December 2021 General Discussion

[Brian D]

Light snow this morning has added another 2" with more on the way. Maybe another inch or 2 on tap.

[DaveNay]

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

... winter disappeared and never really came back.

Except for the Valentine's Day ice storm.

[donsutherland1]

An area of light snow missed Chicago today. As a result, Chicago has joined seven prior years that saw no measurable snowfall through December 9. Those winters wound up with below to much below normal seasonal snowfall.

 

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An area of light snow missed Chicago today. As a result, Chicago has joined seven prior years that saw no measurable snowfall through December 9. Those winters wound up with below to much below normal seasonal snowfall.

 

The Sad Seven will become the Futile Five soon.  

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The Sad Seven will become the Futile Five soon.  

Yes. That’s where things appear headed.

[RogueWaves]

Chicago's kinda odd. Wasn't just maybe 2016 when it refused to snow. There was like this dearth snow-less zone around that region.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Chicago's kinda odd. Wasn't just maybe 2016 when it refused to snow. There was like this dearth snow-less zone around that region.

I believe it was a long sub 1" streak that got started in late Dec and went into March 2017.  

[Cary67]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

An area of light snow missed Chicago today. As a result, Chicago has joined seven prior years that saw no measurable snowfall through December 9. Those winters wound up with below to much below normal seasonal snowfall.

 

ORD will get some snow by Jan 15th

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

ORD will get some snow by Jan 15th

Hopefully, far sooner than that.

[A-L-E-K]

12z has it all, tors, torch and snow

[Chicago Storm]

Denver finally picked up their first measurable snow of the season today. Poor Matty wasn’t even there for it.

[Frog Town]

It's happening!  Finally, something to get excited about on the 12Z.  That would make this current shitty December pattern worth it.  I think we all suffer from Seasonal Affectiveness Disorder, but in the reverse sense.  

[Malacka11]

50 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

It's happening!  Finally, something to get excited about on the 12Z.  That would make this current shitty December pattern worth it.  I think we all suffer from Seasonal Affectiveness Disorder, but in the reverse sense.  

Now to see if this one actually holds together for 250 hours. Seeing how the last twelve have gone...

[CheeselandSkies]

29 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Now to see if this one actually holds together for 250 hours. Seeing how the last twelve have gone...

In the sense that it's December 10th and you're looking at a more likey threat than snow?

[Baum]

30 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Now to see if this one actually holds together for 250 hours. Seeing how the last twelve have gone...

until I see I see in depth pattern change discussions from folks I put credence in or posting of such from respected non board sourcesI would have no faith in any event showing on any model. Sadly, the type of event we are experiencing today normally leads to a pattern change instead will be well into the 60's by mid week. Although, what I thought could be a sunny and 70 degree day looks off the table now. 

[Malacka11]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

until I see I see in depth pattern change discussions from folks I put credence in or posting of such from respected non board sourcesI would have no faith in any event showing on any model. Sadly, the type of event we are experiencing today normally leads to a pattern change instead will be well into the 60's by mid week. Although, what I thought could be a sunny and 70 degree day looks off the table now. 

That's what I'm saying. Especially since it's Christmas right after, I'm not getting my hopes up, even as a weenie. 

 

And yeah, it's a tragedy that the next warmup is gonna be stratus purgatory rather than beautiful sun

[cyclone77]

Big-time overachiever here today.  Picked up almost an inch of badly needed rain.  Had several rounds of thunder as well.  

[hawkeye_wx]

I picked up a decent 0.45" of rain.  I also heard several light rumbles.

[bowtie`]

1.64" in the tippy bucket overnight.

[Hoosier]

Could possibly be well into the 60s (mid 60s?) in Chicago when the clock strikes midnight on Thursday.  That reading will not hold through the rest of Thursday though.

[McHenrySnow]

17 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Big-time overachiever here today.  Picked up almost an inch of badly needed rain.  Had several rounds of thunder as well.  

We shockingly got 2.97" of rain. A rare overachiever for this year! 

[Hoosier]

No measurable snow at ORD today, so still no measurable snow yet for Chicago this season.

It's really getting good (bad) now.

[madwx]

most of the snow from this morning has melted away already.   Should be up up and away with temps starting tomorrow.

[Chicago Storm]

No measurable snow at ORD today, so still no measurable snow yet for Chicago this season.
It's really getting good (bad) now.

Making it to Friday (17th) is a lock, but beyond that it’ll likely become fairly dicey.


.

[CheeselandSkies]

5 minutes ago, madwx said:

most of the snow from this morning has melted away already.   Should be up up and away with temps starting tomorrow.

MKX:
 

Quote

ednesday through Wednesday night:

Southerly winds will continue to draw in unseasonable/record warmth
and also unseasonably high dew points. Forecast may actually need
"humid" in there to account for dew points potentially nearing 60
which for December standards is quite tropical. Some hints of some
waa/moist advection induced showers ahead of the main low. A
vigorous negatively tilted shortwave will then ride northeast from
Iowa through northwest Wisconsin later Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. Models in good agreement on a strong low riding to our
northwest and north. A highly dynamical system where we will need to
keep an eye on the 00z-06z timeframe Wednesday evening as the best
dynamics try to lineup with some favorable thermodynamics. Seeing
some hints of severe potential already in the CIPS analogs that for
now anyways zero in more on Iowa, but as the evening wears on and
the wave rides northeast we may have enough instability to generate
some sct TSRA in a line ahead of the cold front. bears watching
heading into Wednesday evening. Still a ways off and things can
change but the unseasonably high temps and dew points warrant some
concern.

SPC didn't sound impressed by anything when they put out their 4-8 this morning, but then again they didn't introduce a slight risk for last night's horror show until Wednesday (Day 3 outlook).

[Cary67]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Making it to Friday (17th) is a lock, but beyond that it’ll likely become fairly dicey.


.

Seems similar to last year's start

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Seems similar to last year's start

But even worse.  

[Hoosier]

2nd latest measurable for Chicago is 12/16.  Looks like we will make it past that, and the only one left standing in the way is 12/20 (2012)

[A-L-E-K]

Lol 2012

[CheeselandSkies]

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Lol 2012

Ironically though it was '11-'12 that was the dry, snowless winter as I recall. '12-'13 ended up decent at least where I was living at the time (Milwaukee area) but the vast majority of that came after mid-January. Not unlike 2020-'21.