November 28-29 Storm Threat

[moneypitmike]

30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

how about the chance of 12 to 18 next weekend? odds on that one? lol

As long as it comes in after I land in BOS Saturday afternoon, bring it on.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[weathafella]

Maybe a little snow...and if not next time.   We all made the mistake of buying d5-6 consensus in modeling as real indication that this would be big.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe a little snow...and if not next time.   We all made the mistake of buying d5-6 consensus in modeling as real indication that this would be big.   

I think people bought the notion that there was a viable threat of a storm, but I didn't see any numbers tossed around. I know I didn't...just speculated on potential for a plowable snowfall.

[Chrisrotary12]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe a little snow...and if not next time.  We all made the mistake of buying d5-6 consensus in modeling as real indication that this would be big.   

I don’t think we all bought into the D5-D6 solutions. Just a few of the overly optimistic.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not the widely called for 4-8” , but I think most will be happy to grab 1-3” before the late week torch 

Sunday night...

Best chances of precipitation as the trough digs into the Mid
Atlantic/Upstate NY. In response to the trough digging in the
secondary low deepens and lifts over or east of eastern MA. How
quickly/deep/close this low develops to the region will determine
the impacts. Did bump up snowfall amounts slightly from the previous
forecast given the clustering of EPS members along with the NAM and
other high resolution guidance with respect to the low pressure
center developing closer. If things trend in this direction then
totals will need to be increased further, but if a further offshore
solution is the way things go then amounts will need to be lowered.
Can see this in the WPC Super Ensemble Plume guidance with a
somewhat bimodal distribution, but most members cluster in the
lower totals. Most locations anticipated to see up to an inch of
snowfall accumulation away from the coast and perhaps 2 inches
across the higher terrain in the eastern slopes of the
Berkshires. The coastal plain should see little if any snowfall
accumulation given Ptype will mostly be rain and perhaps some
snow mixing in due to the coastal front.

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think people bought the notion that there was a viable threat of a storm, but I didn't see any numbers tossed around. I know I didn't...just speculated on potential for a plowable snowfall.

All of us presumed it would be more than currently progged-or at least I did.

[Spanks45]

RGEM still has the inverted trough, just shifted eastward....NAMs aren't very interested

[Damage In Tolland]

And finally on Nov 27th.. the Oaks are done shedding. What an awful and extremely late season . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

All of us presumed it would be more than currently progged-or at least I did.

I thought there was a chance of a plowable snowfall for a portion of the region, which is now unlikely to work out.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought there was a chance of a plowable snowfall for a portion of the region, which is now unlikely to work out.

Well most towns and cities plow 1-3”

[ORH_wxman]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well most towns and cities plow 1-3”

I’d sign on the dotted line for 1-3” from this threat right now. It’s unlikely we see more than flurries or a coating at this point. It’s too bad the lead shortwave is stealing the baroclinic zone. It screws us over because that second shortwave digging behind it is quite potent and likely would have produced a nice solid advisory event if the lead one wasn’t there. 

This will mostly just be an upslope enhancer in NNE and not much else. 

[ineedsnow]

RGEM is nuts but likely wrong 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d sign on the dotted line for 1-3” from this threat right now. It’s unlikely we see more than flurries or a coating at this point. It’s too bad the lead shortwave is stealing the baroclinic zone. It screws us over because that second shortwave digging behind it is quite potent and likely would have produced a nice solid advisory event if the lead one wasn’t there. 

This will mostly just be an upslope enhancer in NNE and not much else. 

I still firmly believe an IVT shows it’s face . Who knows where, but these late Nov/ early Dec setups like this over the years have delivered them. It seems SNE is more favorable Early season 

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

RGEM is nuts but likely wrong 

RGEM dumps on Kevins bald head.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

RGEM dumps on Kevins bald head.

Keeps shifting east . Tomorrow’s will be right over E MA. Watch 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And finally on Nov 27th.. the Oaks are done shedding. What an awful and extremely late season . 

I am glad we didn’t get any snow in Greenfield last night, I can get a yard clean up in tomorrow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am glad we didn’t get any snow in Greenfield last night, I can get a yard clean up in tomorrow. 

I did my last one in the rain at 8:00 yesterday AM.

[dryslot]

It will keep shifting east then due south in the toilet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well most towns and cities plow 1-3”

3" maybe, and most won't see that.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

3" maybe, and most won't see that.

I don’t know any towns that won’t plow 1-2” off roads 

[powderfreak]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

3" maybe, and most won't see that.

3” was plowed here this morning because it was dense.  They wouldn’t do that if it was pure fluff.  I think the density and situation matters.

1-2” will be plowed in suburbia if it’s sloppy.  I also think towns in many populated areas feel the need to show action, so they loop plows no matter the amount.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

RGEM is nuts but likely wrong 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t know any towns that won’t plow 1-2” off roads 

I doubt there is a single town in Franklin Co that will plow less than 2-3"   They just don't have those kind of snow budgets.

[dryslot]

19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I doubt there is a single town in Franklin Co that will plow less than 2-3"   They just don't have those kind of snow budgets.

Yes, But they will salt/sand the crap out of it.

[MJO812]

It's going to snow down here soon 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t know any towns that won’t plow 1-2” off roads 

 

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Yes, But they will salt/sand the crap out of it.

 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Love how each model says this stuff…The Euro, the UKMET, now the Canadian.  I mean if you listen to each of them…they’re all the best, and beat everything/and always beat The GFS. 
 

It’s all a play on words/and twist on stats!  What a dam joke. 

[Hoth]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It's going to snow down here soon 

First flakes are on the books!

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Love how each model says this stuff…The Euro, the UKMET, now the Canadian.  I mean if you listen to each of them…they’re all the best, and beat everything/and always beat The GFS. 
 

It’s all a play on words/and twist on stats!  What a dam joke. 

That’s great it scores well on the spread sheets at 500. But the results at the surface aren’t as sexy.