there’s a point where that much snow would almost become a second job just keeping up with dealing with it like keeping a driveway passable, keeping weight off structures, driving in it and whatever else comes along with that amount of snow. Give me cold and snow mid December to mid March with roughly 100 inches of snow and cold enough air for some ice on inland lakes and I’m happy. 

[Chicago Storm]

Swear it smells like wildfire outside

Definitely did.

Looks like some smoke from CO/KS/OK/TX wildfires made it up here.


.

[A-L-E-K]

had a very distinct not a backyard fire smell

[Frog Town]

Definitely looking like things will turn around for the better as the Holidays approach.  A lot of ensemble support that doesn't seem to be fading as we approach.  

[cyclone77]

Much of the guidance is developing some wet snow over northern IL tomorrow night.  Depending on which model you look at a dusting to perhaps an inch may fall which would finally get quite a few locations on the board for their first measurable snowfall of the season.

[A-L-E-K]

shit tier event gonna ruin our big dog record chance by like a day

[cyclone77]

19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

shit tier event gonna ruin our big dog record chance by like a day

FWIW the HRRR and 3km NAM both look unimpressed, not developing much of anything.  RGEM/GFS/Euro say otherwise.  Gonna have to see which camp blinks first lol.

[Baum]

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

FWIW the HRRR and 3km NAM both look unimpressed, not developing much of anything.  RGEM/GFS/Euro say otherwise.  Gonna have to see which camp blinks first lol.

start the thread.

[Chicago Storm]

FWIW the HRRR and 3km NAM both look unimpressed, not developing much of anything.  RGEM/GFS/Euro say otherwise.  Gonna have to see which camp blinks first lol.

Definitely wouldn’t follow any camp that includes the HRRR, that’s for sure, whether it’s shows snow or not.

It has been especially bad in its long range the past several events.

[hlcater]

some sort of fire in muscatine.

[A-L-E-K]

futility watch ramping up now

[Hoosier]

Hold on tight.  This is gonna be a close one.

[Brian D]

Thunderstorms and heavy rain last night ate away my snowpack, (0.85" in town, and 0.94" at airport) then the winds kicked up after midnight, but not to high wind levels that they forecast. About 40-45 mph at most here. Snowing this morning that looks to be ending right now with about an inch on the ground. Start over I guess. Temps dropped down quickly from the low 40's at around 4 a.m. to upper teens at noon. Now that we've had a Spring break, let the real Dec continue.

[cyclone77]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hold on tight.  This is gonna be a close one.

Looks like southeast Michigan gets the most. 

[Cary67]

29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

futility watch ramping up now

Looks good for DTW

[Hoosier]

This is all that's left for latest measurable snows in Chicago:

12/20/2012

12/16/1965

Second place will be displaced in a matter of hours.

[Cary67]

27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is all that's left for latest measurable snows in Chicago:

12/20/2012

12/16/1965

Second place will be displaced in a matter of hours.

Let's shatter it and make it to MLK day

[A-L-E-K]

should pad it out nicely if we can escape the 18th

[NEOH]

Larry Cosgrove was great last season and so far this "winter". His latest... 

What might turn out to be a dominant force for North America is the emergence of a Greenland blocking ridge next week. After some thunderstorm threats the next 72 hours from Texas and Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley and Mid-South, emphasis will shift to the western third of the continent, where a large 500MB vortex will eject a strong shortwave that looks top track close to 40 N Latitude by Christmas Day. Unlike the previous systems this month, this new feature will feature colder air and an extension of snow cover, possible through cities like Chicago IL, Cleveland OH and Boston MA.

 

[Baum]

^ A forecast of colder and snowier. Ballsy.

[NEOH]

48 minutes ago, Baum said:

^ A forecast of colder and snowier. Ballsy.

Quite a contrast to anything we've seen to date. Will be interesting to follow this call. 

[Frog Town]

57 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Larry Cosgrove was great last season and so far this "winter". His latest... 

What might turn out to be a dominant force for North America is the emergence of a Greenland blocking ridge next week. After some thunderstorm threats the next 72 hours from Texas and Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley and Mid-South, emphasis will shift to the western third of the continent, where a large 500MB vortex will eject a strong shortwave that looks top track close to 40 N Latitude by Christmas Day. Unlike the previous systems this month, this new feature will feature colder air and an extension of snow cover, possible through cities like Chicago IL, Cleveland OH and Boston MA.

 

I like his calm and collected approach.  JB and others are just losing their minds with all the other bullshit that's going on.  Politics is poison these days.  

[ILSNOW]

18z GFS bringing the goods for saturday!!!!

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

18z GFS bringing the goods for saturday!!!!

See, this is the time to root against it.  It ruins the record and anything that falls won't make it until Christmas anyway.

[madwx]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Larry Cosgrove was great last season and so far this "winter". His latest... 

What might turn out to be a dominant force for North America is the emergence of a Greenland blocking ridge next week. After some thunderstorm threats the next 72 hours from Texas and Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley and Mid-South, emphasis will shift to the western third of the continent, where a large 500MB vortex will eject a strong shortwave that looks top track close to 40 N Latitude by Christmas Day. Unlike the previous systems this month, this new feature will feature colder air and an extension of snow cover, possible through cities like Chicago IL, Cleveland OH and Boston MA.

 

in fact, Larry Cosgrove was pretty awful last winter and spring.  He consistently called for a frigid March and a super torch April and May in the midwest and NE and that turned out horribly

[cyclone77]

NAMs and HRRR still pretty dry for tomorrow night over northern IL.  Still over 24hrs out, but you'd think the models would start to align a little more in the next run or two.