40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Early Season Evolving as Anticipated with First Snowfall Possible Late Sunday Night-Early Monday Early Season Evolving as Anticipated with First Snowfall Possible Late Sunday Night-Early Monday Thus far the latter portion of the autumn has been relatively well behaved in relation to the expectations of Eastern Mass Weather, as the residual positive temperature anomalies from one of the warmest months of October on record led to a fairly mild first half of November. However, the anticipated slight weakening of the polar vortex in conjunction with a marginal abatement of the Pacific jet has indeed lead to the mid month cool down that extend through the balance of November. Eastern Mass Weather November Forecast Composite: Versus verification through the first 2/3 of the month: The vortex will ultimately go through a period of recovery during the early portion of December, which will coincide with a period of milder weather once again to being the month, however, it is this mass flux throughout the polar domain that will also act as a catalyst for a potential winter storm early next week before any potential warm up arrives. Although the weather for the holiday travel period will be relatively benign, it is the return commute to work on Monday morning that may potentially be in peril for some. Potential Post Holiday Storm Monday The primary issue with regard to the potential winter lion at the onset of the 2021-2022 season is just how quickly the transient NAO block and PNA ridge relinquish their respective holds. A more rapid decay of the transient NAO block and/or PNA ridge will allow the two disparate pieces of of energy moving east of the plains on Sunday to remain separate for a longer duration of time. This would result the systems phasing later, further to the east and higher and latitude, which would limit impacts primarily northern New England. However, a faster joining of the respective bundles of energy induced by a slower translation of by one or both of the aforementioned ridges would result in a faster phase lower in latitude, and a messy Monday morning commute for a large portion of southern New England. The most likely solution is somewhat of a compromise with the majority of signifiant snows and delays relegated to north of the Mass turnpike, but undoubtedly a messy Monday morning throughout the entirety of the region. Needless to say, stay tuned and the prudent course of action is to plan for delays Monday morning. First Call Friday if necessary- 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Nice to see the forum getting hyped again for an event. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Lots of pieces/vorts in play…gonna take a while to figure this out. As Scott said, I’ll take a couple inches and be plenty happy. Nice there’s something to track over the holiday too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Timing is tricky. Both in terms of getting things to come together as well as impacts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Clown range on 18z NAM but that is the type of look you want with the northern stream really digging so that it catches up with the OH valley shortwave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Lots of pieces/vorts in play…gonna take a while to figure this out. As Scott said, I’ll take a couple inches and be plenty happy. Nice there’s something to track over the holiday too. Turkey leg in one hand, phone with happy hour GFS in the other? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Icon crushes Boston with a foot of snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon crushes Boston with a foot of snow Tell me bedtime stories 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon crushes Boston with a foot of snow BOS would prob have ptype issues verbatim that run...it's a little tucked, but it annihilates 128 belt and just NW. It's really compact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOS would prob have ptype issues verbatim that run...it's a little tucked, but it annihilates 128 belt and just NW. It's really compact. It's probably not going to be that compact in reality....I feel like the mid levels will be poorly handled, as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's probably not going to be that compact in reality....I feel like the mid levels will be poorly handled, as usual. Agreed....though in a lot of these solutions where the northern stream goes nuts, we get this very tight/tucked circulation near the vortmax where it's closing off aloft....so it wouldn't surprise me if we see a really enhanced area of precip in a narrow stripe if that happened. We saw it in 12/9/05 even though that hit a pretty large area...but a narrow stripe from SE NH to NE and E-central MA got obliterated for a few hours on the rates. But we have a long ways to go to worry about something that specific yet. This could still just be a few snow showers.....but we're trending toward shovelable at least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Icon looks filthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon crushes Boston with a foot of snow I think the Jets use the icon for player evaluations .... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Quicker phase incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 GFS looking stronger and farther S with the northern stream vort at hour 96. Could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 I'm thinking that this might also have P-type issues verbatim for the coast, unless the northern energy keeps digging, which seems dependent on the amplitude of the western ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Sne gets clocked on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 18z GFS's evolution is functionally identical to the ICON, which the low closing off in Central PA and swinging eastward. Pretty sweet look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Man that’s a big run up here. I’m really not prepared for anything like that yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: I'm thinking that this might also have P-type issues verbatim for the coast, unless the northern energy keeps digging, which seems dependent on the amplitude of the western ridge Yeah ptype issues are likely somewhere considering it’s still late November, I am more worried about that than suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 thats a great look for north of pike and inland with the mid level lows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 That's a great track for up here at the surface, Cold is already in place, All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Id like to see the southern energy speed up and the northern stream dig a little more, the way things look right now on the Euro and Canadian guidance, it has 6-12 potential in the jackpot area. However that would be a fairly narrow area, for a bigger storm we need more phasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 That’s a paddling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Man that’s a big run up here. I’m really not prepared for anything like that yet. You and me both. My snowblower isn’t prepped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You and me both. My snowblower isn’t prepped Im going to get mine going Saturday, just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 I expect snow to rain to pounding snow Sunday night/Monday. Monday looks spectacular here once everything closes off. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Watch those GFS precip type maps don't agree with soundings. We went thru this last year. Precip maps show rain but here is the sounding. Isosnow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 I'm so jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now