December 2021 General Discussion

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a little different take on the Chicago futility thus far.  These are the years with 0.5" or less on the season through 12/15:

T:  2012

T:  1965

0.1":  2001

0.2":  1998

0.2":  1993

0.2":  1938

0.3":  1999

0.3":  1984

0.3":  1948

0.3":  1943

0.4":  1939

0.4":  1912

0.5":  2011

0.5":  1918

How much did we have through 12/15 last year? Couldn't have been much

[Chicago Storm]

How much did we have through 12/15 last year? Couldn't have been much

0.7” ORD and 2.3” RFD.


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[cyclone77]

Down to 6 here.  

Today's 20s felt considerably colder with the very gusty winds all day.  Can tell my body definitely hasn't acclimated to it yet.

[Hoosier]

At least we have the end of the 00z GFS to pin our hopes on.

[Malacka11]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At least we have the end of the 00z GFS to pin our hopes on.

First we need to hope that the current storm keeps baby stepping consistently south for the next fifteen runs. 

[cyclone77]

I feel bad for anyone who actually gets in on the thread the needle event as it will vanish quickly much like an April snowfall.  Takes a lot of the fun out of the event IMO.

[fluoronium]

There's still a consistent signal for severe in the southern portions of this subforum for the 10th. I'd be happy without seeing a single flake of snow this month if it meant I got to see an elusive December tornado.

[hawkeye_wx]

All models tonight are south with the Friday system.  I don't expect it to sag too much farther south, but I may at least see the first accumulation of the season.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Low of 3 overnight. Temp has risen to 8 with light snow. Should see a coating maybe a quarter inch of new snow this morning while areas further south push towards 0.5-1” 

[Baum]

solid early December day on tap it appears. Slate gray sky, frosty temps in the mid-20's and some mood flakes fluttering from the sky. It's beginning to feel a bit like Christmas. Maybe, we can get a burst of flakes from the cold/dry air mass to whiten the ground and quell the stat mavens to get a .01 on the board. It'll happen when you least expect it. 

[wishforsnow]

It looks so far in my neck of the woods it is doing like it did last winter. A few days of winter weather, then many days of blow torch.

[josh_4184]

Picked up a little snow the past 48 hours. Yes that's my patio table somewhere in all of that. 

[ChiTownSnow]

9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

just another stat, and remember… nothing abnormal about it.




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We can go back and forth if you want,  but this stat is really not all that impressive or even that abnormal in the bigger picture for December 7th.  It's like a batting average in the first 10 games of season. nor should it be used as an indication of how well the upcoming season will pan our..  but go ahead and start counting the minutes and seconds as well I guess

[Chicago Storm]

We can go back and forth if you want,  but this stat is really not all that impressive, nor should it be used as an indication of how well the upcoming season will pan our..  but go ahead and start counting the minutes and seconds as well I guess

clearly tth now.


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[ChiTownSnow]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

clearly tth now.


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I guess..  have fun drowning your sorrows in your lack of snow for December 7th.  I'll go enjoy the rest of the season

[Chicago Storm]

I guess..  have fun drowning your sorrows in your lack of snow for December 7th.  I'll go enjoy the rest of the season

error on your part there, i’m a summer/warm season guy.


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[madwx]

Got down to 6 here this morning.  -12 in Medford.  Will go look in the northwoods for some colder temps

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

error on your part there, i’m a summer/warm season guy.


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I'm good with both. But I'm guessing we could get you stoked for 20" blizzard. Reality is I suspect it was your original "weenism" that led you to do this as a professional career. It certainly led me in that direction, until I realized it required math skills. So now, I'm a professional weather board reader.  Note: I consider the term "weenism" in a positive light. 

[Pascy619]

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

I feel bad for anyone who actually gets in on the thread the needle event as it will vanish quickly much like an April snowfall.  Takes a lot of the fun out of the event IMO.

I'm right on the rain/snow line right now. Hoping it trends north tbh, I can't stand watching a healthy snow pack fade away in December. 

[michsnowfreak]

Had some blinding cellular snow squalls dot the area yesterday. Near white outs, then sun. I picked up 0.4" on the day, 7.1" on the season. DTW had 0.2", with 7.6" on the season.  Missed a very hvy squall about 3 miles to my south in the evening, but it's nice to see the lakes churning again.

[Brian D]

Here's are Nov stats. Pretty close to avg overall for our region with very mild weather in the plains with some top 10/near record high avg's. Ohio valley saw some top 10 record cool avg's as well. Ended up being the 5th warmest Fall.

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, Baum said:

solid early December day on tap it appears. Slate gray sky, frosty temps in the mid-20's and some mood flakes fluttering from the sky. It's beginning to feel a bit like Christmas. Maybe, we can get a burst of flakes from the cold/dry air mass to whiten the ground and quell the stat mavens to get a .01 on the board. It'll happen when you least expect it. 

That's why I like the list I put together last night.  Latest measurable snow is good to look at, but here are a couple of hypotheticals... what if 0.1" fell at the observation site but it wasn't measured?  Or if 0.1" fell a half mile down the road, that is very nearby.  I'm not saying that pertains to this year, but it could happen in some years.

Fact is, it's a bad start this year and it's only getting worse.  Claiming otherwise is spin.  Yes, it's still early and yes it could even turn around and become a pretty good winter.  Nobody is saying that it can't.

[ILSNOW]

12z Euro to the rescue

[Baum]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That's why I like the list I put together last night.  Latest measurable snow is good to look at, but here are a couple of hypotheticals... what if 0.1" fell at the observation site but it wasn't measured?  Or if 0.1" fell a half mile down the road, that is very nearby.  I'm not saying that pertains to this year, but it could happen in some years.

Fact is, it's a bad start this year and it's only getting worse.  Claiming otherwise is spin.  Yes, it's still early and yes it could even turn around and become a pretty good winter.  Nobody is saying that it can't.

I'll keep the discussion going only because there is not much else to talk about. My recollection of real memorable snowfalls prior to December 1 of each year is as follows:

1975. Thanksgiving weekend event measured perhaps 9" compacted to 3" of muck within hours.

December 1, 1978. 13" Special year.

Halloween 2019. Couple inches of wet snow, and more memorable for freezing the leaves on the trees. Not sure it snowed again until sometime in January.

And than the tree snapper from Thanksgiving weekend 2018 which i still have tree damage from.

Every other snowfall was nothing more than a stat padder as the saying goes. So while I understand the statistical anomaly and its impact on  historical and future data it just does not send me over the edge on December 7. I'd much rather see a pattern shift to real winter when I think there is a better chance of it sticking. And based on some of the reporting  from the more climatologically favored locales winter is establishing itself quite well. If I'm still spewing the same spin(shiat) on New Years than I'll walk to the edge of the cliff. Sidenote: haven't seen a flake today as of yet. 24 days to go...let the countdown begin.

[Frog Town]

I'm sure a lot our minds on this forum work this way, but here's my hope...

I feel like when we are in a great snowy cold snap, there is always that background noise of pattern change and "enjoy it while it last, it's gonna warm up.."   What I'm hoping to hear soon is, -EPO is coming, WPO is setting up perfectly, MJO is moving towards a great position.  These are the things that I hope set us up for a nice wintry stretch to end December and last through the new year.  Then it can torch all it wants.  

[buckeye]

12 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

I'm sure a lot our minds on this forum work this way, but here's my hope...

I feel like when we are in a great snowy cold snap, there is always that background noise of pattern change and "enjoy it while it last, it's gonna warm up.."   What I'm hoping to hear soon is, -EPO is coming, WPO is setting up perfectly, MJO is moving towards a great position.  These are the things that I hope set us up for a nice wintry stretch to end December and last through the new year.  Then it can torch all it wants.  

I'm right with you brother.   Let's torch till a couple days before xmas and then let the bottom fall out...polar vortex...snowmaggaedon....winter's worst.   Keep that going for the first 3 weeks of January then bring on Feb/March 2012.    That's my perfect 'winter'.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Todays wave came with more of a punch then expected. Very fluffy high ratio snow. 2-4” reports across the southern portion of the metro. The airport reported 1” as of noon. My guess is ~1/2” or so is added to the final total.

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

I'll keep the discussion going only because there is not much else to talk about. My recollection of real memorable snowfalls prior to December 1 of each year is as follows:

1975. Thanksgiving weekend event measured perhaps 9" compacted to 3" of muck within hours.

December 1, 1978. 13" Special year.

Halloween 2019. Couple inches of wet snow, and more memorable for freezing the leaves on the trees. Not sure it snowed again until sometime in January.

And than the tree snapper from Thanksgiving weekend 2018 which i still have tree damage from.

Every other snowfall was nothing more than a stat padder as the saying goes. So while I understand the statistical anomaly and its impact on  historical and future data it just does not send me over the edge on December 7. I'd much rather see a pattern shift to real winter when I think there is a better chance of it sticking. And based on some of the reporting  from the more climatologically favored locales winter is establishing itself quite well. If I'm still spewing the same spin(shiat) on New Years than I'll walk to the edge of the cliff. Sidenote: haven't seen a flake today as of yet. 24 days to go...let the countdown begin.

We had some light snow earlier this afternoon 

[michsnowfreak]

I forgot to mention so I'll mention now. Both the November 27th snowstorm and the December 5th rainstorm far exceeded forecast qpf locally. I am not just referring to a placement of a convective band or something, the systems turned out much more precipitation than was forecast. I bring it up because I figure this may be something to watch this Winter for some snowy surprises.  The 4" Nov 27 snowfall saw 0.42" of liquid when all model QPF ranged from 0.1 to 0.25". As I recall modeled QPF for the rain on the 5th was between 0.25 and 0.5 but we ended up a 0.71".

[Justin]

Let's see if the upcoming system throws a few surprises at us.  Some spread in ensembles from operational model run which could get interesting.  The futility is sad,  but the general trend with the changing climate probably makes this the new norm.