ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: You guys got those 2 Aprils events that got ya to normal. We just missed those here in NYC Feb 5th was also a huge storm for E MA. Like 8-12” of paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: 18z GEFS show a lot of whiffs. Tips "correction vector" doesn't bode well. Hopefully we'll see a better clustering of them closer in with the 00z run That hypothetical’s actually pointed in favor… The ballast of the mass fields that are relevant to the scenario, those being timing the progressive positive PNA with a -NAO …just getting ready to reverse phases tends to place a storm track from the Del Marva to east of Cape Cod - that’s the ‘vector’ in that facet. I think that what we’re seeing is a coalescence in that favor albeit slowly - but day five that’s understandable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Feb 5th was also a huge storm for E MA. Like 8-12” of paste. I love that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I would hope there’s nooone surprised at this turning into a moderate to perhaps significant event. As soon as we saw multi model/ensemble agreement yesterday.. this went from “sniffing out” a SNE event to “honing in” on amounts . I just took a top down view and felt at least.. a solid 4-8” event for SNE was very likely LOL Moderate IS significant … What are you saying? It’s not important unless it’s massive haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 “Looks like we all go snowless right thru Xmas. An abysmal start to what looks like may be a ratter” Hmmmmm (although just yesterday I thought there would be nothing for 2 weeks-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Feb 5th was also a huge storm for E MA. Like 8-12” of paste. one of my favorite storms of all time, just because of how it snuck up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: “Looks like we all go snowless right thru Xmas. An abysmal start to what looks like may be a ratter” Hmmmmm (although just yesterday I thought there would be nothing for 2 weeks-) There are some other "very nervous" gems mixed in there, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 If we can get H5 to close off around or just south of Long Island this will be a pretty solid event for a good part of the region (obviously with time of year typical caveats will apply towards the coast). Phasing of the two s/w's will be key too but even if we don't see phasing...that nrn stream is significant enough to where it may be able to compensate (i.e. tracking over or just south of Long Island). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are some other "very nervous" gems mixed in there, too. Big win for you if this comes through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If we can get H5 to close off around or just south of Long Island this will be a pretty solid event for a good part of the region (obviously with time of year typical caveats will apply towards the coast). Phasing of the two s/w's will be key too but even if we don't see phasing...that nrn stream is significant enough to where it may be able to compensate (i.e. tracking over or just south of Long Island). Any severe potential? Talk dirty, dirty, filthy rotten lapse rates to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Big win for you if this comes through. Eh, not really...check back in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Any severe potential? Talk dirty, dirty, filthy rotten lapse rates to me Several waterspouts likely a few hundred miles SE of the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 If the ridge axis in the West was maybe a couple hundred miles farther west...or maybe not even this would probably be one heck of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If the ridge axis in the West was maybe a couple hundred miles farther west...or maybe not even this would probably be one heck of a storm Sucks don't it though, But its early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 That UKMET dropped 14 dam in like 9 hrs as the 500mb core goes straight across ~ NYC-PWM thered be a nasty band or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If the ridge axis in the West was maybe a couple hundred miles farther west...or maybe not even this would probably be one heck of a storm Unless the NAO ridge remained in place longer, it would probably go through ORH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Big win for you if this comes through. I wonder if your boy Fisher will autograph his P sunny forecast for Monday from today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: The GGEM will always be my long lost love. There will be one GGEM run with a monster deform band from like ALB to BTV in every coastal event. GFS has 42 at your summit this coming week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Sucks don't it though, But its early. I'm just looking at the 18z GFS now but per that solution you almost wonder if it's not totally accurate with it's surface depiction. Here is 6z Monday. H5 is closed off over PA. But then look at the SLP. I would expect a sfc low more southwest and probably a bit more consolidated and stronger based off this look along with the jet structure. One thing to note though is it is generating a ton of convection which if accurate would impact development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm just looking at the 18z GFS now but per that solution you almost wonder if it's not totally accurate with it's surface depiction. Here is 6z Monday. H5 is closed off over PA. But then look at the SLP. I would expect a sfc low more southwest and probably a bit more consolidated and stronger based off this look along with the jet structure. One thing to note though is it is generating a ton of convection which if accurate would impact development. Its not totally closed and elongated some east so that would affect it at the surface, Convection always plays a roll as well as latent heat release out ahead on the final track, But were still a few cycles away from the outcome obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its not totally closed and elongated some east so that would affect it at the surface, Convection always plays a roll as well as latent heat release out ahead on the final track, But were still a few cycles away from the outcome obviously. yeah not totally closed. just a bit weird looking. favoring the convection possibly...but way too far out to probably focus on that too much. For this time range there's lots of favorable pieces and movement which is good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Feb 5th was also a huge storm for E MA. Like 8-12” of paste. I remember that one…. We got 1” while LI and SNE got much more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yeah not totally closed. just a bit weird looking. favoring the convection possibly...but way too far out to probably focus on that too much. For this time range there's lots of favorable pieces and movement which is good to see. Lot of moving parts, No phase, Partial phase has been the theme so far, Just a much better time to track then HHH, But i know you like the convective side of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 This is really a Clipper … just knifing down a tad east of climo. I wonder if there might be thunder around the Lakes as those jet mechanics cone over top because there’s a pocket of good low to mid level cold lapse rates on the left exit-entrance axis …meanwhile the lakes are still relatively warm. Happened in Cleveland in Novie ‘86 … It’s like that only rotated. Anyway just a thought Reasonable continuity in the new NAM …albeit the NAM way out there There’s a pig ton of wind loading still dumping into the trough north west of Minnesota coming over the ridge arc in this run though it would likely carve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Lot of moving parts, No phase, Partial phase has been the theme so far, Just a much better time to track then HHH, But i know you like the convective side of weather. eh I love tracking both. I do love tracking potential snowstorms and snow but it's just not the same as it used to be...mostly b/c I don't get to enjoy it like I used to and don't have the energy to stay up at night and look at models. At least for me...when there is a potential event hinging on phasing I am extremely intrigued. When phasing is a huge player, I try not to get obsessed with model run-to-model run or get caught up in details. All I care about is that models continue the theme of a potential phase and that window for phasing opportunity is there. Once inside of 48-72 hours I'll start to really hope to see a consistent theme of phasing. But in the event of Sunday/Monday there is alot to really like (in terms of storm potential): 1. Changes within the state of the PNA/NAO (good for East Coast cyclogenesis) 2. Favorable jet structure and dynamics 3. Abundance of moisture influx 4. Cold air available Now it's just piecing things together. Maybe it doesn't totally work given the time of year but I'll take these key pieces all winter long and go from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 ICON sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Gfs gets going a bit later and East… should be less impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 H5 was really impressive. Let's get this to go further south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Ray or maybe north of ray would like that run, as would Northern ORH…… not going to cut it for most though, especially around and south of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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