HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. I wouldn't bail based on that, but confidence is shaken. Kevin just shook a little deep in REM sleep, It seems like atmospheric flow is slightly outpacing models in terms of real weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Not feeling this one right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Euro is a small snow event. Kind of seasons in seasons like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 It seems that the 4-8" lock was a little rusty and had become brittle. On the upside, it's Thanksgiving. Have a great one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 06z GFS is an advisory type event for a lot of SNE. The overnight runs haven’t been going quite as hard with the northern stream. That’s why we’re seeing some weaker solutions. But that doesn’t mean those are locked in...it’s still really close to being a powderkeg there as we bring the shortwave near us. You really need to track that vort under LI to get the higher end solutions. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Nothing has changed in a couple days as far as overall look . Still like the 4-8” idea. Not as much at coast but they’ll get a little 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 The ridge out west has little amplitude. So I guess it’s not a surprise the s/w can’t dig on current guidance. Kind of progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Well it is officially Thanksgiving. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 6z Euro is weak and sloppy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: 6z Euro is weak and sloppy “You kids like em schloppy don’t ya?” 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: “You kids like em schloppy don’t ya?” Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Maybe Lady you’re scaring us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z Euro is weak and sloppy Mid range weakening /losing of the storm…happens every time like clockwork. Doesn’t mean it’ll come back to something more organized in later runs, but this almost always seems to happen in this time range. In fact you pretty much have to expect this when tracking a potential from 6 days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Mid range weakening /losing of the storm…happens every time like clockwork. Doesn’t mean it’ll come back to something more organized in later runs, but this almost always seems to happen in this time range. In fact you pretty much have to expect this when tracking a potential from 6 days out. I agree Happens in every storm NAO is negative and rising and PNA is positive but dropping. Usually an indication of a storm . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 No shock the eps is also paltry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I agree Happens in every storm NAO is negative and rising and PNA is positive but dropping. Usually an indication of a storm . Very true. And it happens 99% of the time. Models will completely lose the storm, Dampen it out to almost nothing it seems. Inherent flaw in the modeling at this time range? Who knows? But it always seems to happen. Maybe it goes to shit, but this certainly isn’t the first time we’ve seen this type of blip in the midrange modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 That euro ptype map is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 She gone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 06z euro would likely blossom more precip in SNE if we could see another couple panels. The main ULL/shortwave is still out over BUF at that point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 The overnight model runs kind of took the stuffing out of the bird. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: The overnight model runs kind of took the stuffing out of the bird. We are hoping for some white meat. Anything else is gravy. Mashed potatoes would be nice though 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: The overnight model runs kind of took the stuffing out of the bird. Sure did... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: The overnight model runs kind of took the stuffing out of the bird. Not in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 9 hours ago, dryslot said: Day 5 jacks is not the place to be. Day 5 jacks aren't even worth discussing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: Day 5 jacks aren't even worth discussing But they do get discussed as does all weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: But they do get discussed as does all weather. oh I know BUT the jack area usually changes run to run and/or disappears altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: oh I know BUT the jack area usually changes run to run and/or disappears altogether. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z GFS is an advisory type event for a lot of SNE. The overnight runs haven’t been going quite as hard with the northern stream. That’s why we’re seeing some weaker solutions. But that doesn’t mean those are locked in...it’s still really close to being a powderkeg there as we bring the shortwave near us. You really need to track that vort under LI to get the higher end solutions. We're still talking a feature that is over no-man's land in the NE Pac. We're pretty much relying on just satellite sampling to get a handle on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: We're still talking a feature that is over no-man's land in the NE Pac. We're pretty much relying on just satellite sampling to get a handle on it. When will it get better sampled? 0z tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We're still talking a feature that is over no-man's land in the NE Pac. We're pretty much relying on just satellite sampling to get a handle on it. THIS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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