George001 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Although I appreciate your enthusiasm, you do realize that there is zero model support for your snowfall prediction. I don't mean to be harah, but, there us wishful thinking, and there is being realistic. No one will fault you for being overly optomistic, but, its time to face the reality. This storm may bring the area 2"-4" or 3"-6" at best I believe the ceiling is a lot higher, if the northern stream digs more and the southern stream ejects faster, the snow totals on the models will increase. It’s not showing it yet but I believe it is close. The pattern does not favor a progressive solution from what I saw. It favors an amplified one. Maybe it will amplify so much it rains, that’s possible. However just yesterday we saw 1 foot+ on the European guidance in some areas. Even Kevin is sticking with his 4-8 call, and he’s a more conservative forecaster than I am. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Looks like some of us will see more in the next 24 hrs or so then Monday right now. “Some of us” being you, lava, pf, snd phin. Congrats. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Does George have a partly cloudy option? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like some of us will see more in the next 24 hrs or so then Monday right now. Anafrontal love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Looks like shit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 hours ago, OceanStWx said: We had a good one in 2014, and also 2011 (which ended up being the last big one for the season ) 13" in the 2014 event - finally saw a 10"+ snowfall on my 42nd November in Maine. Nine Novembers in Fort Kent produced nothing above 8", then a year after we move south, Nov 1986 brings a 21" dump. While we lived in the north, all the places we had or would live in Maine (BGR, Gardiner, Farmington) had 10'+ storms. Farmington had more during our 13 years in Gardiner. The 2011 storm was close - 9.7" - and was the biggest snowfall of that snow season. Looks like some of us will see more in the next 24 hrs or so then Monday right now. Maybe 1-2 tomorrow night, little or nothing Sun-Mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Gfs is a snow shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 This one seems dead. It's already though the usual "the models lose it in the mid range" period, right? The mesos have the start of this thing now and all are whiffs. GGEM is the only model with a real storm now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like shit. Tell us the truth don't soft pedal it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Maybe change the date on this topic to 11/26 - 11/27 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Maybe change the date on this topic to 11/26 - 11/27 It should get sampled by tomorrow if I am correct ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 She gone till she back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, George001 said: I believe the ceiling is a lot higher, if the northern stream digs more and the southern stream ejects faster, the snow totals on the models will increase. It’s not showing it yet but I believe it is close. The pattern does not favor a progressive solution from what I saw. It favors an amplified one. Maybe it will amplify so much it rains, that’s possible. However just yesterday we saw 1 foot+ on the European guidance in some areas. Even Kevin is sticking with his 4-8 call, and he’s a more conservative forecaster than I am. You and your ceilings...just like your prediction a couple months ago Boston can get 150+" of snow smh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 This thread should be renamed to Nov 26-27 Snow Threat much better chance people see snow tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 40 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Maybe change the date on this topic to 11/26 - 11/27 Just saw this after I posted...I agree! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 hours ago, George001 said: I believe the ceiling is a lot higher, if the northern stream digs more and the southern stream ejects faster, the snow totals on the models will increase. It’s not showing it yet but I believe it is close. The pattern does not favor a progressive solution from what I saw. It favors an amplified one. Maybe it will amplify so much it rains, that’s possible. However just yesterday we saw 1 foot+ on the European guidance in some areas. Even Kevin is sticking with his 4-8 call, and he’s a more conservative forecaster than I am. Pretty sad when I have to give you a weenie.. lol Goodluck though also Happy Thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 18z euro coming back now a bit. That’s a pretty decent look for SNE. Prob a nice advisory stripe of snow. Maybe even low end warning lollis for interior E Ma? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro coming back now a bit. That’s a pretty decent look for SNE. Prob a nice advisory stripe of snow. Maybe even low end warning lollis for interior E Ma? So there is a chance! (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro coming back now a bit. That’s a pretty decent look for SNE. Prob a nice advisory stripe of snow. Maybe even low end warning lollis for interior E Ma? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM looks like kaka now too. Gonna need some reversal of the trend at 00z tonight. We’re not burying that northern stream as much on today’s runs. 3k NAM looks nice for Fri night-Sat am, as does the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, 512high said: So there is a chance! (lol) Well it was the first run in several cycles that deepened the northern stream shortwave further south. So at least for now the trend of it being flatter has stopped which is what we need to get this back to being a bigger deal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Well it was the first run in several cycles that deepened the northern stream shortwave further south. So at least for now the trend of it being flatter has stopped which is what we need to get this back to being a bigger deal. First Happy Thanksgiving! If there is a better signal there at this time tomorrow night I will be more interested ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well it was the first run in several cycles that deepened the northern stream shortwave further south. So at least for now the trend of it being flatter has stopped which is what we need to get this back to being a bigger deal. 12Z had a similar look though. 18Z doesn't look much different if we're talking h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: 12Z had a similar look though. 18Z doesn't look much different if we're talking h5 It’s significantly south imho. It’s enough to matter anyway. Here’s 18z on top and 12z at the bottom at the same time: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It’s significantly south imho. It’s enough to matter anyway. Here’s 18z on top and 12z at the bottom at the same time: Oh I'm talking about tomorrow night. I was like Will's a smart dude but uh it looks very similar lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 I don’t give up until Will does. Although i am 100 miles further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 18z definitely a better look. Still a tight qpf area which may need to be factored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z definitely a better look. Still a tight qpf area which may need to be factored. Don't be such a queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Bump north on the 18z EPS too for Monday from 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Wow, nice cluster of lows tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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