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November 28-29 Storm Threat


40/70 Benchmark
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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is more correctable than the N stream not digging.

I agree to give it through 12z, but getting to be a long shot at this point...too bad, above climo shot for a nice Novie snowfall just hasn't panned out....yet.

Mail this one in and enjoy your 1-2” there tonight. It’ll give you an early lead on me out the gate 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You could see when it was already closed at 500 over the lakes, it was gonna be fun. That’s warning hit inland and into NNE. Hell even here 1-2” of flash freeze shit.

Yeah that’s the key. Getting that northern stream to send the vort to our south while going neutral tilt before it reaches us. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key was getting Kevin to mail it in.

If it comes back he will have gone from no snow through Xmas, to 4-8”, to just flurries and then back to a hit again in a span of 3 days....

If we’re ever running a forecasting clinic, we could put that 3 day set of posts together as a perfect example of what NOT to do. It will be like those cheesy videos we used to have to watch in school in health class or something where they show some dumb kids deciding to drink or do drugs but the acting is horrible. Instead we’ll just use Kevin’s posts in place of the horrible actor. 

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Hard to know for certain if it's our collective hyper-focus, or if it is really this way ... but this Clipper's meaningfulness is coming down to excruciating nuances ... It's like the more focused one gets, they disappear too - haha, the electron double-slit phenomenon in the models - 

 

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Interval comparison of the this 12z NAM run vs the prior two ... the defining difference to me isn't the strength of the N-stream. The wind momentum in either run's rendition isn't discernibly different, even down to the nuanced level.  

The difference between this 12z version, vs the prior two, is the timing in free space. 

The prior two runs have the best assessed N-stream trough axis ~ midway between Buffalo and Detroit longitude, where as this 12z run lagged back of eastern Michigan.

That variance is opening up the wave-spacing wrt the surroundings - the closed 528 dm isohypses over the Lakes at 51 hours is likely more for that reason of increased spatial ownership in the flow for one. 

But the 2nd aspect is the clipper mechanics have 6 or so more hours to go to work before leaving the region ... coastal response ends up further west.

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