December 2021 temperature forecast contest and winter snowfall contest

[Roger Smith]

This will be the final monthly contest for 2021 in what has proven to be a fairly close competition. I have added on the winter snowfall contest with the same stations in play as for the past few winters. Note carefully the substitutions for low-snow locations in the temperature contests. 

For the temperature forecasts, anomalies relative to 1991-2020 normals (F deg) for these nine locations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

and for the snowfall contest, six of those plus three more northern locations ... 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

deadlines for both contests 06z Dec 1st, some leeway will be allowed for the snowfall contest. 

Good luck !! 

[so_whats_happening]

DCA +1.5

NYC +1.1

BOS 0

ORD 1.0

ATL 1.2

IAH +1.7

DEN+2

PHX +1.5

SEA-0.4

Those darn nighttime lows got me last month and man the west was warm.

DCA 16"

NYC 34"

BOS 62"

ORD 41"

DTW 45"

BUF 74"

DEN 36"

SEA 11"

BTV 91"

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0       0.5       0.5       1.5     1.5         0.5    1.0      1.0  

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

10"      23"     38"       44"     38"     106"      49"      7"       129"           

[Rjay]

DCA +2.5

NYC +2.5

BOS +2.5

ORD +3.0

ATL +2.0   

IAH +1.5

DEN +4.5

PHX +3.5

SEA 0.0

 

DCA 5"

NYC 20"

BOS 42"

ORD 40"

DTW 34"

BUF 90"

DEN 50"

SEA 13"

BTV 100"

 

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.0      1.7       1.0       0.7       2.6     2.8        1.7      1.8      -0.9

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

12"      28"     36"       38"     36"     92"        41"      11       95"       

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.7      1.5       1.1         3.0     2.4     3.5         4.0    3.0      -0.5 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

9.4     27.3     44.9     35.1    28.3    84.0       43.4    9.5    71.5

[Tom]

DCA +1.1 

NYC +1.2

BOS +1.0

ORD +1.2

ATL +0.9   

IAH +1.1

DEN +1.5

PHX +1.8

SEA -0.3

 

DCA 17.7"

NYC 36.9"

BOS 46.1"

ORD 48.7"

DTW 47.8"

BUF 94.4"

DEN 65.2"

SEA 8.1"

BTV 102.2"

[bkviking]

DCA + 1.2

NYC +1.3

BOS +1.0

ORD +1.2

ATL +1.6 

IAH +1.8

DEN +2.5

PHX +2.8

SEA -0.5

 

DCA 8”

NYC 28”

BOS 42"

ORD 44”

DTW 25”

BUF 88”

DEN 55”

SEA 22”

BTV 85”

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.7      1.9       0.7         2.1     1.8     3.0         3.0    2.7       0.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN __SEA __ BTV

11.6    30.3     33.8    32.7   32.4     94.0       45.0    10.2.   108.8

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.1       1.6       1.3         3.2     3.7     4.7       5.6      4.1      0.4 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

12.8     25.0   45        54      42       91           48      12       75

[Roger Smith]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.0       -1.2      -0.8        -1.7     0.0     2.5       2.5      4.7    -1.5 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

17.5    32.5   50.7        44.8     49.5    107.2       52.0    10.5     82.2

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -1.3

NYC:  -1.3

BOS:  -0.9

ORD:  -1.3

ATL:  +1.6

IAH:  +2.3

DEN:  +2.8

PHX:  +2.6

SEA:  -0.2

Snow

DCA:  20

NYC:  38

BOS:  54

ORD:  52

DTW:  47

BUF:  104

DEN:  58

SEA:  13

BTV:  105

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for December 2021

 

_FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

RJay ___________________________+2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +4.5 _ +3.5 __ 0.0

 

RodneyS _______________________ +2.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 __ +3.2 _ +3.7 _ +4.7 __ +5.6 _ +4.1 _ +0.4

 

wxallannj ______________________ +2.0 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 __ +0.7 _ +2.6 _ +2.8 __ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ -0.9

 

DonSutherland 1 _______________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 __ +3.0 _ +2.4 _ +3.5 __ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ -0.5

 

Deformation Zone ______________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ -0.5

 

so_whats_happening ___________ +1.5 _ +1.1 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.7 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ -0.4

 

 

___ Consensus __________________ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ +2.4 __ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ -0.3

 

 

BKViking _______________________ +1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +2.5 _ +2.8 _ -0.5

 

Tom ____________________________ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ -0.3

 

Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0

 

hudsonvalley21 ________________ +0.7 _ +1.9 _ +0.7 __ +2.1 _ +1.8 _ +3.0 __ +3.0 _ +2.7 _ +0.2

 

___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 

 

Roger Smith ___________________ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -0.8 __ -1.7 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +4.7 _ -1.5

 

wxdude64 _____________________ -1.3 __ -1.3 _ -0.9 __ -1.3 _ +1.6 __ +2.3 __ +2.8 _ +2.6 _ -0.2

 

 

 

============================================================

 

Snowfall Forecast Contest Winter 2021-22

 

__________________________________ DCA __NYC __BOS ___ ORD __DTW __BUF __ DEN __SEA __BTV

 

wxdude64 _______________________20.0 __ 38.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 __ 47.0 __104.0__ 58.0 __13.0 __105.0 

 

Tom ______________________________17.7 __ 36.9 __ 46.1 __ 48.7 __ 47.8 __ 94.4 __ 65.2 __ 8.1 __102.2 

 

Roger Smith ______________________17.5 __ 32.5 __ 50.7 __ 44.8 __ 49.5 __107.2 __ 52.0 __10.5__ 82.2

 

so_whats_happening _____________16.0 __ 34.0 __ 62.0 __ 41.0 __ 45.0 __ 74.0 __ 36.0 __11.0 __ 91.0 

 

RodneyS ________________________ 12.8 __ 25.0 __ 45.0 __ 54.0 __ 42.0 __ 91.0 __ 48.0 __12.0 __ 75.0 

 

wxallannj ________________________12.0 __ 28.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 36.0 __ 92.0 __ 41.0 __11.0 __ 95.0 

 

hudsonvalley21 __________________11.6 __ 30.3 __ 33.8 __ 32.7 __ 32.4 __ 94.0 __ 45.0 __10.2 __108.8 

 

Scotty Lightning _________________10.0 __ 23.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 38.0 __106.0 __ 49.0 __ 7.0 __129.0 

 

DonSutherland 1 __________________9.4 __ 27.3 __ 44.9 __ 35.1 __ 28.3 __ 84.0 __ 43.4 __ 9.5 __ 71.5 

 

BKViking _________________________ 8.0 __ 28.0 __ 42.0 __ 44.0 __ 25.0 __ 88.0 __ 55.0 __22.0__ 85.0 

 

Deformation Zone ________________ 8.0 __ 18.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 70.0 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 86.0 

 

RJay _____________________________ 5.0 __ 20.0 __ 42.0 __ 40.0 __ 34.0 __ 90.0 __ 50.0 __13.0 __100.0 

 

 

mean of forecasts _______________12.3 __ 28.4 __ 44.2 ___ 42.7 __ 39.1 __ 91.2 __ 47.2 __10.9 __ 94.2

 

====================================

 

   

 

 

        

[Roger Smith]

Updated anomalies and projections ...

________________________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

_ 11th _________ ( 10d anom ) __________ +2.8 _+1.4 _+1.0 __+4.1 _+5.7_+12.2__+9.8 _+7.5 _+0.2

_ 21st _________ ( 20d anom ) __________+4.7 _+4.7 _+4.0__+7.5 _+6.3_+10.7__+8.8 _+4.0 _-1.2

 

_ 11th _________ ( p20d anom ) _________+8.0 _+7.0 _+6.0 __+6.0_+8.0_+10.0__+5.5 _+4.5_-1.5

_ 11th _________ ( p27d anom ) _________ +5.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 __+3.5_+5.0_+7.0 __+2.5 _+3.0 _-1.5

_ 21st _________ ( 31d anom ) __________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 __+5.0 _+5.0_+8.0__+5.0 _+3.5 _-3.0

_ Final anomalies _____________________ +5.9 _+4.7 _+3.5 __+7.5 _+8.7_+12.4_+7.2 _+3.4 _-4.0

 

Snowfall (no fall) contest update ______ DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD_DTW_BUF __DEN _SEA_BTV

___ (Snowfall to Dec 31) _______________ 0.0 _ 0.2 _ 0.4 ____ 1.9 _10.4 _10.7 ____ 4.8 _ 9.4 _15.0 

 

___________________

11th _ After a rather average start in the east, mild central and west, a very mild interval now looms and will drive anomalies well up as they already are in Houston and Denver. Following that, rather cold is the current indication for the Christmas holiday period, especially in the northern tier, so I have reduced the large positive anomalies accordingly but with little time left at that point the month seems likely to end well above normal everywhere but the Pac NW. 

21st _ The warmest period has come and gone in the east and anomalies will slowly sink back to less extreme positive outcomes. Central regions will stay in a subdued warmer regime and IAH in particular may not lose much of its current large anomaly (+12). DEN could have a few much colder days in the mix, PHX will stay warm to near end of month, and SEA is going into a deep freeze around Christmas for almost a week. The projections above will be used to generate preliminary scoring. Meanwhile, have updated the snowfall reports for the few locations that have seen any snow so far. DEN only at 0.3" and BOS 0.4", nothing measurable yet at DCA, NYC or ORD. SEA about to start its account with snow in the forecast.

Jan 1st _ Posting final anomalies, will probably take my time with the scoring as it's New Years and I may not feel like pushing myself ... seems to have stayed much milder in the east, pushing those anomalies above our forecasts by quite a margin. The scoring will need to be converted to the max 60 model for quite a few locations, I believe. Anomalies posted are either confirmed (if bold) or close estimates from 31st climate data and 1st-30th CF6. Snowfalls also updated through midnight Dec 31st.  All locations now show final anomalies and scoring is complete. 

 

[Roger Smith]

_ Final Scoring for December 2021 _

 

Scores are based on latest end of month projections in the previous post. Six locations needed the boost of "minimum progression" to max 60 and rank order scoring (unless raw scores for any forecaster higher at their scoring level). NYC just barely needed this boost but it did not make much difference to the scores shown as quite a few remain raw scores, while the other locations converted had larger differentials from a maximum raw score of 60.

 

DEN had a large anomaly but RodneyS had a high enough raw score (84) that it prevented the scoring from being boosted there. PHX and BOS appear to be within the realm of normal scoring and for PHX we find the only two examples of forecasts which were more extreme than the outcome. Every other forecast fell short of the actual anomaly at other locations, although almost all of us had the right anomaly signs. I will let you know in the final report whether the boosts made much difference to the annual scoring outcome, for now I don't think it made any difference, the raw scores while lower in general would have been separated by about the same amounts as these results, within 20 points.

 

As of 0615h EST Jan 1 the scoring is final, IAH has not confirmed a value yet but it will obviously require the scoring boost as shown (will be +12 or higher).  

 

 

_FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL

 

RodneyS ____________________ 55^_ 45^_ 56 __ 156 __ 60^_ 60^_ 60^__ 180 __336 __ 84 _ 86 _ 12 __ 182 ___ 518

 

RJay ________________________ 60^_ 60^_ 80 __ 200 __55^_ 45^_ 15^ __ 115 __ 315 __ 68 _ 98 _ 20^__ 186 ___ 501

 

DonSutherland 1 ____________ 45^_ 40^_ 52 __ 137 __ 55^_ 50^_ 55^ __ 160 __ 297 __ 58 _ 92 _ 50^__ 200 ___ 497

 

Deformation Zone ___________40^_ 40^_ 50 __ 130 __ 30^_ 45^_ 45^ __ 120 __ 250 __ 38 _ 92 _ 50^__ 180 ___ 430

 

wxallannj ____________________50^_ 50^_ 50 __ 150 __ 20^_ 55^_ 35^ __ 110 __ 260 ___ 17 _ 68 _ 55^__ 140 ___ 400

 

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 15^_ 55^_ 44 __ 114 __ 45^_ 35^_ 50^ __ 130 __ 244 __ 38 _ 86 _ 16 ___140 ___ 384

 

BKViking ____________________ 30^_ 32 _ 50 __ 112 __ 40^_ 30^_ 25^ __ 095 __ 207 __ 28 _ 88 _ 50^__ 166 ___ 373

 

 

___ Consensus _______________32^_ 34 _ 50 __ 116 __ 35^_ 30^_ 32^ __ 097 __ 213 __ 32 _ 88 _ 32^__ 152 ___ 365

 

 

so_whats_happening ________40^_ 28 _ 30 __ 098 __ 30^_ 15^_ 20^ __ 065 ___ 163 __ 20 _ 62 _ 35^__ 117 ___ 280

 

Tom _________________________25^_ 30 _ 50 __ 105 __ 40^_ 10^_ 05^ __ 055 __ 160 __ 15 _ 68 _ 30^ __ 113 ___ 273

 

Roger Smith ________________ 10^_ 10^_ 14 __ 034 __ 05^_ 05^_ 45^ __ 055 ___ 089 __ 28 _ 74 _ 60^__ 162 ___ 251

 

wxdude64 __________________ 05^_ 05^_ 12 __ 022 __ 10^_ 30^_ 30^ __ 070 ___ 092 __ 34 _ 84 _ 25^__ 143 ___ 235

 

Scotty Lightning ____________ 20^_ 26 _ 40 __ 086 __ 15^_ 20^_ 15^ __ 050 ___ 136 __ 05 _ 52 _ 05^___062 ___ 198

 

 

___ Normal __________________ 12^_ 12^_ 30 __ 054 __ 12^_ 05^_ 00 ___ 017 ___ 071 __ 00 _ 32 _ 22^___ 054 ___ 125 

 

============================================================

 

 

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

 

Based on current projections, all locations but PHX would qualify. Seven are going to the warmest forecasts and one to the coldest (SEA).

 

RJay has three wins at present and RodneyS has four, all for warmest forecasts. SEA will go to Roger Smith with coldest forecast. PHX did not qualify at +3.4 or higher as the third highest forecast has high score. 

 

_______________________________________________

 

 

 

Annual update will be posted at end of the contest only. From what I recall of the differentials, RodneyS has made up about half the ground needed to catch DonSutherland1. With most projected outcomes higher than (or lower than for SEA) all forecasts there isn't much room for adjustments of these differentials, but time will tell. 

 

________________________________________________

 

(Scoring table with raw scores for the six locations that had some boosted scoring; totals of those and differentials from the above)

 

_FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL ___ diff

 

RodneyS ____________________ 33 _ 38 _ 56 __ 127 __ 39 _ 37 _ 38 __ 114 __241 __ 84 _ 86 _ 12 __ 182 ___ 423 (518) _ -95

 

RJay ________________________ 41 _ 56 _ 80 __ 177 __ 35 _ 20 _ 12 __ 067 __ 244 __ 68 _ 98 _ 20 __ 186 ___ 430 (501) _ -71

 

DonSutherland 1 ____________ 25 _ 36 _ 52 __ 113 __ 35 _ 24 _ 28 __ 087 __ 210 __ 58 _ 92 _ 30 __ 180 ___ 390 (497) _-107

 

Deformation Zone ___________21 _ 36 _ 50 __ 107 __ 10 _ 20 _ 20 __ 050 __ 157 __ 38 _ 92 _ 30 __ 160 ___ 317 (430) _ -113

 

wxallannj ____________________31 _ 40 _ 50 __ 121 __ 07 _ 26 _ 22 __ 055 __ 176 ___ 17 _ 68 _ 42 __ 127 ___ 400 (303) _ -97

 

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 07 _ 44 _ 44 __ 095 __ 21 _ 18 _ 24 __ 063 __ 158 __ 38 _ 86 _ 16 ___140 ___ 298 (383) _ -85

 

BKViking ____________________ 15 _ 32 _ 50 __ 097 __ 12 _ 16 _ 15 __ 043 __ 140 __ 28 _ 88 _ 30 __ 146 ___ 286 (373) _ -87

 

 

___ Consensus _______________19 _ 34 _ 50 __ 103 __ 11 _ 17 _ 18 __ 046 __ 149 __ 32 _ 88 _ 26 __ 146 ___ 295 (365) -70

 

 

so_whats_happening ________21 _ 28 _ 30 __ 098 __ 10 _ 12 _ 15 __ 037 ___ 135 __ 20 _ 62 _ 28 __ 110 ___ 245 (280) -35

 

Tom _________________________13 _ 30 _ 50 __ 093 __ 12 _ 09 _ 09 __ 030 __ 123 __ 15 _ 68 _ 26 __ 109 ___ 232 (273) -41

 

Roger Smith ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 14 __ 014 __ 00 _ 00 _ 22 __ 022 ___ 036 __ 28 _ 74 _ 50 __ 152 ___ 188 (251) -63

 

wxdude64 __________________ 00 _ 00 _ 12 __ 012 __ 00 _ 16 _ 18 __ 034 ___ 046 __ 34 _ 84 _ 24 __ 142 ___ 188 (235) -47

 

Scotty Lightning ____________ 11 _ 26 _ 40 __ 077 __ 05 _ 15 _ 13 __ 033 ___ 110 __ 05 _ 52 _ 00 ___057 ___ 167 (198) -31

 

 

___ Normal __________________00 _ 06 _ 30 __ 036 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___ 036 __ 00 _ 32 _ 20 __ 052 ___088 (125) -37

 

++++++++++++++++++

 

The only significant difference applying the raw scores would be that RJay had high score for Dec. 

 

Both pairs of exchanged final rankings would have been the same. 

 

Clearly the rich get richer in this boosted score by ranks, so I might give some thought to a slight variation which would be max 60 and other scores from a curve so that differentials would directly affect the scoring. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Dec) - - - - ============ >>>> 

 

High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. Change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved up one into the gap between 3rd and 4th place among forecasters. Normal dropped behind the final regular entrant (moi) and finished 12th. Prorated, second half entrant Deformation Zone was ahead of 9th place among the full-time entrants. Any changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa. Two pairs of forecasters exchanged ranks in December. The top three remained as before, 4th and 5th were exchanged, as were 6th and 7th. 

RodneyS in second moved from 107 back to 74 behind leader (and therefore contest winner) DonSutherland1. RodneyS would have finished 62 points back if I had not used the max 60 scoring rule, and both would have had fewer points in total (as would most others) -- I have now listed all raw score totals, does not look like the boosted scores made much difference to these ranks, but in any case, the rules were laid out before the contest year. RodneyS moved up quite steadily in the second half of the contest and fell just short of overtaking one final forecaster -- DonSutherland kept his forecasts close enough to RodneyS who was generally successful this month in going warm. If he had gone a bit warmer he might have been able to reach the top spot. Also RodneyS leads the contest in months won (three), and has a good record in best forecasts and extreme forecasts. But Don was consistently in the top half of the contests and held on for the win. Congrats to both of them, and also to BKViking who was third and managed to beat consensus, no mean feat. . 

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east _ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 818 _866 _650 _ 2334 __763 _914 _835 _2512_ 4846__564 _805 _796 _2165___ 7011

RodneyS _____________________ 796 _843 _661 _ 2300 __ 659 _910 _772 _ 2341__4641 __680 _810 _796 _2286__ 6927

BKViking _____________________ 771 _846 _655 _ 2272 __ 611 _ 833 _753 _ 2197__4469 __633 _754 _816 _2203___6672

 

___ Consensus (up 1) _________ 813 _862 _646 _ 2321 __597 _830 _762 _ 2189__4510 __608 _721 _772 _ 2101___ 6611

 

wxallannj (up 1) _____________ 777 _848 _609 _ 2234 __531 _821 _777 _ 2129__4363 __720 _687 _833 _2240 ___6603

Tom (down 1) ________________825 _909 _695 _ 2429__585 _743 _771 _ 2099__4528 __562 _687 _770 _2019___ 6547

RJay (up 1) __________________ 805 _861 _716 _ 2382 __687 _820 _680 _ 2187 __4569 __636 _654 _641 _1931___ 6500

hudsonvalley21 (down 1) ____765 _838 _654 _ 2257 __535 _807 _738 _ 2080__4337 __587 _754 _804_ 2145___ 6482

wxdude64 __________________ 773 _746 _565 _ 2084 __492 _815 _768 _ 2075 __4159 __624 _724 _709 _2057___ 6216

so_whats_happening ___________ 817 _777 _487 _ 2081 __580 _837 _643 _ 2060 __4141 __540 _678 _714 _ 1932___ 6073

Scotty Lightning _____________725 _770 _568 _ 2063 __436 _698 _681 _ 1815 __3878 __575 _659 _763 _ 1997___ 5875

Roger Smith __________________695 _648 _382 _ 1725 __555 _693 _819 _ 2067 __3792 __590 _658 _804 _2052__ 5844

___ Normal (down 1) _________724 _692 _474 _ 1890__378 _769 _758 _ 1905__3795 __530 _676 _772 _1978___ 5773

Deformation Zone _ (6/12) ___ 353 _ 312 _304 __ 969 __282 _425 _385 __1092__ 2061 __284 _352 _386 _1022__3083

(for comparison prorated x2)^^ __ 706 _624 _608 _ 1938 __554 _836 _748 _ 2184 __ 4122 __ 568 _704 _772 _2044__6166

_ this may not be exact because scoring in the six months DZ has entered may have been higher or lower than avg.

Stormchaser Chuck (1/12) ____ 020 _ 024 _ 064 _ 108 __080 _034 _068 _ 182 ___ 290 ___000 _ 010 _ 042_ 052 ___ 342 

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __cent __c/e __ DEN _PHX _SEA __west __ Totals

 

DonSutherland1 __________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

RodneyS _________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 3 __Feb,Jul,Dec

BKViking __________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____0 ____ 1 __ Apr

___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0_____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____0 ____ 0 __ 

wxallannj _________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __

Tom ______________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 1 __ May

RJay ______________________ 2 ____ 3 ____ 5 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 2 __Sep,Oct*

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ 

wxdude64 ________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar(t)

so_whats_happening ______ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

Scotty Lightning ___________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __

Roger Smith ________________1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 2 ____ 3__Jun,Aug,Nov

Deformation Zone __________0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 ______1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0  

___ Normal _________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __May,Jul

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* High score in Dec from adjusted scores went to RodneyS but RJay had a slightly higher total raw score before adjustments.

(see part two of Dec scoring)

 

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

This year, 82 locations out of 108 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, 8 in September and October, 5 in November and 8 in December.

Of those, 48 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 34 to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been nine shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). 

 

FORECASTER _______ Jan __Feb __Mar _ Apr _ May _Jun _ Jul _ Aug _Sep _ Oct_ Nov_ Dec __ TOTAL

Roger Smith _________ 2-1 __2-0 __ --- __1-0 __ 1-0 __2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _3-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 16-3

RodneyS ____________ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __ 2-1 __1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- _4-0 _ 15-1

RJay _________________ --- __--- __ 2-0 __2-0 __ 1-0 __1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _1-0 _ 1-0*_ --- _ 3-0 __ 12-0

wxallannj ____________ ---- __--- __ --- __3-0 __ 2-0 __3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _--- _ 1-0 _ ---- _---- _ 10-0

DonSutherland1 _____ 2-0 __1-0 __ 2-0 __0-1 __ 2-0 __1-0 __ --- _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- _ 10-1

___ Normal ___________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __--- __ 1-0 __--- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _--- _ 0-0 _ ---- _ ----__ 9-0

so_whats_happening _--- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _3-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ----__ 7-0

wxdude64 ___________ --- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 5-0

Tom __________________--- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ ---- _---- _3-0 _ --- _ ----__ 5-0

Deformation Zone ___ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-1 _ ---- _ ---- __ 4-1

BKViking _____________ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 4-1

Scotty Lightning _____ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __---- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ----__ 3-1

hudsonvalley21 ______ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __ ---__ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2-0 _ ---- __2-0

__________________________________

* RJay also had two other near-win efforts in October tied or very close to tied with others but late penalty interfered. These are called "no decision" outings in this contest. 

===================================================

  

[RodneyS]

Congratulations, Don, nicely done once again. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

Congratulations, Don, nicely done once again. 

Thank you, RodneyS. Great job. Many thanks to @Roger Smith for running this fun contest.

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, I think that you two are the gold standard of this forecast contest and we all have a challenge to meet those standards. Good luck to everyone in 2022,