dryslot Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The 3k will easily spit out 48"+ for the peaks once it covers both the upslope event and the coastal. Can always go higher too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Correct me if I am mistaken but aren’t the solutions that we have seen over the past couple days purely northern stream driven, with the southern energy lagging behind too far for it to get involved? I feel like the most recent runs have moved closer to getting that involved. Ptype would be a risk, but if we can get that northern branch to dig a little more, slow down a bit while the southern energy ejects faster, would that increase the ceiling? I would think if that happens we see a deeper, slower moving low with more precip, wind, and maybe even the possibility the the low creates it’s own cold air via dynamical cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The 3k will easily spit out 48"+ for the peaks once it covers both the upslope event and the coastal. Yeah it loves printing out big QPF when it thinks the peaks are in the cloud getting rimed up. Just inches and inches of QPF when sometimes all it means is a peak is above it's forecast cloud layer, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 20 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The 3k will easily spit out 48"+ for the peaks once it covers both the upslope event and the coastal. It's always fun when the NAM sucks powderfreak in on a single 18z run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It's always fun when the NAM sucks powderfreak in on a single 18z run. Sacrificing virgins and throwing them off the granite massif when the ARW solutions didn’t happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's always fun when the NAM sucks powderfreak in on a single 18z run. The GGEM will always be my long lost love. There will be one GGEM run with a monster deform band from like ALB to BTV in every coastal event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 I would hope there’s nooone surprised at this turning into a moderate to perhaps significant event. As soon as we saw multi model/ensemble agreement yesterday.. this went from “sniffing out” a SNE event to “honing in” on amounts . I just took a top down view and felt at least.. a solid 4-8” event for SNE was very likely 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Sacrificing virgins and throwing them off the granite massif when the ARW solutions didn’t happen. Those NMM bastards always leaking to the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Those NMM bastards always leaking to the east. Honest to God there was one point in 15/16 when I started to worry about you. You started mumbling about how you “looked up at the mountain and said I know you’re doing your job, it’s not your fault..” or something like that. I swear I’m not embellishing lol. You were just dumbfounded and for good reason that season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 I will take a few wet flakes and run. Hell, I still need to mow my lawn! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoth said: I will take a few wet flakes and run. Hell, I still need to mow my lawn! I just want to get on the board. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I just want to get on the board. You're in a much better spot than I am. I feel you've got a decent shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Honest to God there was one point in 15/16 when I started to worry about you. You started mumbling about how you “looked up at the mountain and said I know you’re doing your job, it’s not your fault..” or something like that. I swear I’m not embellishing lol. You were just dumbfounded and for good reason that season. I’m still in therapy from that winter. I think we had a late April overrunning event that left like 3-6” in the valley and I still remember our Mtn Ops text group wondering if it was the most snow that fell in one continuous slug of precip that winter. People wondering legitimately if 4-5” was the most snow in a single fall where they live. Of course those bad winters “attempt” to snow late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's always fun when the NAM sucks powderfreak in on a single 18z run. He usually sits back in these coastal threat threads and takes a faux detached view when we all know he is checking every run and will end up with a foot anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Honest to God there was one point in 15/16 when I started to worry about you. You started mumbling about how you “looked up at the mountain and said I know you’re doing your job, it’s not your fault..” or something like that. I swear I’m not embellishing lol. You were just dumbfounded and for good reason that season. I wonder how J. Spin was holding up that season. He is the most zen of the NNE crew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: He usually sits back in these coastal threat threads and takes a faux detached view when we all know he is checking every run and will end up with a foot anyway. The legend of powderfreak really started to materialize in 2014-2015 winter when Boston got about 100” in 3 weeks. He started off posting a random ARW or GGEM run as a joke but by the time we got to the 3rd or 4th monster event he would post them more frequently and with text that sounded more forced/desperate. He would play it off as a joke but we all secretly started worrying. Then the next season happens and we’re all wondering if the next event is the one that does him in. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I wonder how J. Spin was holding up that season. He is the most zen of the NNE crew. My guess is he lit his snowboard on fire. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I’m still in therapy from that winter. I think we had a late April overrunning event that left like 3-6” in the valley and I still remember our Mtn Ops text group wondering if it was the most snow that fell in one continuous slug of precip that winter. People wondering legitimately if 4-5” was the most snow in a single fall where they live. Of course those bad winters “attempt” to snow late. That was brutal. And yet I snuck in normal snow that winter iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The legend of powderfreak really started to materialize in 2014-2015 winter when Boston got about 100” in 3 weeks. He started off posting a random ARW or GGEM run as a joke but by the time we got to the 3rd or 4th monster event he would post them more frequently and with text that sounded more forced/desperate. He would play it off as a joke but we all secretly started worrying. Then the next season happens and we’re all wondering if the next event is the one that does him in. Ha yeah, started as a joke and got awfully real in a hurry. That was also when Eyewall moved to Vermont and BTV went like 2 full years (!) without a 6" or greater event. Dude had more snow in Raleigh where he moved from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I’m still in therapy from that winter. I think we had a late April overrunning event that left like 3-6” in the valley and I still remember our Mtn Ops text group wondering if it was the most snow that fell in one continuous slug of precip that winter. People wondering legitimately if 4-5” was the most snow in a single fall where they live. Of course those bad winters “attempt” to snow late. Crazy how that was a disaster of a winter for you and that storm that hit that year was the biggest snowstorm in recorded history in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was brutal. And yet I snuck in normal snow that winter iirc. 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Crazy how that was a disaster of a winter for you and that storm that hit that year was the biggest snowstorm in recorded history in NYC Yup that's what had us all up north so shook. Like missing out on the all-time stuff in 2014-15 was like, ok that happens... then '15-16 followed which was by far the worst winter in modern history in the mountains of NNE but yet in a terrible pattern some good events were rolling through NYC to BOS... that's when it started to get inside our heads haha. We couldn't even get ice to form at times it seemed and then you see some random event leave 12-15" through the heart of CT and it was like wtf is going on. Did climate change just "break" climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I would hope there’s nooone surprised at this turning into a moderate to perhaps significant event. As soon as we saw multi model/ensemble agreement yesterday.. this went from “sniffing out” a SNE event to “honing in” on amounts . I just took a top down view and felt at least.. a solid 4-8” event for SNE was very likely Who is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yup that's what had us all up north so shook. Like missing out on the all-time stuff in 2014-15 was like, ok that happens... then '15-16 followed which was by far the worst winter in modern history in the mountains of NNE but yet in a terrible pattern some good events were rolling through NYC to BOS... that's when it started to get inside our heads haha. We couldn't even get ice to form at times it seemed and then you see some random event leave 12-15" through the heart of CT and it was like wtf is going on. Did climate change just "break" climo? That ended up the best storm of the season that winter. Finished with 29” and the rest of the winter got 11” of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was brutal. And yet I snuck in normal snow that winter iirc. You guys got those 2 Aprils events that got ya to normal. We just missed those here in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, dmillz25 said: You guys got those 2 Aprils events that got ya to normal. We just missed those here in NYC Yeah that edged me a tad above. They were fun events too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that edged me a tad above. They were fun events too. What do you avg there a year? 42”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Clown range on 18z NAM but that is the type of look you want with the northern stream really digging so that it catches up with the OH valley shortwave. I’d like the rollout S/W ridge to continue to improve structure … given recent multi cycle trend I’m fine to believe it will but it’s crucial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 19 minutes ago, PhineasC said: He usually sits back in these coastal threat threads and takes a faux detached view when we all know he is checking every run and will end up with a foot anyway. You're starting to get there by liking the consistency of upslope snow (lack of model swings)... that realization is the first step. Upslope threats are fairly consistent and will snow, just a matter of how much. Whereas synoptic storms vary wildly from run to run. You start to love the consistency of certain set-ups vs. the unmanned firehose style of synoptic. I know where we sit though on the NW side of New England when it comes to coastal storms. It's like living in CT during a SWFE. Sometimes it's very snowy but you also know what climo is for those set ups. Someone else is likely going to get more and you just enjoy being included in the event . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 hours ago, Henry's Weather said: 18z GFS's evolution is functionally identical to the ICON, which the low closing off in Central PA and swinging eastward. Pretty sweet look. Yeah that was fun ICON movie for the ORH Hills. CCB coming in at climo direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: What do you avg there a year? 42”? Ha now? Probably like Logan now. Near 50” with the new 30 yr. I had 44.5” 15-16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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