TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 12:41 PM, George001 said: My forecast: eastern mass- 12-18 iso 24 central and western mass: 6-12 i haven’t seen any reason to change it yet. I'd ban you 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I know what you mean/meant but I still don't like that turn of phrase there ( bold ), lol. I mean ...duh, 'expectations' But, rules are made to be broken - I think the folks in here that have a toe hold on reality know that its rarer this early. Climate for the lay-person: does not dictate the daily anomaly. One needs to look at each situation uniquely, and keep 'climate' as the sum of events divided by n-terms in annual assessment at the end of the cold seasons where it belongs. There was was just never support for 18-24"...no need to delve any deeper than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There was was just never support for 18-24"...no need to delve any deeper than that. We will be lucky to get 2-4” if this thing gets it’s act together, with maybe a little more in the higher elevations or where good dynamics setup. And that’s a big IF… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'd ban you I'd find him some help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 12z Euro taking a step in the right direction, Trough a little sharper and a tic or two further west at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: 12z Euro taking a step in the right direction, Trough a little sharper. Wonder if it will be like the GEM and UK and be to no avail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wonder if it will be like the GEM and UK and be to no avail... It did clip the Mid coast to DE Maine this run where it was just flurries at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Euro perhaps a pube more interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 Eh, pubes don't interest me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 About an inch or two for eastern areas of SNE with another enhanced area up in NW MA and S VT with 2-3” on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eh, pubes don't interest me. Brazilian? (not the weather model) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: About an inch or two for eastern areas of SNE with another enhanced area up in NW MA and S VT with 2-3” on the euro. Can’t be disappointed if that pans out. A few weeks from now yes but not now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eh, pubes don't interest me. That’s not what pickles said… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 I think in this particular hemispheric canvas, if there's going to be a water-shed model run it's tonight's 00z that would be it. ...Altho, 18z's cycle may benefit from any augmented ingest. Relay is fast off the Pacific ...coming in on a narrow trajectory - historically, that's not exactly lending to improved model performance. The 00z run was still based off the scaffolding of assimilation over the ocean - in theory.. 12z has that nosing over land. The 00z Euro goes from positive tilt to this 12z airing more potency in neutral, with nuanced improvement in cyclone tendencies sooner ( I suspect ) for a reason. As we've hammered for a week... tho a +PNA, it is flat biased stretched and quite speed saturated. This is more error prone for textured reasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 16 pages??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Can’t be disappointed if that pans out. A few weeks from now yes but not now. Yeah I’ll consider anything > 1” a win this early. There’s going to be more chances too...the pattern looks pretty active over the next 10-12 days. They all won’t be snow chances but probably at least one of them will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Nice cluster NW of the mean still on the 12z EPS. 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 Slipped a hair se, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 18z Nam not backing down from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 NGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Closed off @H5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Happy hour NAM doesn’t disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Similar to 12z. 3K probably would be fun too extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Similar to 12z. 3K probably would be fun too extrapolated. Need another panel on the 3k but even 60 hours is wild 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 12k and 3k matched up pretty close @ H5 at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Need another panel on the 3k but even 60 hours is wild Due north winds at Logan too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Due north winds at Logan too. Things we like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 hours ago, George001 said: Welp, my forecast for 12-18 with an iso 24 in eastern mass is going to bust. Damn it, the gfs was right, it’s usually horrible but I have to give it credit for this one. The North Atlantic blocking did break down faster than I expected, where I went wrong is I overestimated the North Atlantic blocking. The good news is the MJO is expected to go into phase 7 in a couple of weeks. Even that Dec 5 storm looks interesting on the european guidance. Right now it’s too far west, but it wouldn’t take much to get that low to redevelop off the coast and turn into a Miller B. You need to start with the assumption that nothing special will happen with a system, because that's true 95% of the time. Just logically, not every threat can be a "severe blizzard", so why always forecast one? It boggles my mind. I honestly don't understand how you can handle the instability of being so relentlessly "optimistic" about systems, since you're so often wrong. At some point, you'd think you'd become more conservative, just to avoid disappointment. Significant systems are quite rare. Your understanding of a typical SNE winter should not be informed by highly anomalous years like 2014-2015 and 2017-2018, which I'm assuming are some of the years that you grew up on. Learning to dissociate your forecaster self and your snow weenie self as best as you can is a very worthwhile goal. I had to learn this skill, and am still trying to improve in this aspect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Slipped a pube out my teeth but not enough to taste What? Hopefully can get a few inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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