December 2021 General Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

Let's see if the upcoming system throws a few surprises at us.  Some spread in ensembles from operational model run which could get interesting.  The futility is sad,  but the general trend with the changing climate probably makes this the new norm. 

he lives.


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[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, Justin said:

  The futility is sad,  but the general trend with the changing climate probably makes this the new norm. 

Detroit, similar climate to Chicago, is more than double average snowfall to date. And how many unusually early and late season snowfalls has this region seen in recent years? There is nothing pointing towards a late first measurable snow being the new norm for Chicago anymore than their recent Halloween snowstorm being a new norm.

[Cary67]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit, similar climate to Chicago, is more than double average snowfall to date. And how many unusually early and late season snowfalls has this region seen in recent years? There is nothing pointing towards a late first measurable snow being the new norm for Chicago anymore than their recent Halloween snowstorm being a new norm.

Could argue DTW on a snow island of sorts this year.

[IWXwx]

2 hours ago, Baum said:

I'll keep the discussion going only because there is not much else to talk about. My recollection of real memorable snowfalls prior to December 1 of each year is as follows:

1975. Thanksgiving weekend event measured perhaps 9" compacted to 3" of muck within hours.

December 1, 1978. 13" Special year.

Halloween 2019. Couple inches of wet snow, and more memorable for freezing the leaves on the trees. Not sure it snowed again until sometime in January.

And than the tree snapper from Thanksgiving weekend 2018 which i still have tree damage from.

Every other snowfall was nothing more than a stat padder as the saying goes. So while I understand the statistical anomaly and its impact on  historical and future data it just does not send me over the edge on December 7. I'd much rather see a pattern shift to real winter when I think there is a better chance of it sticking. And based on some of the reporting  from the more climatologically favored locales winter is establishing itself quite well. If I'm still spewing the same spin(shiat) on New Years than I'll walk to the edge of the cliff. Sidenote: haven't seen a flake today as of yet. 24 days to go...let the countdown begin.

Oct. 19-20 1989, the "blizzard of '78" of autumn storms in Central/Northern IN. 9" of cement

[Frog Town]

59 minutes ago, Justin said:

Let's see if the upcoming system throws a few surprises at us.  Some spread in ensembles from operational model run which could get interesting.  The futility is sad,  but the general trend with the changing climate probably makes this the new norm. 

Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression....and Acceptance.  

 

I'm still in the Depression stage.  

[OrdIowPitMsp]

3” of snow otg, clear skies and 5 degrees. Finally feels like winter. 

[A-L-E-K]

[Chicago Storm]

ready2torch.


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[A-L-E-K]

remember when folks were in denial

 

[Thundersnow12]

Brutal look. Might never snow there 

[Cary67]

50 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

remember when folks were in denial

 

Firepit season extended

[A-L-E-K]

takes me back to my cg days, can't say i miss it too much, very nice looking patio tho friend

wad looking $

[ChiTownSnow]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

remember when folks were in denial

 

Remember when this is still 174 out :)..  but yeah agree it's been pretty consistent.  The models backed off a bit sub 100 hours out on the warm up for the 10th. It'll be warm for sure but maybe it'll also back off a bit before then.  

[Malacka11]

If it could only snow an inch or two for Christmas I'm fine with it if it never snows again this season

[Pascy619]

Would have to think records will be shattered if those GFS temps for next week end up verifying.

[Baum]

36 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

If it could only snow an inch or two for Christmas I'm fine with it if it never snows again this season

 

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

takes me back to my cg days, can't say i miss it too much, very nice looking patio tho friend

wad looking $

Thx. CG stood tall again in football winning 6A title over ESL. 

[A-L-E-K]

70 or bust

[Chicago Storm]

Might be about time to break out some stats today.


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[ChiTownSnow]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Might be about time to break out some stats today.


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And I'll show you where you can put those stats..haha

[Brian D]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

I did these up a while ago, good time to post them. Those temps above are extreme, especially for mid Dec.

 

[Hoosier]

JB might say enjoy the torch, it's the only torch you've got.

It's going to be nice.  Often a mild period in December is just in the 40s or 50s and it still has a cool feel (especially if it's windy).  If it's not going to snow, then might as well not bother with middling warmth.

[ChiTownSnow]

https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling

Skilling already posted the stats on the Facebook page regarding 60s in December for Chicago.. again not that impressive as you would think..

 

[A-L-E-K]

lol, next few decades gonna be hard 4 u

[ChiTownSnow]

For Chicago:

-The total number of 60 deg or warmer December days over 150 years has been 77

- the only December “Day” which has failed to produce a 60 at some point was dec 22^nd

 

So more often than not, we get a 60 degree day in December.   

[madwx]

5 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling

Skilling already posted the stats on the Facebook page regarding 60s in December for Chicago.. again not that impressive as you would think..

 

lol the all time December record max is 65 for Madison and this model has us hitting that at noon on Wednesday with a couple more hours of heating/advection.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling

Skilling already posted the stats on the Facebook page regarding 60s in December for Chicago.. again not that impressive as you would think..

 

The snowless start is more impressive at this point.   

But if Chicago can at least reach the mid-upper 60s, that will be pretty impressive for the time of year.  Not all 60+ readings in December are the same.

[ChiTownSnow]

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol, next few decades gonna be hard 4 u

not if you just accept the fact that its not that abnormal    .   but yeah probably

[ChiTownSnow]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The snowless start is more impressive at this point.   

But if Chicago can at least reach the mid-upper 60s, that will be pretty impressive for the time of year.  Not all 60+ readings in December are the same.

Totally agree.  but even that is not THAT impressive is my point .   i am clearly on my own here though.  

[Chicago Storm]

For Chicago:
-The total number of 60 deg or warmer December days over 150 years has been 77
- the only December “Day” which has failed to produce a 60 at some point was dec 22^nd
 
So more often than not, we get a 60 degree day in December

No, that’s not what that means.

150 years worth of December days is 4,650 days. If only 77 December days during that 150 years have hit 60°+, only an extremely small amount of December days actually get into the 60°’s.


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