Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Would like to see other mesos and HRRR show this. There it is. I knew it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There it is. I knew it Usually when you do that, it’s your passive aggressive way to wish it all out and then have it go to shit from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 All of a sudden it’s snowing here….nice to see. Just Too bad it’s not gonna amount to anything. But nice to see nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 It's interesting how these IVT snow scenarios are like buck-shot in models. That may be last untamed frontier in forecast modeling performance, and that's where the IVT targets. The last 36 hours of models made this painfully clear that it wouldn't be a classic cyclone impact, but at the time ... IVT entered the discussion by spraying solutions everywhere. I remember this back all the way to the 1990s. I think there was a Norlun ( or IVT ...if there's a difference there), that gave PWM like 18 to 24" overnight on a headline graphic that had white states... oops. But models back in the day used to start sniffing the possibility out, and then every run would reposition the axis of QPF south of previous... If it came into the 60 hour range on you, it was an ordeal that verified south after pivoting that way in future guidance. It doesn't seem that sort of 'error prediction' happened here. It's been NYC, Berks... NE Mass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 There's a NORLUN checklist ... shit, I used to have that on an old OS.. But that NAM QPF just looks like a NORLUN meso band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 3k was pretty big too. Need to see some other guidance get in board though. Euro has been extremely paltry which is a red flag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Usually when you do that, it’s your passive aggressive way to wish it all out and then have it go to shit from here. Not a all. I don’t ever wish snow away from people I’ve been posting for a few days this looked like a possible IVT. SNE does well with these early season deals . Of course , I’ll get nothing, but hope you guys do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 3k actually spreads the amounts around more… hits Plymouth county pretty hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Oh it's most like a phantom event's reach-around puge tug while pulling out, no doubt. But it would be nice to see the Euro be oblivious to an event that is "10 KM" in grid spacing. heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's a NORLUN checklist ... shit, I used to have that on an old OS.. But that NAM QPF just looks like a NORLUN meso band Very old school but it’s on page two here http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Very old school but it’s on page two here http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf yeah yeah that's it! cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Well we have our first accumulation a dusting has been recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 oh, coming back to me. It's also based on the defunct NGM ... Man, I can't believe the NGM's been turned off that long. I don't know if this immediately applicable to the NAM .. I suspect it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's interesting how these IVT snow scenarios are like buck-shot in models. That may be last untamed frontier in forecast modeling performance, and that's where the IVT targets. The last 36 hours of models made this painfully clear that it wouldn't be a classic cyclone impact, but at the time ... IVT entered the discussion by spraying solutions everywhere. I remember this back all the way to the 1990s. I think there was a Norlun ( or IVT ...if there's a difference there), that gave PWM like 18 to 24" overnight on a headline graphic that had white states... oops. But models back in the day used to start sniffing the possibility out, and then every run would reposition the axis of QPF south of previous... If it came into the 60 hour range on you, it was an ordeal that verified south after pivoting that way in future guidance. It doesn't seem that sort of 'error prediction' happened here. It's been NYC, Berks... NE Mass... March 1992. Just a classic bust forecast. Forecast was clear at 9 PM on Thursday, then went from occasional flurries at 6 PM on Friday to 10-15 in the PWM area by 4 AM Sat. 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Very old school but it’s on page two here http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf Essentially the primary difference between an inverted trof and a NORLUN is the near stationary aspect of a NORLUN. Kind of like a square/rectangle argument. All NORULNs are inverted trofs, but not all inverted trofs are NORLUNs (there are some temp difference and moisture requirements, but most of those are typically met with inverted trofs anyway). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That’s great it scores well on the spread sheets at 500. But the results at the surface aren’t as sexy. Looks great at H5. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Looks great at H5. If only we can shovel at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If only we can shovel at h5. We have not been able to figure the hostile conditions there for a livelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 This is the real fake snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: March 1992. Just a classic bust forecast. Forecast was clear at 9 PM on Thursday, then went from occasional flurries at 6 PM on Friday to 10-15 in the PWM area by 4 AM Sat. Essentially the primary difference between an inverted trof and a NORLUN is the near stationary aspect of a NORLUN. Kind of like a square/rectangle argument. All NORULNs are inverted trofs, but not all inverted trofs are NORLUNs (there are some temp difference and moisture requirements, but most of those are typically met with inverted trofs anyway). Yeah, I knew there was a subtler distinction between the two ( lazy ) but that's good rule of thumb re the stationary aspect. Interesting. But that bust was funny... man, "clear" - haha. That may be on par or even exceed the extraordinary Dec 23 1997, for me ... the first greatest bust of all personal witness'! And thankfully .. it was a "positive" bust. Night before official for Worcester MA up through Concord NH axis went something similar to, "Tonight: Increasingly clouds. Low in the upper 20s. Saturday, lights snow early, accumulating 1-3, mixing with rain, ending in the afternoon. High in the mid 30s" What happened? 18 to 24" with some towns getting 8 of that in a single hour, temperatures hammered down to mid 20s ... not mid 30s. The 2nd greatest bust of all personal witness notoriety was that infamous 48 hour in advance Blizzard Warning fiasco of Jan 1987 --> flurries NW of Boston through sun dimly visible. And the coup de grace was the 9F 32 mph wind gust walk to school that morning of "national guard on notice"... kidding but, that would be a negative bust, if anyone needs that defined - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This is the real fake snow. Yes by how many people get faked out by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: March 1992. Just a classic bust forecast. Forecast was clear at 9 PM on Thursday, then went from occasional flurries at 6 PM on Friday to 10-15 in the PWM area by 4 AM Sat. Essentially the primary difference between an inverted trof and a NORLUN is the near stationary aspect of a NORLUN. Kind of like a square/rectangle argument. All NORULNs are inverted trofs, but not all inverted trofs are NORLUNs (there are some temp difference and moisture requirements, but most of those are typically met with inverted trofs anyway). At least that one was a positive one, There was one a few years back and i can't remember the date (you may) that was forecast i think for 6+" and we never saw a flake, But a bust is a bust either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Nice. Snowing sideways! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Sorry its sideways, but we have a dusting on the grill cover lol. And snowing steadily. Looks pretty and very festive for the start of the holiday season this weekend at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 ARWs gone wild too. It feels like PF viewing it lol. Can’t really buy until others show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Reggie not buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie not buying. Here’s the good news. Reggie has been Chris Davis since 2014-15. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Actually snowing moderate to heavy here now. We take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Here’s the good news. Reggie has been Chris Davis since 2014-15. Ya Reggie is a farce now for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Here’s the good news. Reggie has been Chris Davis since 2014-15. But those mesos look like a Ron Washington bender. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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