December 2021 General Discussion

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

But even worse.  

Probably won't get bailed out like last year with a 4-5 week window in Jan to mid Feb that yielded 40"+

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Probably won't get bailed out like last year with a 4-5 week window in Jan to mid Feb that yielded 40"+

It certainly isn't something you want to rely on.  

[Baum]

8 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Probably won't get bailed out like last year with a 4-5 week window in Jan to mid Feb that yielded 40"+

probably just get a 15 inch snow event at some point  and end the season under 30". 

[Frog Town]

Look at it like this.  In order for most of us here to experience the Winters of Yore, we may have had to participate in World War 2??  Having the winters get warmer and more frustrating may be a small price to pay, if you know what I mean.  This is how I cope.  

[Baum]

15 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Look at it like this.  In order for most of us here to experience the Winters of Yore, we may have had to participate in World War 2??  Having the winters get warmer and more frustrating may be a small price to pay, if you know what I mean.  This is how I cope.  

While I'm old enough to remember Chicago's 1967 blizzard(age 5) and the great winters of the late '70's(high school) I would say the Ground Hog day blizzard and the winter of 2014 are on par or may top them. The wind and combined snow lightning and thunder of GHD storm are the most extreme winter event I observed. And those winters of the late '70's were not 150 days of bitter cold/snow. They came early but were pretty much gone by mid February. 

[cyclone77]

DVN has 71 in the point for Wed which would tie the all time high for December at MLI.  Dewpoints look like they'll be AOA 60 degrees as well, which makes reaching that temp even more impressive.  

Wednesday evening is looking pretty wild with whipping south winds possibly up to 50 mph with temps/dews holding in the mid-upper 60s until at least midnight.  Out in central/western Iowa the Euro is advertising 60-65 mph gradient winds early to mid evening behind the cold front.  

[Hoosier]

Record high for Chicago on the 16th is only 60.  That will be broken easily and right after midnight.

[Malacka11]

5 hours ago, Baum said:

probably just get a 15 inch snow event at some point  and end the season under 30". 

Honestly I'd almost be fine with that. Better than the alternative

[Stevo6899]

20 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Honestly I'd almost be fine with that. Better than the alternative

I agree wholeheartedly. btw is anyone else getting messages on here like this? lolol. I guess this scammer is right assuming its a sausagefest on here.

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I agree wholeheartedly. btw is anyone else getting messages on here like this? lolol. I guess this scammer is right assuming its a sausagefest on here.

Got it 3 times in like 15 minutes.  Twice on a big group message like that and one individual.  

[Chicago Storm]

keeping my inbox full ftw.


.

[Hoosier]

lol

[Chicago Storm]

Stats time...

Days With 60+ High Temp In December:

9 - 1982
5 - 1998

4 - 1946

4 - 1877

3 - 1984

3 - 1975

3 - 1962

3 - 1951

3 - 1879

1 - 2021

Days With 65+ High Temp In December:
3 - 1975
2 - 1998
2 - 1982
2 - 1970
1 - 2017
1 - 2012
1 - 2001
1 - 1984
1 - 1980
1 - 1951
1 - 1877
1 - 1875

Days With 70+ High Temp In December:
1 - 2012
1 - 1982
1 - 1970

Warmest December Days:
71 - 12/2/1982
71 - 12/3/1970
70 - 12/3/2012
69 - 12/28/1984
68 - 12/5/2001
68 - 12/1/1970
68 - 12/31/1875
67 - 12/3/1998
67 - 12/13/1975
67 - 12/20/1877

Warmest Met Winter Days:
75 - 2/27/1976
72 - 2/25/2000
71 - 12/2/1982
71 - 12/3/1970
70 - 2/20/2017
70 - 2/18/2017
70 - 12/3/2012
70 - 2/11/1999
69 - 2/19/2017
69 - 12/28/1984
69 - 2/15/1954
68 - 2/22/2017
68 - 12/5/2001
68 - 12/1/1970
68 - 2/22/1922
68 - 12/31/1875

[Chicago Storm]

Chicago daily records...

12/15
Record High: 64 - 1971
Record High Min: 44 - 1928

12/16
Record High: 60 - 1984

[andyhb]

Definitely will be some severe weather with that thing on Wednesday. Too much anomalous warmth/moisture + a very powerful trough for there not to be.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Stats time...

Days With 60+ High Temp In December:
5 - 1998
4 - 1946
4 - 1877
3 - 1984
3 - 1975
3 - 1962
3 - 1951

3 - 1879

1 - 2021

Days With 65+ High Temp In December:
3 - 1975
2 - 1998
2 - 1982
2 - 1970
1 - 2017
1 - 2012
1 - 2001
1 - 1984
1 - 1980
1 - 1951
1 - 1877
1 - 1875

Days With 70+ High Temp In December:
1 - 2012
1 - 1982
1 - 1970

Warmest December Days:
71 - 12/2/1982
71 - 12/3/1970
70 - 12/3/2012
69 - 12/28/1984
68 - 12/5/2001
68 - 12/1/1970
68 - 12/31/1875
67 - 12/3/1998
67 - 12/13/1975
67 - 12/20/1877

Warmest Met Winter Days:
75 - 2/27/1976
72 - 2/25/2000
71 - 12/2/1982
71 - 12/3/1970
70 - 2/20/2017
70 - 2/18/2017
70 - 12/3/2012
70 - 2/11/1999
69 - 2/19/2017
69 - 12/28/1984
69 - 2/15/1954
68 - 2/22/2017
68 - 12/5/2001
68 - 12/1/1970
68 - 2/22/1922
68 - 12/31/1875

You did that funny.  Like, every year that is on the 65+ list should also be on the 60+ list, but it's not.

[Chicago Storm]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You did that funny.  Like, every year that is on the 65+ list should also be on the 60+ list, but it's not.

They are. However, the list of 60+ days is much longer, thus only the top of the count was included. Then 2021 was added in at the bottom of that list just to show we already chalked up 1 60+ day already this month.

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

They are. However, the list of 60+ days is much longer, thus only the top of the count was included. Then 2021 was added in at the bottom of that list just to show we already chalked up 1 60+ day already this month.

I see.  1982 had 9 days of 60+ though so that should be on that list.  Don't mean to be nitpicky.  

[Stevo6899]

56 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Got it 3 times in like 15 minutes.  Twice on a big group message like that and one individual.  

Lolol. They gangin up on the moderator/boss.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Lolol. They gangin up on the moderator/boss.

*former.  I'm still the boss around here though.  j/k

[Chicago Storm]

I see.  1982 had 9 days of 60+ though so that should be on that list.  Don't mean to be nitpicky.  

went back to check the lists, and that indeed was the lone omission and error.




.

[Chicago Storm]

Definitely will be some severe weather with that thing on Wednesday. Too much anomalous warmth/moisture + a very powerful trough for there not to be.

Definitely, across E NE/MN/IA.


.

[cyclone77]

Apparently Broyles not too impressed with Wed lol.

[Chinook]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN has 71 in the point for Wed which would tie the all time high for December at MLI.  Dewpoints look like they'll be AOA 60 degrees as well, which makes reaching that temp even more impressive.  

Wednesday evening is looking pretty wild with whipping south winds possibly up to 50 mph with temps/dews holding in the mid-upper 60s until at least midnight.  Out in central/western Iowa the Euro is advertising 60-65 mph gradient winds early to mid evening behind the cold front.  

Mid-Iowa might be the warmest relative to average. Here is some discussion from DMX

Quote

Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021

Daily record high temperatures remain in the forecast for
Wednesday, 12/15. In addition, ALL TIME monthly record highs for
December are also possible:

Daily Records - Wednesday, December 15th

Des Moines 59F (last in 2002)
Waterloo 54F (1923)
Mason City 53F (1939)
Ottumwa 59F (last in 2002)
Lamoni 60F (2002)

Monthly Record Highs for December:

Des Moines 69F (last in 2017)
Waterloo 67F (2012)
Mason City 67F (1998)
Ottumwa 71F (last in 2012)

 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN has 71 in the point for Wed which would tie the all time high for December at MLI.  Dewpoints look like they'll be AOA 60 degrees as well, which makes reaching that temp even more impressive.  

Wednesday evening is looking pretty wild with whipping south winds possibly up to 50 mph with temps/dews holding in the mid-upper 60s until at least midnight.  Out in central/western Iowa the Euro is advertising 60-65 mph gradient winds early to mid evening behind the cold front.  

There is about 50 kts down as low as 950 mb on Wednesday evening with not much stability in the low levels.  Winds should be rocking pretty good.

[Natester]

GFS for several runs has consistently showed low end hurricane force wind gusts in a narrow band that moves east.  The other models don't show gusts that high.  Have to wait until it comes into range of the NAM 3k tomorrow morning and the HRRR tomorrow evening.  Wouldn't be surprised to see 11/10/1998 gusts but for a much shorter duration.

 

 

[Frog Town]

Finally!!

Grand Rapids goes all in:

- Winter makes a comeback

As I wrote about yesterday the MJO goes into phase 7 later this
week. That will force it to get colder and stay colder late this
week and more so next week. While the models are not forecasting
much snow, it has been my experience that when we stay below
freezing for more than a week, it finds a way to snow. So I am
thinking it will snow the week leading to Christmas. If nothing
less a lot of lake effect. The ensemble means for the Canadian,
GFS and ECMWF all show highs below freezing from the 20th through
the 28th. Winter weather will come back.

[cyclone77]

The Euro is forecasting craziness behind the front out in southwestern Iowa later Wednesday afternoon.  Dews crash from near 60 down to near 10 degrees, with 60-70mph gradient winds.  Gonna be a wild late afternoon/early evening from Omaha to Des Moines.

[Hoosier]

The 00z GFS doesn't have any snow in Chicago until the 20th.  That would tie the record for latest measurable.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The Euro is forecasting craziness behind the front out in southwestern Iowa later Wednesday afternoon.  Dews crash from near 60 down to near 10 degrees, with 60-70mph gradient winds.  Gonna be a wild late afternoon/early evening from Omaha to Des Moines.

Yeah it looks pretty eventful out that way.  Some severe threat too.