40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Day 5 jacks is not the place to be. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ICON sucked Not sayin you are …but wouldn’t sweat it coming from that model. I bothered to follow it closer last winter and fwiw its correction tendency was rather high outside of 48 or so hrs. It’s basically a meso scale model on roids the way it’s description sounds. It kind of reminded me of the DGEX behavior frankly from years ago, watching it last year because it would often have these magnificent looking bombs nonother model did at 108 hrs, or be a flat bias when all the other models were working something more significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 I give the Icon next to no weight on any threats, Model candy pretty much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 North south east west by enough to distract are all solutions within the realm of possibility at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Works for me I kind of want things to slow down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS has 42 at your summit this coming week Skiing the glades by next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Certainly has potential. A Turkey Day tracka', a contenda I tell ya' Happy Thanksgiving to all you fine folk! Fun to have something to watch. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sayin you are …but wouldn’t sweat it coming from that model. I bothered to follow it closer last winter and fwiw its correction tendency was rather high outside of 48 or so hrs. It’s basically a meso scale model on roids the way it’s description sounds. It kind of reminded me of the DGEX behavior frankly from years ago, watching it last year because it would often have these magnificent looking bombs nonother model did at 108 hrs, or be a flat bias when all the other models were working something more significant Yea, I was just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie If it’s cold enough, that’s a shellacking here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie Yesterdays run, Check the date stamp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If it’s cold enough, that’s a shellacking here Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 UkieLooks like last nights run. Init 0Z Wed. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Sorry guys Ukie shows nothing at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 0z Ukie is a whifffafa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0z Ukie is a whifffafa. Fleeting deep troughs and progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Canadian is a nothing burger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 If the ensembles bail, then I'd worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Two schools as I bug out for the holiday 1. This is the perfunctory ‘model outage’ of entering middle range. 2. be leery that most phenomenon tend to get normalized/damped as outer range turns near Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Fleeting deep troughs and progressive pattern. Most of the model ensemble members have been to the east, So i'm not shocked some of these op runs are there too, But were still a few days out before we see where this will eventually track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 Looks just like the UK. If the ens followed, I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 Where did the mean trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Prior run of GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 Ensemble mean looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If the ensembles bail, then I'd worry. 4 days out ? This looks like a nice storm for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: 4 days out ? This looks like a nice storm for your area. Ens mean is pretty important 4 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ensemble mean looks similar. Seems to be a lot of spread but hard to make any new decisions yet based on tonight’s run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Seems to be a lot of spread but hard to make any new decisions yet based on tonight’s run. Agree. I wouldn't bail based on that, but confidence is shaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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