December 2021 General Discussion

[Malacka11]

Find it a funny meme that LOT is mentioning systems for next weekend already given the propensity for every modeled storm to f uck off inside of 150 hours this year

[Pascy619]

2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Surprise accumulation in the northeast suburbs this morning.

That's about what we picked up in Eastern WI this morning. The warm balmy temps are quickly making it a distant memory now. 

[Brian D]

WS Watch out for Sat night thru Sun night for the Northland area. 4-6" with 8"+ along the higher terrain very possible.

Northwest flow will continue for the Northland as we move into the
weekend. Currently a trough over the Gulf of Alaska will move
eastward with time, but not before pieces of energy split off and
move out ahead of the trough. More specifically, by Saturday
night a strong disturbance moves towards the CWA. This will be the
initial start of a prolonged period of snow for northeast MN and
northwest WI. Models continue in agreement on the start of snow
which will be around 00Z Sunday for the southwest part of the
CWA. As the trough transitions into its next phase this is where
the models differ a bit. The GFS and ECMWF have an upper level low
pressure developing by Sunday afternoon, whereas the Canadian and
NAM12 still have an open trough. Regardless, the axis of higher
snow totals appears to move northeastward towards the Arrowhead.
For the same time frame, the associated surface low pressure does
vary on location per the aforementioned models, however no matter
the solution it is still west of the CWA thereby allowing for
onshore flow for the North Shore. This will create a good scenario
for lake effect snow to accumulate along the North Shore. Greater
than 8 inches is likely for southern Lake and Cook Counties along
with blowing and drifting snow as the winds will become gusty
Sunday afternoon. Models come back in agreement for Sunday night
with a trough over the far northeastern portion of MN to northwest
WI. Due to that, a TROWAL and deformation zone will likely not be
the leading cause of higher snow totals, but the prolonged period
of snowfall will give the northland its first widespread
measurable snowfall. Moving into Monday, lake effect snowfall will
transition to the South Shore with likely snow totals of at least
8 inches.

[Chicago Storm]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Ooh boy.  Well, if that happens, I just might let out a beavis type rant in the complaint thread.  Tired of crappy Decembers.

i’m not saying that it will, but definitely not out of the cards.

[Pascy619]

Warm and Wet to close the month out.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

@Brian Dfurther up the shore from you could see 12-18” with lake enhancement and orographic effect.

[Brian D]

50 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

@Brian Dfurther up the shore from you could see 12-18” with lake enhancement and orographic effect.

They're upping the the snow total possibility as you have mentioned from earlier today. 

For areas north of U.S. 2, there is increasing confidence for
accumulations exceeding 6 inches. Model guidance continues to show a
strong signal for accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the
northern half of the CWA. Areas in the higher terrain of the North
Shore may see accumulations exceeding a foot due to enhancement from
Lake Superior and orographic effects. A Winter Storm Watch remains
in effect for these portions of the CWA from Saturday night to
Monday morning due to the likelihood of 6 inches of snow or more. An
upgrade to a warning will likely be needed. However, the watch
wasn`t upgraded at this time due to uncertainty about the northern
extent of the dry slot.

[ChiTownSnow]

Anybody else excited to lay some snowpack up N And NW?  Feed that cold air down!     At this point I just want cold for the backyard rink

[A-L-E-K]

punt the rink until jan, we torching mid month

[Stevo6899]

16 hours ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said:

Warm and Wet to close the month out.

I feel like i saw these same maps all last year up until now and never seem to verify, atleast up this way in the eastern lakes. Either way looks like were gonna have to thread the needle to get a snowstorm for the next few weeks through christmas.

[Stevo6899]

43 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Anybody else excited to lay some snowpack up N And NW?  Feed that cold air down!     At this point I just want cold for the backyard rink

Its been more frustrating to see pretty much 80% of the U.S. seeing record warmth, while were stuck in the 30s here in SE MI. If it ain't gonna snow, bring on the torch. Were getting neither! 

[ChiTownSnow]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

punt the rink until jan, we torching mid month

Why do we always trust these maps 240 hours out?  We never trust anything else 240 out? 

[A-L-E-K]

it's not a temperature map

it's an ensemble prog showing a rock solid signal for ridge centered over your backyard

good luck threading the needle on the 11/12 then get ready 2 torch

[ChiTownSnow]

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

it's not a temperature map

it's an ensemble prog showing a rock solid signal for ridge centered over your backyard

good luck threading the needle on the 11/12 then get ready 2 torch

Yeah I didn't look close at ur map..  still 240 out.  I don't trust anything over 150.. regardless of how strong of a signal it is

[ChiTownSnow]

48 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

it's not a temperature map

it's an ensemble prog showing a rock solid signal for ridge centered over your backyard

good luck threading the needle on the 11/12 then get ready 2 torch

The corresponding air temperature on the ensemble for that same time period isnt that bad.  Honest question: are these maps all driven from the same data set based on model output?

[Chicago Storm]

The corresponding air temperature on the ensemble for that same time period isnt that bad.  Honest question: are these maps all driven from the same data set based on model output?

An ENS temp plot 240hrs out is useless. You’d need to look at the temp anomaly plot.




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[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

An ENS temp plot 240hrs out is useless. You’d need to look at the temp anomaly plot.




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That's kind of my point.. there's not much that's not useless 240 out unless it's a consistent signal over time.  I would have to be consistent in the 150 to 240 range in my opinion. 

[Chicago Storm]

Its been more frustrating to see pretty much 80% of the U.S. seeing record warmth, while were stuck in the 30s here in SE MI. If it ain't gonna snow, bring on the torch. Were getting neither! 

Pretty sure SE. MI has already had two snow events, and the Detroit area is already up to 6-8” on the season through the end of November.


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[Chicago Storm]

punt the rink until jan, we torching mid month

-PNA/+EPO/+NAO/+AO will do that to ya.


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[A-L-E-K]

fine with it

[Chicago Storm]

That's kind of my point.. there's not much that's not useless 240 out unless it's a consistent signal over time.  I would have to be consistent in the 150 to 240 range in my opinion. 

The signal is strong, and is well supported by ENS, longer range guidance and teleconnections.

As it stands now, the pattern through mid-month is not supportive for anything more than maybe a thread the needle type setup or so. …But we’ve already seen one of those vanish for early this upcoming week.

[Iceresistance]

Blizzard Warning for Southern Cook County in Minnesota

[Chicago Storm]

Repost from several days back, but we are about to enter the top 10…




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[Brian D]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Blizzard Warning for Southern Cook County in Minnesota

Just up the road from me is gonna be really bad. Winds will barely meet blizzard criteria, but the snow will be heavy up there. Pretty much near zero visibility.

 

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

punt the rink until jan, we torching mid month

My model method has a warm period around that time too, so I agree with this forecast. It breaks down as we near the solstice.

EDIT: I double checked, and it will be a little after this time of the 14th. 17-18th looks to be the start of a few days of generally warmer weather for the region as a whole. It'll flux a little, but definitely some mild air on tap.

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Brian D said:

Just up the road from me is gonna be really bad. Winds will barely meet blizzard criteria, but the snow will be heavy up there. Pretty much near zero visibility.

It's definitely going to be Borderline Blizzard Conditions in Minnesota

[A-L-E-K]

29 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Blizzard Warning for Southern Cook County in Minnesota

Fake cook co

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

Fake cook co

NWS has proof against that

 

Quote

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 10 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Cook County. This includes the Tribal Lands
  of the Grand Portage Reservation.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The worst conditions should be during the
  day on Sunday.

 

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Fake cook co

Ha.. I wish it was the real Cook county

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Its been more frustrating to see pretty much 80% of the U.S. seeing record warmth, while were stuck in the 30s here in SE MI. If it ain't gonna snow, bring on the torch. Were getting neither! 

We just had a snowy week last week lol. Not a big storm...but starting the snow season well above normal when most aren't. Clearly I want snow not warmth, but laying down needed snow to the north is not a bad thing in early December. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Repost from several days back, but we are about to enter the top 10…




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Out of that list, 1973-74 by far turned around the most with 58.3".  A couple other years finished snowier than average (1 of those was only a tick above average though).  The rest had below average snow and some were really bad clunkers.